Keep Calm & Follow Moscow's Lead: UK Setting Up Ties With Libya's Tobruk Gov't

Last week, the Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC), a UK Conservative Party organization charged with helping lawmakers understand Middle Eastern Affairs, issued a 16-page report on the situation in Libya, based on a recent visit to the war-torn country by CMEC director Leo Docherty and Conservative Party lawmaker Kwasi Kwarten.

While the story has seen little coverage in UK and world media, the CMEC's surprising recommendations were certainly newsworthy. The report urged London to immediately "engage" with Haftar, his Libyan National Army, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, and to "reconsider" its position toward the Government of National Accord, which the UK has traditionally supported.

The report stressed that Marshal Haftar and the Tobruk-based government were solidly anti-jihadists, and that they had established order and governance in eastern Libya (particularly when compared with the western part of the country, which, in the report's words, was "dominated by warlords and criminal gangs"). 

The report emphasized that Haftar was also waging a war against ordinary criminal gangs, including smugglers, something the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) has failed to do effectively.

The paper pointed out that during their trip to the Tobruk-controlled territories, Docherty and Kwarten observed functioning traffic rules, well-organized police and military forces, and signs of life in urban centers, including functioning shops, restaurants, a bank system. The report also took note of the fact that 32 of the House of Representative's deputies were women, and that parliamentary discussion was open and lively. 

Meeting with Haftar during their trip, Docherty and Kwarteng characterized him as a 'soldier's soldier', and praised him for his secular worldview. The Marshal, they said, had appealed for British help to end the Libyan crisis.

Russian observers were surprised by the CMEC's frank conclusions, recalling that Haftar, who has made repeated overtures to Russia in recent months, is normally seen in the West as a figure which does not merit official recognition.

Analysts pointed to Moscow's own recent efforts to cultivate ties with the Marshal, and even suggested that Russia's position is to support him over the GNA. The Russian logic stems, analysts say, stems from Haftar's effectiveness, and his strict refusal to use Islamist groups as a support base.

Haftar paid a visit to Moscow late last year, with officials remaining hush-hush about the content of the negotiations. In January, the Marshal demonstratively boarded Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier as it was sailing along Libya's coast, discussing the fight against terrorism with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in a video conference call. 

London, the CMEC report hinted, must do more to establish its own ties with the military leader.

Asked to comment on the report, London-based Libyan political analyst Abdelaziz Egnia told Russia's Izvestia newspaper that the report may be an indication that London has finally come to recognize the GNA is a hopeless structure, whose only remaining advantage is its international recognition.

"The [GNA] cabinet does not have the support of the majority of Libyans," the expert stressed. "Exactly the opposite can be said about the parliament in Tobruk, and the National Army led by Haftar, which controls much of the country. Several Arab governments, including Libya's neighbors, provide it with political and military support."

British officials, Egnia explained, "are seriously agitated by the visible convergence between Haftar and Moscow."

"The recent visit by the Mashal aboard the Admiral Kuznetsov is a case in point," the analyst added. "Now, London is playing catchup, beginning a rapprochement with Haftar and engaging in consultations with him to try to push Russia out."

In this light, Izvestia suggested that it was quite indicative that Peter Millett, the UK's ambassador to Libya, met with Haftar in Benghazi just a few days following Docherty and Kwarteng's visit.

Last month, complaining about Russia's "interference" in Libya via its negotiations with Haftar, UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon warned Moscow to stay out of the region, saying "we don't need the bear sticking his paws in." Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu humorously responded, stressing that "there is an old saying: that every lion is a cat, but not every cat is a lion. Everyone should deal with their affairs. We do not think there is animal in [the UK's] zoo which can order a bear around."

For his part, Middle East Expert Vyacheslav Matuzov suggested that the CMEC report makes it perfectly obvious that the UK is actively trying to push Moscow into the background in order to undermine Russia's position in North Africa.

"The winner in this situation will be the side that clearly articulates its approach to the Libyan situation, and provides its support to the side with the greatest chances to extend its control throughout the country," Matuzov said. "In official statements, Moscow expresses support for both the GNA and Haftar. But if Russia stops there, then it can lose the initiative, since the West is also starting to understand the actual alignment of forces in the country," he emphasized.

Ultimately, Izvestia suggested that "it's obvious that London is gradually withdrawing support for the GNA and leaning toward Marshal Haftar. For Moscow, this is a major challenge, and one which cannot be left unanswered."