Voters in Brazil will be returning to the polls on 26th October for a second round face-off in the country’s presidential election. Dilma Rousseff, whose party has run Brazil since 2003, will face a business-friendly candidate Aecio Neves. Dr. George Conyne, History Professor at the University of Kent, UK, and Angel Ricardo Martinez, Correspondent La Prenza in Panama City, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
How different these two candidates are in terms of their political ambitions, policies and so on?
Dr. George Conyne: As far as we can tell right now, on close inspection they look more and more similar. And the apparent courting that the reputedly right-wing candidate Aecio Neves is giving right now to the supporters of the Socialist candidate, who came in third in the election, indicates this. Normally, in a European context we would expect these two groups to be very much opposed to each other. But the Socialist Party has already indorsed Mr. Neves’s attempts to oust the President from power and we are now waiting on whether or not the former Environmental Minister Marina Silva will follow that. And these are supposed to be more or less the extreme of the two candidates. So, these parties are very close to each other and have shown a great pragmatism to do what Brazilians want in the past.
What would it take for Dilma Rousseff to win?
Dr. George Conyne: The polls have her at 46%, two points in front of Neves. She could get 4% of that remaining 10% undecided vote and manage to get home. Reassuring her supporters on the left and in the poor areas of Brazil, while not alienating the middle class is obviously going to be her course of action.
And what would it take for Neves?
Dr. George Conyne: Part of the reason why Neves was able to come in second place, when he’d been in the third place for so long, is that there is a real clear demand in the Brazilian public for change. And if he can exploit that demand, he will manage to get more than 50% of the votes.
Why are the voters unhappy about Dilma Rousseff and her party?
Angel Ricardo Martinez: I think there is a growing sense not only in Brazil, but in the region that many of the governments, especially left-wing governments that have been in power for many years, they have been mired in a lot of corruption scandals and stuff like that. So, while the people agree with what they are doing, I think the people are getting tired of so much corruption. They see that sometimes just a change is needed.
But in case of Dilma Rousseff, she was able to increase the minimum wage, when there was the global economic crisis, she was able to lift quite a bit of people out of poverty and start building the Brazilian middle class. Is that going to tip the scale into her favour?
Angel Ricardo Martinez: There is no doubt that the government of the Workers’ Party has done a lot of things that are very good for Brazil. But, at the same time, no one can deny that there’s been a lot of things that a lot of people are angry about. So, in a way a lot of voters are caught between a rock and a hard place. They would like to punish the PT for many things, but at the same time, they conscious that many good things have been achieved and that, maybe, Mr. Neves could even be worse. And it is also unpredictable. Even if Marina Silva indorses Mr. Neves, there is a big doubt if the voters of Silva are going to go with him.
In terms of Brazil’s membership in BRICS, should Neves win this race, how will that change it or will this remain as it is?
Dr. George Conyne: I don’t see that Neves is saying anything that is going to change the basic thrust of Brazilian foreign policy right across the board. This appears to have become a campaign very much about the domestic issues and that hunger for change.
In terms of the relationship between Brazil and Russia, which way it might go in the future, depending on who wins this race?
Angel Ricardo Martinez: I don’t think that if Mr. Neves wins, he is going to drastically change the foreign policy of Brazil, especially with regards to such an important country as Russia. Right now Brazil sees itself like a leader of an entire block of Latin America and challenging the current US-centric world is something that is very important in South America.
