Ukraine’s ‘Stability, Integrity’ Rely on Kiev Resolving Tensions With Moscow

The Yalta European Strategy Conference was established in 2004 by Ukrainian oligarch Victor Pinchuk, to bring together "international political, economic and media elite to support Ukraine's movement into the European political and security structures," Petro explained.

At the conference Pinchuk called on Europe to help solve political instability in Ukraine, observing that by smoothing tensions in Kiev, the EU will benefit as well. Petro suggests that Pinchuk's comments are a call for the West to increase its intervention with Russia.

Petro made the point that the root causes of Ukraine's instability lie "in Ukrainian policies, based on historical attitudes that have festered within Ukraine for many decades." The conflict, he suggests, is over Ukrainian identity.

Ukrainians must decide whether "a proper Ukrainian gets to be determined by the four western provinces or is it going to be a more open identity which accepts the legitimacy of Ukrainians who speak Russian and accept Russian culture as their native culture," he offered.

Ukraine has the ability to resolve its crisis of identity but lacks the political and cultural will, Petro opined. One reason for the ongoing crisis is that "regionalism is off the table for nationalists, because they have misidentified it as undermining Ukrainian unity. In fact, federalism as a historical form of regionalism provides the unity to countries with multiple identities within their borders."

According to Petro, whether Ukrainian nationalists are in fact pro-Western remains to be seen. Hardcore nationalists are willing to create a "Ukraine for Ukrainians" which would be anti-Russian, even if it requires sacrificing the possibility of EU membership.

According to Becker, the crisis is not only linked to internal political dynamics, but is entwined with international policies, especially US geopolitical strategy in the region. Petro stated that he thinks the American strategy lacks a coherent focus. The US tells Ukraine that, if Kiev wants monetary or military assistance, then it must do as the US dictates. As such, the covert US strategy is different from what is stated publicly, often making it incomprehensible.

The only way for Ukraine to end its internal conflict and succeed as a government, he said, is to establish relations with Russia, a country and a culture considerably more aligned with their interests.

"In the final analysis, Ukraine's stability and its integrity as a nation state will only be guaranteed when it reaches a comprehensive settlement on all the issues that are in contention between it and Russia. The US and EU have nothing to contribute to this discussion."

However, one aspect of US policy toward Ukraine remains clear. The primary focus of American influence in Ukraine relates to the extent that it effects Russia. "American policy in the Ukraine is directed at Russia," Petro said.

What happens on the ground in Ukraine is of secondary importance for the US, a point proven by a lack of tangible support over the last two years. Petro suggests that, in the long run, Ukraine will orient itself toward those nations who can consistently show support.