adio VR is looking into the issue together with Csaba Toth, the Director of Strategy at Republikon Institute in Budapest, and Ambassador André Erdős, former Permanent Representative of Hungary to the UN.
Speaking at a meeting with Hungarian counterpart Peter Szijjártó on Tuesday Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the Hungarian government's "opening to the east" policy and the Chinese government's "Silk Road diplomacy" concept are clearly reinforcing each other. "It is very much perceptible that regional cooperation between China and the CEE region is handled as a priority in Beijing, and China appreciates Hungary acting as a bridgehead," he said.
In his turn Szijjártó pointed out that Hungary has attracted the highest Chinese investment in central Europe, at around $3.5 bln, adding that Hungary represents one of the best transport routes for Chinese exports to Europe.
The upbeat mode was spoiled by a wave of protests which rocked the country as thousands of people took to the streets to protests against the internet tax. The protests have been openly supported by the outgoing EU digital commissioner Neelie Kroes who regards the new tax as a threat to both political freedom in Hungary and for EU economic growth. Last month US President Barack Obama included Hungary in a list of countries trying to intimidate civil society groups, and several days ago the US withdrew travel visas of several Hungarian officials.
The position of Western partners drew an angry response from Hungarian Parliamentary Speaker and Fidesz MP László Kövér who, as quoted by Hungarian online daily origo.hu., said: ”If Brussels wants to tell a country how it should be governed, then it resembles Moscow before the change of regime”. “Since the end of communism, he said, the governments and financial leaders of some Western countries believe they can do everything”.
The speaker reportedly said that, if this is the direction the EU takes, then Hungary should consider leaving the union. But according to origo.hu, Kövér called it “a nightmare” scenario, and he doubts it would come to that. The media chose to quote only the first part of his phrase…
So, as tension keeps growing – what kind of prospects is Hungary facing?
Says Csaba Toth, the Director of Strategy at Republikon Institute in Budapest:
I think you need to start by saying that this has been a trend in relations between Hungary and the EU; they have been deteriorating since 2010. And of course, all the statements made in the past by Viktor Orbán in the last, let’s say, half a year, when he talked about illiberal democracy and the rhetoric used sometimes against the EU, have been negatively received in the EU.
So, in all these latest instances the Hungarian Government seems to be communicating in many voices at the same time. Some of them are saying – we are strong allies of the US. But some others are saying – well, we should be more critical of the US and the EU in general. All of this creates a lot of confusion.
But I think the reason behind this is that many in the US and in the EU perceive the Hungarian democracy to be deteriorating, perceive the Government of Viktor Orbán to have gone too far in its measures against the rule of law and democratic principles, and they are voicing their criticism about that. To which the Government usually responds – well, first of all, this is not true, because we have free and fair elections in Hungary, and second of all, these are internal Hungarian matters. The latest instances, I think, fit into this trend very nicely.
Talking about the protests, people were quite upset about that new Internet tax. And the protests haven't died away with the decision of the Parliament to introduce a cap on the Internet tax. How about that? Is it an indication of a deeper protest mood accumulating in Hungary?
Csaba Toth: First of all, it is always very difficult when one specific measure results in a protest. But I think there are many factors contributing to it. Number one is that this Internet tax that the Government plans to introduce, which is not a lot of money, it is 2-3 Euros per month, but it is something that the voters can feel taken out of their pockets. Whereas the macroeconomic situation, the situation with unemployment growth are of course comprehensible, but they are very far away and they are very abstract.
And this is something that many people using the Internet can relate to very easily. They can calculate how much they would actually have to pay on a monthly basis. And of course, this is a real pocketbook issue which always affects voters.
But, on the other hand, it is also a symbolic issue of a Government seemingly not in touch with voters’ moods, not in touch with how the modern social media and the Internet in general has become so much more important, especially to the younger people than it previous was. And the Government is acting as a detached and sometimes very anachronistic body.
And the third of all is the element that it is also in line with some of the symbolic measures we already talked about. For instance, the question of the media freedom. The media situation that we have in Hungary is not a very fortunate one, with the Government and its allies having a very tight and strict control on much of the media. But of course, the Internet is one of the freest spaces of media. Some portray this as an attack by the Government on some of these free media and the free space for the media.
So, all these factors, I think, contribute to come together in such a mass protest, which sees middle class people, urban people and very many young people going out to protest – people who usually are not very active in the political processes.
You are saying that the Government seems to out of touch with the electorate and the people are obviously exasperated. Does that imply any problem for the Government?
Csaba Toth: Of course, it is a problem for the Government. But, on the other hand, this Government has just won the elections this year. And all these problems seem to be coming after the last election, let that be the American criticism or the internal protests. The big problem for people critical of the Government is that there seems to be no viable political alternative or opposition force arrayed against the Government. At this point the opposition parties are relatively weak. And it seems like the protesters have no intention of entering politics on their own.
So, this is one area in which the Government can feel rather confident. And of course, they still have three years. So, they do have time to settle this question. The question is: can they pull themselves together after this crisis. So, it will certainly hurt the Government, but it will not result in any instability or Government problems in the short run.
How do you see the future of the relations between Hungary and the EU, and the US?
Csaba Toth: I think these relations will continue to be problematic. I mean, Hungary has been a very harsh critic of the EU, and not just a regular Euroskeptic critic in some of the circles on the right. Brussels is trying to consciously interfere in the Hungarian domestic affairs. They also see the same about the US.
Sometimes I think they fail to understand that the criticism voiced by these bodies is a genuine criticism. It is not driven by any other interest, but by the interest that Hungary is part of the NATO alliance, it is also part of the EU. And both these institutions rely on some sort of fundamental values, fundamental democratic principles, which ideally, especially in the EU, constitute a body of values as well.
And when these institutions see that the values are being undermined, then that creates problems. And I don’t believe these problems would go away in the short run.
Perhaps, the good news is that Hungary is not alone. I mean, there is an old and seasoned NATO member like the UK, which is also voicing its discontent over the EU policies. And there is France, there is Italy…
Csaba Toth: The Euroskepticism is very different in these countries. In the UK it is driven by partly the economic sector, but also by immigration and the factor of the rise of the UKIP. In the UK the majority of the population has never been very pro-European. And it is even less pro-European now.
Hungary is a different case. In Hungary, I think, the Government by itself would have no problems with the EU, the Euroskepticism is created, sort of. Whereas in the UK it is more like the Government is responding to a popular sentiment, here it is the other way around. There is the EU criticism against the Government and the Government wishes to create an anti-EU sentiment in the population which is not genuinely anti-European. It is above the European average, which still relatively high when it comes to the attitudes towards the EU.
Says Ambassador André Erdős, former Permanent Representative of Hungary to the UN:
Well, this process has started much earlier, obviously. You talk about the questions that have attracted the attention in Europe, and not only in Europe, to Hungary. It goes back to the change of Government, when the new Government took the reins of power in 2010. And from then on several decisions and measures that were adopted by the Government raised some concerns in Brussels and elsewhere – in the US, in the Euro-Atlantic community, if I might use this expression. Various steps, decisions, laws that were enacted in the field of energy, of telecommunications, banking, retail – all these clearly pointed in a direction which – let’s take it very frankly – was not welcomed with enthusiasm elsewhere in the EU.
This process continued and there are many other steps taken clearly, which were accompanied by a rhetoric by the members of Government or politicians, a rhetoric which clearly was in many-many cases – I would even use the word – hostile towards the EU. Various expressions, various descriptions of what we are doing were used here. For instance, one of the most outstanding expressions that has been in use ever since, because it was very expressive of the way certain people regarded Brussels and the EU, and that expression was and is that we have been waging a liberation struggle against Brussels, which obviously strikes at least my eyes. I'm obviously speaking about my own perception, but I noted that very many people share this opinion of mine.
So, this liberation struggle and several very rude labels that were used vis-à-vis the EU have created a strange atmosphere in Europe. And then, as time went by people in Europe started to understand that here we are talking about a systemic problem. So, the decisions and certain attitudes were not limited to a certain sector of society, but they were all encompassing the whole of Hungary. And all this rhetoric I've mentioned and certain economic steps were accompanied by a narrative which, perhaps, was very expressively shown by posters and various other public inscriptions that you saw, especially when we had the oncoming elections. We had three elections this year: the parliamentary elections, we had the European elections, we recently had the local elections.
And then, when you saw everywhere in the streets ”We demand more respect for the Hungarians”. I do not think that I have to dwell on the absurdity of this slogan that was used, which, again, conveyed an ethnocentric message. This is what I think. And an ethnocentric message has created some kind of a nationalistic mood, which clearly is not very helpful not only for Hungary, but for Europe which has had a very turbulent history, as we know. And Hungary also had its share of this history. And there are politicians, there are movements, there are parties which try to build a political capital on this here in Hungary. And I must tell you, from my own experience, we are a mankind and Europe as well, and Hungary as well. People are still vulnerable in the sense that populism, demagogic statements that are so attractive, can honestly seduce very many people.
And this is what I see here, unfortunately. It is very easy to fall into this hole, but to get out of this hole, especially when it comes to people’s minds, the psychology of people, this is the most awesome challenge that anyone faces when somewhere there is a conflict, there is a war, there is a very tense situation. You can rebuild a country politically, if you will, you can start your economy moving, but when it comes to clearing up the minds of the people – that is the most terrible, most awesome, most difficult challenge. And I'm very sorry to see that gradually we are falling into this trap. We are going into a direction the way back from which will be much more difficult.
So, this is where we stand at this point in time. And, yes, the EU looks towards Hungary in a rather peculiar way. We can see this from many statements, but also from the publically expressed views, from the certain members of governments in Europe to the administration in Brussels. When it comes, for instance, to this latest step that triggered these vast demonstrations in Hungary, last time on Sunday, and then Tuesday evening where we had, according to certain estimations, the participants varying from 50 000 to 100 000. Here again the EU officials expressed their dismay at the decision that was taken by the Hungarian Government. Here we are talking about the so-called Internet tax, the taxation of Internet use.
This is just one example, one detail of the very many things that have been going on. And clearly, if I speak for myself, I'm not so much interested in the price of milk tonight and tomorrow morning, but I know that most of the people are interested in that and how they can survive economically, whether they will be able to ensure a decent life for their families. I totally understand this. But from my point of view, as I lived in this atmosphere of international relations, it is very important to place Hungary in the right stream and in the right direction, and to let Hungary just lag behind and become a very strange member of the EU, of the new Euro-Atlantic community.
