For the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) these last few months have been highly successful. No one in Austria could have predicted their rise, however the recent polls have indicated that their dominance and influence is far greater their first anticipated.
Political earthquake in Austria presidential elections. Neither ÖVP nor SPÖ candidates make it to 2nd round. pic.twitter.com/786fsZfvnW
— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) April 24, 2016
According to Austrian political scientist, Eric Frey, early indications show that FPÖ party leader Norbert Hofer, could win the next presidential election.
"The outcome that Mr Hofer would be in the run off was widely expected as he had led the opinion polls for many weeks, so that is not so surprising," Frey told Sputnik.
"But the fact he has a third of all votes is a surprise. It is a shock and it shows that the old two-party system which has hung on until now, is now crumbling probably also under the weight of the migrant crisis, which has turned many more voters away from the government and looking for alternatives."
The success of the Freedom Party has also meant that some believe there to be a rise of far-right activity across the EU and this has further added weight to support that claim.
"Austria has been at the forefront of this. The Freedom Party has been very strong — up to 27-28 percent in 1999. So they have been the most successful right-wing Europe party for a while now and now they seem to be again ahead of other European countries — in a negative way," Frey said.
Frey also believes that "one of their [Freedom Party's] men has a chance to make it into the presidential office," and even though the position is mostly "ceremonial," it has massive significance for the future of Austria.
Speaking about how much power Hofer could possibly have, Frey said:
"It is hard to say, the constitution which was adopted in 1929 gives the president a fair amount of influence. But this kind of influence or power has never been used. Hofer has already announced that he wants to be a more active president, that he wants to dismiss the government if they don't do what they want him to do."
According to Frey, Hofer has expressed the desire to "join and be active at the EU summit". For some this is also an indication that Austria is heading towards a pro-European stance. However Mr Frey, believes that this is not the case, and the Freedom Party — if they had power — may leave the EU if public opinion went against it; however they have not said openly that this will be the case.
For the Freedom Party however, the main issues may concern the refugee crisis. Last summer's influx of refugees and migrants, fleeing war-torn countries, caused a lot of debate around the issue of open borders.
"Last summer and also September, when a wave of refugees came from Hungary, there was a lot of public support for taking in Syrians and people running away from the war. But as the fall went on, people said now is enough, and the government did not hit the brakes — they were waiting for Germany and Mrs Merkel to deliver some sort of solution, and when they finally changed their tunes and policies., starting in January and February, people had already felt it was too late."
With these new results, some fear we could see a completely new Austria emerge over the next few years.
"This could be, although we don't know what it will look like," said Frey.
"There will be a national election in 2018. Even if the Freedom Party is the largest party after that, it's not clear whether they will be able to find a coalition partner," he added.
