"Israeli strikes, even if increased in frequency or intensity, are unlikely to force Iran to withdraw from Syria, but are also unlikely to provoke a wider conflict," the report stated. "Iran’s political and military decision-makers, including leaders of the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have always stopped short of actions that would lead to hostilities with more capable conventional powers such as Israel or the United States."
READ MORE: Iran Will Remain in Syria as Long as We're Asked to — Top Security Official
The most likely scenario is for Iran to stick to a longtime regional strategy that depends on creating and/or backing allied proxy forces such as Hezbollah, which gives Tehran a measure of deniability and keeps Iranian territory free from major conventional combat, the report said.
Since US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of about 2,000 US forces from Syria in December, Israel has shifted away from a long-standing policy of denying or downplaying military action in Syria.
