WASHINGTON (Sputnik), Leandra Bernstein — A successful cessation of hostilities and political transition in Syria under the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) will reshape the landscape of terrorist groups on the ground, former US departments of State and Defense counterinsurgency advisor David Kilcullen told Sputnik.
“If in fact the cessation of hostilities agreement goes through, and if the United States and Russia can agree on the future of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad and this process of political transition, then the true jihadist groups will morph,” Kilcullen said on Friday.
In a shifting Syrian political dynamic, “you may find a new group emerging” or terrorists changing associations from the Islamic State to a lesser jihadist group under the terms of a cease fire, Kilcullen said.
Kilcullen, who left work for the US government to found an analytical firm, Caerus Associates, explained that after a political transition in Syria, “we will have a different pattern of enemies on the ground.”
The United States claims it has focused the operations of the coalition it leads in Syria against Daesh. Russian military action in Syria have been aimed at countering terrorism, and have taken out elements of Daesh, al-Nusra Front, Jaish al-Islam, Islamic Front and other terror groups.
The ISSG is co-chaired by Russia and the United States, and comprised of more than a dozen regional and world powers seeking to resolve the five-year Syrian civil war.
In late 2015, the ISSG agreed to a timetable for a political transition in Syria. The Thursday ISSG agreement to pause hostilities and ensure delivery of humanitarian aid is a step toward a more stable Syria.
