Andrei Fyodorov, the former Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, the Director of the Center for Political Research Foundation, Anchal Vohra, CNN TV anchor, New Delhi, Manish Chand, a foreign affairs analyst, and Founder-Editor of India Writes Network.
What do you think India is trying to do here?
Andrei Fyodorov: First of all, I’d like to say that India is also one of the battlefields now. Traditionally, India was linked to the Soviet Union and then to Russia. Let’s not forget that 90% of the ammunition of the Indian army came from the Soviet Union and Russia: tanks, helicopters, jetfighters, submarines etc. And India is one of the biggest arms markets for Russia. The US is now trying to enter this market. This is also a deal which is very interesting for the US. The second thing is the role of India in BRICS. India is one of the key countries, together with China. And, of course, it is very important for the US to influence India.
And also, there is one more issue coming in the future. This is the situation around Afghanistan which, from my point of view, in April will lead to the crash of the current Kabul regime and the triumphal return of the Taliban to power. India is one of the forces which can play an absolutely new role in the regional security. By the way, the new situation in Afghanistan can also strengthen the Indian-Pakistani relations on the governmental level. And, of course, India is interesting for the US as the country which will be the most populated in the world in two years. And India is one of the sources of IT technologists and many other things.
So, for the US it is not a market, it is a very important political scene where the US was not so active before, and sometimes was not allowed to be active by the previous Indian leadership.
If we are going to go with the idea of India being a battleground, then what kind of victory or advantage could the US give India that, say, Russia can’t or any of India’s other partners?
Anchal Vohra: What India is expecting from the US is that huge investments will come from it. India is also expecting that technology will come. One of the advantages that you can, perhaps, already see is President Obama backing India as far as the four technology groups are concerned: Wassenaar arrangement, Australia group, NSG and MTCR. So, this means that India will be in the high club as far as technology transfer is concerned. Also, India expects the US to invest more. Already a lot of memorandums of understanding have been signed, whether it is to do with US-India investment initiative or US infrastructure companies helping India in creating the infrastructure.
And India is expecting a certain position on the global stage, because, if I'm not wrong, this is the first time that our Prime Minister said that India and the US are global partners. And President Obama was also saying that if this relationship really has to come to fruition, then India will have to do a lot more. So, it is investment, it is technology and also a certain place in the world.
President Obama renewed the ten-year defense pact with New Delhi. Does it really come as a game changer in the whole story of the defense ties?
Anchal Vohra: The nuclear deal certainly was a game changer in many ways. But as far as the defense agreement that you are talking about, yes, the Defense Framework Agreement has been renewed with the DTTI as a new component that has entered that. It is for the first time that the two countries have announced technology transfer and co-production in four areas, including the UAVs “Raven”. But yes, you are right, on the R-day parade President Obama was watching a lot of military equipment that India has got from Russia. And the Russians have already been India’s partners, as far as defense is concerned.
If you remember, when President Putin was here, our Prime Minster made it clear that the relationship with Russia would continue, but India would diversify. To what level would it diversify, it still remains to be seen. At this moment India is only buying off-the-shelf from the US. And this cooperation has just only begun as far as making in India is concerned or the tech transfer is concerned. At the moment it is not close to what India has got from Russia. But could it reach that potential is something that remains to be seen. But this is a policy line that has already been articulated by India, that Russia would continue to be India’s partner as far as defense goes, but India would be diversifying.
We are talking about the US and Russia here, but there is the third wheel that hasn’t been really directly addressed. And that is China. Do you think that President Obama’s visit to India may have had something to do with the China issue?
Anchal Vohra: Certainly yes. This is the first time that India’s Ministry of External Affairs gave out a joint statement about the vision of India and the US as far as Asia-Pacific is concerned. And China obviously did not like this development. President Obama has said that India and the US have a lot to do as far as Asia-Pacific is concerned. What would that turn out to be in the future, that is something that remains to be seen, but he also expressed his willingness to help the Indian navy.
So, you’ve got to keep Asia-Pacific in mind when you hear of these announcements. It is certainly a message to the Chinese, but India is certainly very mindful of the delicate relationship it has with the Chinese and the economic relationship, and also our own territorial disputes with them. So, the developments on that front, it is a message to the Chinese, yes. But when and how it would lead to India standing more with the US and less with the Chinese, I don’t think we can tell at this time.
India’s multipolar policy of being in BRICS, working with Russia and China, but also having this privileged relations with the US, how does India balance these?
Manish Chand: I believe the new Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is following the policy of multi-alignment, which means aligning with any particular power or country when it suits India’s national interests. So, the new Government believes in promoting the relations with all the major powers. And with Russia we have a time-tested partnership. In the current context there is a slight change in the trajectory, but it remains an enduring partnership for India.
The same goes with China. We have fairly multifaceted relations on different tracks. So, we shouldn’t be reading too much into the statement which has been discussed before about the joint vision statement on the Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The new Government is trying to leverage all these major relationships to promote India’s national development goals and also its position and its profile in the Asian hemisphere.
