On Tuesday, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber aircraft operating in northern Syria, with Ankara alleging that the plane had strayed into Turkish airspace.
Following the plane's downing, one pilot was killed by armed militants, with a second rescued and brought safely back to the Hmeymim Airbase. In the course of a search and rescue operation on Tuesday, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter crash-landed after being fired upon by militants, resulting in the death a Russian naval infantry soldier. Russian President Vladimir Putin likened the incident to a "stab in the back."
Commenting on the incident in an article for The National Interest magazine, Andrew Bowen, the Director of Middle East Studies at the Washington-based Center for the National Interest, emphasized that while expecting "a broader air war at this point between Russia and Turkey is unrealistic…if Russia and Turkey don't increase their own direct dialogue over ways to de-conflict the situation and to respect each other's respective national interests, incidents such as this are likely to occur again, and could escalate this conflict even further."
Over the past five years, Damascus has repeatedly accused Ankara of offering direct and indirect support to the Syrian rebels and jihadist groups fighting in northern Syria against both the Syrian government and Kurdish self-defense groups. The latter, who have played a key role in fighting against Islamist militants, including ISIL, have won the support of Russia, the US, and Assad's government, but are opposed by Turkey, which admitted to shelling Kurdish-held positions in Syria last month.
The analyst pointed out that "Erdogan's condemnation of Russia's late summer intervention into Syria, and his own repeated warnings that Ankara would re-examine its relations with Moscow, including its energy relationships, were initially seen as rhetorical bluster."
"However," he continued, "with the [Justice and Development Party's] electoral victory" earlier this month, "Erdogan, who is already engaged in his own air campaign in northern Iraq against the Kurdish PKK, has shown more willingness to assert and enforce what amount to Turkey's red lines on Syria."
And while Bowen believes that the Turkish president was "unlikely" to have "made the direct call earlier to shoot down the plane," Turkey's "willingness to shoot down a Russian plane…suggests that Erdogan's directed rules of engagement have given no leeway to Putin's expanded air campaign in Syria if it violates Turkey's airspace."
It remains to be determined whether the Russian plane did indeed violate Turkish airspace, and for how long, but what is perfectly clear, as many analysts commenting on the attack have pointed out, is that the Turkish military overreacted, given that the Russian plane did not pose any obvious security threat to anyone aside from the Islamist insurgents in Syria.
Russian NATO Envoy Alexandr Grushko said early Wednesday morning that Erdogan had attempted to use the meeting to put pressure on the military bloc to side with Ankara, in order "to justify its illegal action…[which] not only undermines the joint effort against ISIL, but also creates security risks for countries that have commitments to Turkey as its allies."
For his part, following the impromptu summit, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called for all sides to remain calm, urging that "what we are calling for now is calm and de-escalation," and adding that he welcomes "transparency, predictability…various means to reduce risks," and "further contact between Moscow and Ankara."
Ultimately, Bowen suggests that in the aftermath of the shoot down, Erdogan will now hope that "his NATO partners, instead of rallying around Russia and Iran in the wake of the Paris attacks, will move closer to working with Turkey."
However, with President Hollande meeting with US President Barack Obama in Washington on Tuesday, and set to fly to Moscow to meet with President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, the analyst notes that "it seems unlikely that any of Turkey's NATO partners will use this as an opportunity to substantially alter their own policies or their engagement with Russia to find a political solution in Syria."
