As India celebrates its 68th Independence Day on August 15, most observers focus on its economic progress. The country is ranked the world’s tenth largest by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). This fiscal year the economy is expected to grow at 5.2-5.7 per cent, and according to UN 2013 figures, the foreign direct investment (FDI) into India grew by 17 per cent to $28 billion.
Little wonder that now all eyes are on India, trying to guess what direction the new Indian government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen for the country.
The US top officials have made a special point of coming over to New Delhi over the past month. US Secretary of State John Kerry visited India at the end of July, followed by the US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.
Independent expert Dr Harinder Sekhon, based in New Delhi, India, is evaluating the prospects for India-US relations.
“Chuck Hagel’s visit was a part of the US-India strategic dialog, which has been an ongoing dialog for a number of years now. Chuck Hagel came following Secretary Kerry’s visit to India. Ever since Modi has become the Prime Minister, India has been getting the impression that we are getting wooed by the US, because there is a great deal of concern, considering that the relations had really started faltering and had somewhat plateaued during the last few months of the earlier Government in India, when we had the UPA Government, the Manmohan Singh Government.
And the lowest point in the US-India relations was reached in December last year, when the famous Devyani Khobragade, the Indian diplomat was arrested and strip-searched in NY and her domestic helper’s family was flown out of India. I mean, they were Indian citizens and they were flown out of India, using the American taxpayers money, which, rightly so, has caused a great deal of anger and resentment amongst the Indian Government and the Indian establishment, and the Indian people.
And we were getting the feeling that the US thought that it could dictate certain terms to us. But with the coming of Modi I think they are taking us a little more seriously, more so especially the manner in which Modi had been treated since 2005. He’d been denied a visa. And it is the Americans who started seeking him out, when it became apparent that there was some kind of a BJP waving in there and there would be a change of government over here. And from the Indian side, from the BJP’s side and the India Government there was nothing of the sort that – please, give the Prime Minister a visa. So, it was President Obama who called him up and they were the ones who’ve been seeking for better relations with India.
And of course, we are very pragmatic people and we would like to have good relations with every country. And we got a very nice traditional thing with the USSR and it is continued with Russia. With China, India does not want to be used as a bulwark against any country. And we would like to keep the options open and have really good relations within our neighborhood. So, that extends to East Asia, China, Russia and, of course, the US.
But coming more specifically to the US-India strategic dialog in Kerry’s visit, earlier we were getting the feeling that America is only paying sympathy and saying that India is the most important partner for the 21st century. But America was talking very big without putting anything on the ground. And now, I think they realized that this is a very serious Government.
And I was in Washington in June and spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations, and made it very clear that Modi is very pragmatic, he is not going to do anything to upset the US or to break off, or make things difficult, or create any hurdles in the US-India relations. But, at the same time, he
would ask for specific deliverables from the US to move US-India relations forward. So, it is not going to be some high-sounding phrases and India is going to be pacified or feel happy about it.
When we are talking about defense modernization and sales of weapons to India, there would have to be definite deliverables on a case-by-
case basis and a transfer of technology, and a joint co-development platform. This is what India is seeking for. And that is why I attended the talk by Chuc
k Hagel, the only public event he had in India. I attended that and he has actually stated that we are looking at defense trade and technology issues.
So, the DTTI in the US-India defense relations is something which is going to get a lot of attention from the Americans. He came with a very big delegation of defense personnel and technical experts in all. India is going to sign, because we have very critical shortages in the armed forces and we are definitely going to look at all of those things.
And another thing, earlier, when Secretary Kerry came, that was also the time he tried to exert pressure on India to agree to the WTO negotiations. So, while Secretary Kerry was here, the Indian Government did not succumb to any pressure and we said that we would not sign the WTO negotiations, which were under way earlier this month, until and unless our concerns about food security were addressed.
And we are very critical because we are an agricultural-based economy. We feel that the WTO, with its insistence that you can only keep 10% of your food grain production in reserve, it is not enough, because we have all kinds of natural calamities, like famines and stuff like that.
And we are still a developing country. We have to rush food supplies in an emergency. We have over 650 million people living in the rural areas. So, they have to be given food, first. And this is one of the important manifestoes of the new Government – to revive the economy. And if you do not reach out to the most marginalized sections of the Indian society and bring them up the economic development scale, you are going to be voted out of power the next time.
And in a democracy you have to, because… I mean, as this happened now, the anti-incumbency factor was so strong, that the Congress was voted
out of power. And here is the Government which has come on the promise of reviving the economy, creating jobs, reviving the economic growth rate. So, these things become very critical. Though we realize that we have to carry on with the global regime, we are part of a globalized world, but, at the same time, that kind of globalization and multinational and multidimensional foreign policy cannot be at the cost of domestic constraints and compulsions”.
Nguyen Xuan Thang, President of the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, believes that India’s economy will exceed that of the US by the middle of this century. Now, Indian Commerce Secretary Rajiv Kher has said India should focus on increasing its trade with Latin America, Africa and t
he BRICS nations. He also noted that India had not explored to the fullest potential trade prospects with BRICS nations, especially Russia and China.
Says Nandan Unnikrishnan, Vice President and Senior Fellow Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, India.
“India definitely has a tremendous potential and in the next 20-25 years is likely to emerge as one of the leading economies in the world. There is little doubt about that. Also, there is a tremendous potential and scope for improvement of the economic ties with the BRICS countries, particularly Russia and China – that would also be true.
Do you think we could expand on the future of the India-Russia economic relationship? What is the new Government’s vision on that?
I don’t think there will be much difference in terms of the approach between the old Government and the new Government, in terms of the relationship and development of economic ties with Russia. If there will be any difference at all, it will be that the new Government will probably bring in a littl
e bit more energy into developing these ties.
The areas of development are clear to all of us. And if I were to elaborate on them, I would say that one of the most promising areas is developing some kind of relationship between India and the Eurasian Union, which has recently come into being with the treaty between Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan.
India is negotiating kind of an understanding with the three countries and is likely to come up with some kind of a treaty shortly. That would be
of great benefit, because then India would be able to access the markets of these three countries with a single tariff and be able to sell its products.
The other areas, which is purely at the bilateral level between Russia and India, I think we must look at the new solutions to developing our military industrial relationship, military technical cooperation, in other words.
And there is a large scope for us to develop, I would say, a nontraditional cooperation in the areas like pharmaceuticals, high technology, information technology – these are all the areas in which the potential is tremendous. And I think both sides agree that we need to find ways to remove some of the bottlenecks of red tape and bureaucratic delays that are stopping the development here.
The other area which has a tremendous scope and potentially is a win-win for everyone is somehow energizing the relationship in providing each other with the energy security. India is an energy-hungry country. Russia has the tremendous supplies of hydrocarbons. And the ability to supply each other with the energy security would go a long way in fomenting the relationship.
There’ve also been some rumors about, switching from the dollar to our national currencies – Ruble and Rupee - in our bilateral trade.
Yes, I understand that is something that the BRICS are discussing in any case and there already is a substantial movement in terms of that happening between Russia and China. And I think the scope of expanding some of it to the Indo-Russian trade is also quite practical.
The recent weeks saw a lot of activity on the part of the US…
You know, your Ambassador in India Mr. Kadakin once put it in a very colorful manner. He said that India is the bride who is being wooed by many suitors. And amongst those suitors there is also the US. And therefore, the US would say a lot of nice things, as all the other suitors would, because they are waiting for the wedding to be consummated. But I don’t think India has decided on the wedding yet, it is going to take some more time. And I don’t think India is going to be taking a decision on the basis of sweet words alone”.
