ESTONIA
The media are describing NATO's refusal to give its Membership Action Plan to Ukraine and Georgia as the first serious setback in its expansion drive, and the first major Russian foreign policy victory since the 1990s. "This gives Eastern Europeans the creeps. Russia's open mention in this exchange of opinions [on NATO's extension] is destroying the long-standing confidence that nobody can make the alliance obey his own will. Still worse, NATO has made this decision irregardless of U.S. opinion...
It is clear that Georgia and Ukraine's geopolitical position will not change by December, and they will continue dealing with Russia single-handedly... Time is against Russia's neighbors, and the hope for Western help is diminishing." (Eesti Paevaleht, April 4)
"Moscow may remain content with the summit because it has managed to split the alliance. Even the 'firm' promise that these two states [Ukraine and Georgia] will join NATO one day is not as awful as Russia might think... Due to Russia's aggressive rhetoric, at its Bucharest summit NATO did not even discuss its new role in the world, having spent years on this issue." (Eesti Paevaleht, April 4)
The press is strongly critical of the Russian MPs' proposal to give Estonian and Latvian Russian-speaking non-citizens the right to visit Russia without visas. "The State Duma's plans to grant Baltic non-citizens the right of visa-free travel to Russia...will not encourage them to apply for Estonian or Latvian citizenship. In this way Russia, which is accusing NATO of undemocratic conduct, is doing much itself to perpetuate it in some allied countries." (Postimees, April 5)
LATVIA
Political analysts believe that Vladimir Putin is bent on keeping the reigns of power in his hands. Their conclusion is based on reports that he will probably head the ruling party and is likely to be confirmed as prime minister on the day after Dmitry Medvedev's inauguration. "Under President Medvedev, Putin will preserve considerable influence on domestic, economic and other developments. Medvedev has come to politics relatively recently, and has never occupied an elective office. Political power will become even more consolidated if Putin heads United Russia... Excessive concentration of power in Putin's hands is posing an increasing threat to democracy in Russia." (Latvijas Avize, April 8)
"It looks like Putin will score another record - in the speed of his endorsement as the head of the government... It seems that he does not trust his successor too much, that he is haunted by the fear that Medvedev may appoint another prime minister right after his inauguration. It is no accident that Putin will head the ruling party at its congress in mid-April. In this case, Medvedev will not come up with any surprises." (Chas, April 2)
The Russian language press predicts that NATO's eastward expansion threatens global security, and may lead to changes of European borders. "The threats emanating from Georgia and Ukraine's NATO entry are absolutely real, and may provoke a critical situation. If Georgia becomes a NATO member, and starts war against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow will have to defend Russian citizens, which account for a majority of their populations. NATO will have to help Georgia, which is fraught with a major armed conflict, and even a global war." (Biznes & Baltiya, April 7)
LITHUANIA
The media are critical of the Western European countries that have not supported Kiev and Tbilisi's bid for NATO's Membership Action Plan. Some observers explain this position by energy interests. "Despite the declared U.S. support, seven NATO countries voted against Kiev and Tbilisi (that is, for Moscow). One veto would be enough, but the militant Europeans decided to vote like this to let Moscow know that the most loyal buyers of gas are to the west of Kaliningrad. (Lietuvos Zinios, April 7)
Resuming the discussion of the North European gas pipeline on the Baltic Sea bed, the authors of some articles state with regret that the positions of Lithuania and Poland, which insist on the ground-based option for the pipe, will not be taken into account, and there will be no way of stopping the Russian-German project. "Lithuanian economic interests are understandable, just as Russia's stake in the project. The qualifications of the Nord Stream top managers are beyond doubt. It is also clear that the gas pipeline will be based on the Russian-German project. First, work on it has already gotten underway; second, Estonia's protests against the pipe being laid in its territorial waters will not change much - the pipe can always be moved a little. This is exactly what the Russian and German specialists are doing." (Litovsky Kurier, April 3)
BELARUS
Discussing Ukraine and Georgia's potential NATO entry, experts predict that Moscow will increase its political and economic pressure on Belarus, and will eventually absorb the republic. "The worst prospect is that Russia may soon have only one "toy" left - the Republic of Belarus. What if Moscow plays with us until we drop out from exhaustion?... Moreover, recently the Belarusian government has conducted a strange policy. Sometimes, it even seems that after declaring a real diplomatic war on the United States, President Alexander Lukashenko has decided to finally give in to Russia, thereby making the prospect of Belarus's incorporation into the motherland quite realistic." (Telegraf, April 2)
The press is again writing about Russian-U.S. agreements on a coordinated policy toward Belarus, aimed at prompting the downfall of the objectionable Lukashenko regime. During their meeting [in Sochi], the two presidents did not say a word about Belarus, at least on the record. This gives us food for thought, all the more so since both leaders are important for the Belarusian regime. One is the 'best friend' and main 'ally," whereas the other is the worst enemy without any quotes... Even superficial analysis of the situation around Belarus shows that the United States does not have the time or desire to draw Belarus into its orbit. It prefers to close the issue rather than to try and derive some benefit from it." (Telegraf, April 7)
UKRAINE
Some experts maintain that in Bucharest, Kiev received firm guarantees of its NATO entry. They note that the start of Ukraine's integration into the Western military alliance is bound to aggravate its relations with Russia. "Ukraine is entering a very complicated and responsible period in relations with Russia, which is bound to be displeased about this decision, and will put more pressure on Ukraine. Our neighbors are adamantly against the NATO summit's decisions. They probably expected a tougher and more humiliating approach. But now they will start talking about the triumph of Russian diplomacy... But this is not true because the road to NATO has not been closed to us. Its doors are open, at least partially." (Den, April 4)
Commentators unanimously explain the decision not to give the Membership Action Plan to Ukraine by the economic dependence of EU countries on Russian energy supplies. They regret that Ukraine did not give enough attention to cooperating with major European states. "During its independent years, Ukraine failed to become an interesting partner for Germany and France, at least interesting enough not to be sacrificed so easily and cynically for their desire to play it safe and appease Russia. Paris and Berlin may keep saying that this decision has nothing to do with Moscow, but we do not have any illusions. We are absolutely convinced that we were rejected in Bucharest only because of Russia." (Zerkalo Nedeli, April 4)
ARMENIA
Experts advise not to perceive the delay in granting the Membership Action Plan to Ukraine and Georgia as Moscow's victory. "Russia has really scored a victory, but it is limited to the suspension of the issue. Russia won a similar 'victory' last year, when it succeeded in delaying Martti Ahtisaari's plan of Kosovo settlement, which was an absurd thing to do. Everyone knows what happened in Kosovo later. Moscow is probably still interpreting victory as a neutralization of successes and aspirations of others rather than its own achievements. This is a destructive and pointless approach." (Aravot, April 4)
The press is allergic to the agreements between Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan on railroads. Experts believe that Armenia's interests have been ignored once again, and predict that it is becoming politically and economically dependent on Russia. "On March 30, spokesmen for Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan discussed railroad cooperation in Tehran... The results of the Tehran talks show that Armenia and its railroads do not exist for any of them... Armenia is isolated, and being ousted from regional processes." (Iravunq, April 4)
GEORGIA
The media are describing the results of the NATO summit in Bucharest as a serious political setback not only for Georgia, but also for the United States. Moscow has outwitted Washington, and the latter will have to work hard in order to revive its positions on the geopolitical scene. "The Bucharest summit has shown that Europe, or rather Russia has upstaged America, and that America is no longer running the whole show in the world... Nobody knows when Georgia will receive the Membership Action Plan, but it is clear that America will try to restore its image and insist on NATO's expansion to Georgia and Ukraine... In the future, America will have to exert major efforts in order to regain its leadership in global politics, and be able to influence Europe." (Akhali Taoba, April 4)
Many analysts believe that the United States is still using Georgia as a bargaining chip in its relations with Russia. Therefore, a setback in Bucharest was predetermined, and President Bush simply lied when giving hope to his Georgian colleague Mikhail Saakashvili on the eve of the NATO summit. "What a shame that George W. Bush is so cynically cheating on the Georgian president. Bush is lying to him, and laughing at him. Putin and Bush have already struck a deal... They decide on everything behind our back - everything without exception!" (Alia, April 3)
AZERBAIJAN
Before the Bucharest forum, experts did not doubt that Ukraine and Georgia would be allowed to join the Membership Action Plan despite contradictions within NATO. "If before the summit Bush had first talked with the Russian leaders, and then with the Ukrainian ones, it would be clear that Moscow continues to determine the depth of Ukraine's integration with NATO, and that the United States asks its permission for reaching out. But Bush arrived in Kiev on April 1, that is, before the NATO summit, not to mention his Sochi meeting with the Russian leaders." (Echo, April 2)
"Moscow is unable to offer resistance to NATO, and can only take offense." (Echo, April 3)
These predictions have not come true, but experts are not rushing to acknowledge the Kremlin's victory. They believe that Moscow's aggressive policy on post-Soviet territory will increase the striving of Tbilisi and Kiev to get out from its orbit of influence. "Moscow is triumphant. What is most alarming is that it is ready to perceive the summit's decision as all but a napkin on which Stalin and Churchill were dividing spheres of influence... But it is too early to put an equals sign between Yalta and Bucharest... A decision on the Membership Action Plan may be made in December." (Echo, April 5)
The press is warning that Russia's policy on "frozen conflicts" will not only considerably complicate Georgia and Ukraine's NATO entry, but will also create more problems for post-Soviet countries. "Obstacles on Georgia and Ukraine's road to NATO will create more problems for post-Soviet countries with 'frozen conflicts.' Russia will be increasing its pressure on them - directly in the cases of Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, and through Armenia onto Azerbaijan." (Zerkalo, April 5)
KAZAKHSTAN
The press is divided in assessing NATO's expansion to CIS countries. Some authors are calling it a catalyst for tensions in international relations, whereas others believe that it is inevitable, and the ineffective CIS may well be disbanded. "Set up in the Cold War, the NATO military and political bloc is growing stronger. Ignoring the UN Charter, and replacing peacemakers, it is adding tensions to international relations, which are already complicated. The bloc is continuously expanding, which does not promote normal good neighborly relations between countries. This is seen from Ukraine and Georgia's attempt to join the alliance." (Aikyn-Apta, April 3)
"It is obvious that Russia will be emphatically negative toward CIS countries' NATO membership. But in this case, the CIS nations should convene an urgent meeting and decide whether they need this amorphous and ineffective association at all, and what can they replace it with to prevent an open confrontation in case of post-Soviet countries joining NATO." (Delovaya Nedelya, April 3)
TAJIKISTAN
Some authors are writing about cooler relations between Moscow and Dushanbe. Experts attribute this to rapprochement between Russia and Uzbekistan, which is affecting Tajik interests in many cases. Moscow is also criticized for its failure to provide investment promised during the conclusion of a treaty in 2004. "Now that four years have passed, it transpires that Moscow has derived all the benefits, whereas Tajikistan has received nothing... The Russian company RUSAL did not provide investment to complete the construction of the Rogunskaya hydro power plant, and changed its position on the already negotiated issue of modernizing an aluminum plant, and building another one in the south of the republic for $600 million. As a result, Tajikistan had to unilaterally denounce its agreement with the company." (Zindagi, April 3)
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