In a scenario which would have been dismissed as utterly unbelievable just a few years ago, a political novice and former banker is slated to go head-to-head against the leader of what is internationally derided as a “far-right” party, thus representing the victory of nontraditional political voices in what has hitherto been commonly seen as one of Europe’s most conventional countries. Looks and labels can be misleading, however, and the matchup isn’t exactly how it’s made to appear.
Macron, despite being a newcomer to politics, is very closely tied to the ruling French establishment given his professional history as a Rothschild banker and a Socialist Party functionary. Marine, however, isn’t exactly as “far right” as she’s made out to be in the media since her viewpoints did prove to be the second-most popular in France during the first round of voting. They also channel a lot of the continent’s “New Populism” – encouraged as it’s been by Brexit and the Immigrant Crisis – so it’s fairer to categorize her as a more of a populist than a “far-right” leader in spite of the controversial history behind her National Front party.
Framing the election in this way more accurately captures the dynamics at play, and it also draws very close parallels to the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election, both of which saw the victory of “outside” political forces over the establishment. That being said, the actual odds look ever less in Le Pen’s favor than they were for Brexit and Trump, and it’s foreseeable to many that France might not pull off an historic anti-establishment upset like the UK and US just did. Having said that, this doesn’t mean that the populist wave would come crashing to a halt, since Le Pen’s party would in any case still be in a position to influence the national discourse and make its agenda heard.
The National Front would also have succeeded in showing other European countries that a one-time “fringe’ political movement could quickly become a nationwide force under the current international conditions, and the large-scale impact that this could have might end up being Le Pen’s most enduring legacy.
Marco Rumignani, political analyst, member of the Campaign for a Neutral and Independent Switzerland and Gilbert Mercier, author of "The Orwellian Empire", editor in chief of News Junkie Post and geopolitical analyst stopped by to discuss the future of France.
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