Yerevan is marking the centennial of the 1915 Ottoman genocide of Armenians at the same time that Ankara is remembering the Battle of Canakkale, otherwise known in the West as the Battle of Gallipoli. The core of the conflict comes down to the fact that 24 countries recognize the World War I killing of Armenians as genocide, while Turkey is adamantly opposed to this designation and says that although many people were killed, their deaths didn’t constitute a concerted, purposeful campaign against the Armenian people.
Making matters even more controversial is the intervention of Pope Francis into the debate, who recently said that the events were the first genocide of the 20th century. As both sides wrangle over their interpretation of what transpired one hundred years ago, many are wondering what the larger geopolitical and regional implications are of this heated and fiery debate.
Ivan Safranchuk, Professor at the Moscow Institute of International Relations, Editor-In-Chief, Great Game: politics, business, security in Central Asia (studio guest), Kevork Elmassian, independent expert in International Relations, Professor Alexander Markarov, Director of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute, Professor Murat Yesiltas at Sakarya University and Gareth Jenkins, non-resident Turkey expert at the Johns Hopkins University commented on the issue.
Ivan Safranchuk, Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Editor-In-Chief of The Great Game, politics, business and security in Central Asia
Andrew Korybko: Can you please explain to us what are the factors that come into play, and how do you see them interacting with another?
Ivan Safranchuk: It’s clear there is controversy over the historic interpretation of what happened that long time ago. However I think that this historic debate is so intense because it has a current political interpretation and it is part of the current regional politics. It’s not just a historic dispute, it is the modern politics of the region.
Kevork Elmassian, independent expert in International Relations
Andrew Korybko: In terms of Turkish recognition of the events of the genocide, it’s already been a hundred years and Turkey still hasn’t budged in its position. Do you think that ever will change? Is there anything that could maybe pressure them to be more amenable towards the Armenian side?
Kevork Elmassian: First of all I don’t believe that any Turkish government has an interest in recognizing the Armenian genocide but we can work it out at two levels. The first level is at the Turkish popular level, which could change the attitude of the Turks before they try to convince other people. The second level is the international level, through which the Armenians have a very big diaspora. The Armenians abroad have to work hard and to lobby the government that they live in.
Professor Alexander Markarov, director of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute
Andrew Korybko: There’s a battle of soft power in the Armenian and the Turkish commemorations. Does this dispute illustrate a clash between historical values?
Prof. Alexander Markarov: It’s a perception or a misperception of fact and reality, because if we go back to history and discuss the historical facts, it is obvious for Armenians and large number of nations all over the world that the Ottomans committed genocide. On top of that, the facts are well known because the Turkish denial in politics is still continuing and it doesn’t serve as a base for good relations between Armenia and Turkey.
Murat Yesiltas, professor at the Sakarya University
Andrew Korybko: Could you tell our audience the Turkish perspective on what happened to the Armenians during World War One?
Murat Yesiltas: There are many debates going on right now about this time in Ottoman Turkey, but many people in Turkey believe that there was a conflict between the Ottoman Empire and Russia and the Armenian group supported Russia during the war and the Ottoman Empire had to fight the Armenians because of their support to Russia in fighting against the Ottomans. This is why many people think this event cannot be called genocide and that’s also the government’s view.
Gareth Jenkins, non-resident Turkey expert at the John Hopkins University
Andrew Korybko: Do you expect the Turkish government to react to the countries whose representatives are attending the Armenian commemoration?
Gareth Jenkins: We’ve already seen the withdrawn of the ambassador in the Vatican and from Austria as they recognized the genocide, but there seems to be some kind of dual-standard going on because other countries, for example Russia, and President Putin refers to it as genocide, yet we haven’t seen any indications from Turkey thinking of withdrawing their Ambassador in Moscow.
