Russia intended to expand the talks from their prior six-party format to a twelve-party one, adding the five Central Asian Republics and the US to the preexisting grouping between itself, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Iran. The US’ voluntary exclusion from this round of discussions is regrettable and seems to indicate that the Pentagon isn’t ready to discuss peace in the war-torn country just yet. In fact, earlier reports have emerged that the US might even be considering another “troop surge”, possibly motivated by the relative successes that American servicemen and their proxy forces have achieved on the battlefield in Syria lately.
Trump’s surrounded by generals and is heavily influenced by military forces, which traditionally favor a heavy-handed approach to most problems as opposed to the soft one usually employed by diplomats. The new American administration’s disdain of the State Department, driven partially by ideological but also personal reasons, is another worrying point which diminishes the chances that they’ll give the Russian-brokered talks a try anytime in the coming future. Moreover, Trump pledged to be “tough on terror”, so he and his team might be looking to obtain what they believe could be a few “easy victories” in Afghanistan to bolster the President’s approval ratings and prove that he’s delivering on his campaign promises. All of these factors suggest that the US’ decision to stay out of the Moscow talks is part of a larger strategy which seeks to deny legitimacy to Russia’s constructive peace efforts while simultaneously providing a pretext for another troop buildup.
The US’ approach to Afghanistan is unpopular in the region, and Russia’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Mr. Zamir Kabulov, recently echoed the Taliban’s criticism over the American military presence there by remarking that “Of course it’s justified… Who’s in favor? Name me one neighboring state that supports it.” Additionally, Russia and its Chinese and Pakistani partners advocate including pragmatic members of the Taliban in peace discussions, though they have yet to convince the other participants of this necessity. Nevertheless, the odd man out of this diplomatic equation is the US, which has turned its back on peace in Afghanistan and seems poised to undermine any success that Russia and its partners stand to achieve.
Andrew Korybro is joined by Tayyab Baloch, Islamabad-based journalist, writer at Katehon, and reporter at Abb Takk TV and Almas Haidar, Islamabad-based journalist working with the Daily Dunya as a Senior Political and Parliamentary Correspondent.
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