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Iran: Deal or No Deal?

Iran: Deal or No Deal?
The 12 May deadline for renewing the Iranian nuclear deal is right around the corner, and the world waits with bated breath to find out whether Trump will keep it, scrap it, or renegotiate it.

The Iranians already promised that they'll pull out of the agreement if anything within it changes and promptly go back to researching nuclear energy technology, something that the US has threatened on numerous occasions could result in future military action. America's top ally, Israel, accused its Iranian rival at the beginning of the week of secretly advancing its supposedly frozen nuclear program in spite of the 2015 accord, though Prime Minister Netanyahu has a reputation for exaggerating anything that has to do with this topic.

Russia, China, and the three European parties to the agreement are strongly against any American withdrawal, though the US' Western allies have indicated that they'd support Trump's moves to renegotiate the deal. Just like last month's strikes on Syria put the US, France, and the UK on the opposite side of Russia, China, and Iran, so too might Trump's decision to tinker with or outright scrap the nuclear agreement do the same in exacerbating the growing New Cold War divide between the world's unipolar and multipolar forces. It's impossible to ever know with any degree of certainty what the US President will do, but most scenario forecasts prognosticate that a return to multilateral sanctions against Iran is a distinct possibility. 

Any significant moves by the US and Iran in relation to this agreement, whether taken unilaterally or in response to the other, could jeopardize the so-called "cold peace" that set in between the two since the deal was signed almost 3 years ago, thus formalizing the return to their simmering proxy war that never fully ended in spite of this agreement. Trump's presidency has thus far seen the American leader frame his country's Mideast policy in terms of "containing" Iran, both in terms of its direct military-political influence via the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and what it wields through its regional allies such as Hezbollah and the Syrian government, so all indications suggest that he might just take it a step further by pulling out of this deal.

Patrick Henningsen, Executive Editor of the news and analysis website,, and Alex Christoforou, President and writer for, commented on the issue.

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