Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is seemingly in a rut over what to do to secure the release of Kenji Goto, the remaining Japanese national being held captive by ISIL.
The terrorists have demanded a tradeoff whereby they would exchange him for a failed suicide bomber imprisoned in Jordan, but it’s not likely that the US will allow this to happen. More probable, however, would be that Abe exploits this crisis to accelerate his country’s remilitarization, but doing so under an ‘anti-terrorism’ aegis and by deepening commitment to its overseas base in Djibouti.
This would not only provide Japan’s military-industrial complex with a fertile testing ground for some of its China-directed spyware, but with its Maritime Self-Defense Forces continually transiting through the disputed East and South China Seas en route to East Africa, they can also irritate Beijing and perhaps even conduct more bilateral exercises with its Indian rival.
Taking The Constitution Out of Context
Abe has been the ardent pro-American ‘captain’ of the Pentagon’s ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ ever since his inauguration at the end of 2012, going as far as to reinterpret his country’s pacifist constitution last summer to pave the way for Japan’s de-facto remilitarization.
While Article 9 of the document strictly prohibits the creation of an official armed forces, the Land of the Rising Sun has steadfastly created powerful ‘self-defense’ forces over the decades that essentially fulfill that role anyhow.
Abe’s contribution to this trend has been to allow them to partake in collective self-defense operations, thereby opening the door for their international deployment in support of the US, Japan’s only mutual-defense ally.
Abe’s decision has thus far been the crowning achievement of the US’ entire Pivot to Asia, since it basically transforms his country into a proactive proxy force that can greatly assist with the naval containment of China.
By beefing up its military forces and provocatively projecting power in or near the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, Japan can position itself as the US’ chief Lead From Behind partner for East Asia. Complementing this has been the decision by the US, Japan, and South Korea to share intelligence about North Korea, thus creating an organizational framework that could one day be easily redirected against China.
Japan’s insubordination to American military logic wouldn’t have been possible had Abe not misleadingly argued that the constitutional reinterpretation was necessary “to protect the lives of our citizens”, a ‘justification’ that now comes into perfect play with the current ISIL hostage crisis.
From Non-State Actors To State-On-State Consequences
Haruna Yukawa, the first Japanese citizen to be captured and subsequently beheaded by ISIL, illegally entered Syria last year to cavort with the anti-government militants there. He had experienced a lot of personal issues prior to undertaking his fatal trip, as Newsweek Magazine wrote in August that “he had changed his name to the feminine-sounding Haruna, attempted to kill himself by cutting off his genitals and came to believe he was the reincarnation of a cross-dressing Manchu princess who had spied for Japan in World War Two.”
Nevertheless, the ‘reincarnated royal’ was eventually captured by ISIL, and his friend Kenji Goto also befell the same fate when he, too, illegally entered Syria to go look for him.
The reckless and irresponsible actions of these two non-state actors may now carry with them concrete state-on-state consequences, since the global spotlight on ISIL has now compelled their government to tackle the issue of their kidnapping.
The attempted Jordanian suicide bomber that ISIL wants in exchange for Goto will likely not be released, meaning that he, too, could be beheaded and Japan would thus be left with two needlessly decapitated citizens.
Japan earlier pledged $200 million in ‘humanitarian aid’ to the ‘anti-ISIL coalition’ (hence the terrorists’ earlier demand for that amount in order to release both hostages), but it’s expected to take a more active role in the campaign if Kenji is killed, and it would do so under the new pretext of ‘protecting the lives of its citizens’.
Djibouti’s Place In Japan’s Mideast Jigsaw
Enter Djibouti, the location of Japan’s only overseas military base. The tiny East African nation already hosts American and French bases, with the former having been admittedly used to bomb militants in nearby Yemen and neighboring Somalia. Japan opened up the facility to scant notice in 2011 when it was actively involved in the anti-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden.
Its Maritime Self-Defense Forces (their version of a Navy) were deployed there as a type of policing operation, which was the loophole used by the previous government to get around the country’s constitution. The recently constructed base is located near the nation’s airport, and thus has runways to accommodate drones that could be used to gather intelligence on ISIL if the decision is made.
It should go without saying that the in-field experience gained by Japan’s operators in the Mideast theatre against ISIL could then be transferred over to the East Asian one against China.
Other than conditioning Japan’s drone operators with real-life training, Tokyo’s commitment to the ‘anti-ISIL coalition’ could also see it expand its maritime ‘support’ service to its American ally there. No matter if it’s only symbolic or logistical, this would entail sending some of its forces from East Asia all the way to the Mideast (be it to be stationed in Djibouti or in an American facility in the Gulf), thereby possibly taking them through disputed portions of the East and South China Seas in a purposely provocative show of force that would irritate China.
What’s more, Japan’s naval units would then have regular opportunities to train with their Indian counterparts, who are eager to send a message to China. Both Tokyo and New Delhi also have ambitions to exercise more influence in Southeast Asia, which China sees as its strategically vulnerable backyard, so it’s a win-win for them at Beijing’s expense.
The key to this entire strategy, however, rests with Abe exploiting his compatriots’ capture in Syria, which may prove too tempting of an opportunity for him or his American advisors to pass up.
