After four months in office French Prime Minister Manuel Valls resigned following a row over the austerity policies, Angela Merkel is responsible for. However, Valls seemed to have no intention of stepping down and quickly formed a new cabinet to keep faltering economy afloat with just the same unpopular austerity measures.
Studio guest Sergei Utkin, Head of Department of Strategic Assessment at the Center for Situation Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Charles Jaigu, political analyst, Le Figaro's correspondent and Bruno Cautrès, expert from Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Is it some sort of a game there going on or does it have long-term strategic implications?
Sergei Utkin: It does have the implications and, of course, it damages the positions of France in the European decision making, because if you have that much domestic trouble, you cannot really be the driving force in the EU. On the other hand, I would stress that the substance of the debate is not just about the austerity, there is a strong personal note to this. President Hollande is very unpopular. At the same time, the Government is more popular than the President and there are people in the Government who hope they have a political future. And they want to sort of dissociate themselves from the unpopular President.
For Hollande and Valls this is an attempt to save the economy. If they succeed with this, be it through the austerity measures or through the other policies, they will gain in popularity and, eventually, there will be a decent result of Hollande’s presidency, which seems hardly to be the case as of today.
What is your take on what is going in France at the moment?
Charles Jaigu: I want to point out one fact – there is no austerity policy in France, not at all. It is just that the left Socialist Party is trying to give this idea to the French opinion that there is an austerity policy, but there is not. In England they did cut 500 000 public sector jobs. In Italy, they reduced the salaries. In France, they don’t do this. So, there is no austerity policy and the margin of maneuver for François Hollande is very thin, because he doesn’t want to implement the austerity policy.
Is it a good thing or a bad thing for France?
Charles Jaigu: I think austerity is very necessary. The debt is extremely high and we can’t go on like this forever. The markets are going to make it very hard on the French debt at some point. So far they’ve been very kind and very forgiving, because we are the second economy in the Eurozone. But it is not going to carry on and François Hollade is very aware of this. He needs to make sure that the markets are not going to higher the interest rates on the debt and he needs to reassure the economic climate, which is very pessimistic in France.
How do the French people see that?
Charles Jaigu: The French people are the worst clients ever to talk about austerity. When you talk about austerity in Germany or in England, people think – okay, we have to do it. When Cameron did his political campaign he said beforehand that he would implement the austerity policy. It is true that the crisis in England was tougher than in France. The French opinion would be absolutely furious, but at some point, when the Government doesn’t have any other choice it would just have to do it.
So far, Hollande has been able to avoid tough austerity policy, he’s just sent signals that are enough for Brussels to let him do what he has to do. But his main target is to really make sure that the business is going to be okay for the two coming years, because it is his last chance to lower the unemployment. If he doesn’t lower the unemployment, he is out of the political game.
Bruno Cautrès: I would agree that it is not austerity. But, at the same time, we have some of it. The salaries of the public sector are blocked for many years now. We have some cuttings in public expenditures. But it is true that it is not austerity, like it used to be the case in the UK, for instance. The other thing is that even the word “austerity” is like a taboo in France for many of the French politicians. The word austerity evokes the mood of the 1970’es or the 1980’es. So, this is one of the difficulties in France – to make reforms without saying that you are doing so.
François Hollade and Manuel Valls, they are really the reformists. And I think that what happens now is that François Hollade is just showing who is who more exactly. When he said during the 2012 campaign – I don’t like the finance – it was more than rhetoric. And two days ago we’ve seen Manuel Valls going to the trade unions of the businessmen just to say – I love enterprises. And he repeated that twice.
