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India's Congress Party Still Has Good Scope in Punjab State Polls, Says Expert

Indian National congress party rally - Sputnik International, 1920, 24.09.2021
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Congress-governed Punjab state, headed for assembly polls early next year, has been witnessing political turmoil for six months due to infighting within the party. State chief Capt. Amarinder Singh has stepped down from his post, paving the way for the first Dalit leader, Charanjit Singh Channi, to become the new chief.
Punjab state chief Captain Amarinder Singh recently resigned from his position after the Congress party asked him to step down. The step came against the backdrop of his months-long rift with Navjot Singh Sidhu, the Congress party head in Punjab, just months ahead of the state assembly polls.
Sidhu accuses Singh of not fulfilling his election promises made to the public and delaying bringing the perpetrators of a 2015 sacrilege case to justice, in which the Sikhs' holy book, "Guru Granth Sahib", was desecrated in Faridkot District.
As a result of the tensions, on 20 September, the Congress party appointed Dalit leader Charanjit Singh Channi as the new state chief of Punjab.
Replacing the state chief just before the election evoked mixed responses from experts and opposition parties, and Sputnik has dug into the current political situation in the Indian state of Punjab.
Professor Ashutosh Kumar, a political expert and head of the Department of Political Science at Punjab University, spoke to Sputnik, sharing his analysis of the Congress party's performance in the state and other related developments last week.
Sputnik: How do you look at a popular senior leader like Amarinder Singh being made to make way for others by the Congress party, just ahead of the upcoming state assembly polls?
Prof. Kumar: The whole situation is not merely a power tussle between Captain Amarinder Singh and the Congress party's Punjab state unit chief Navjot Singh Sidhu.
Amarinder Singh failed to deliver electoral promises, including investigating allegations of corruption taking place under the previous government (headed by the rival Shiromani Akali Dal - Bharatiya Janata Party alliance), taking action on the sacrilege issue, ending illegal sand mining, and cracking down on the drug mafia, among other issues.
The Singh government ignored these concerns despite frustrated legislators frequently flagging it to the party leadership.
In the past 18 months, the captain (Amarinder Singh) was surrounded by a coterie and retired bureaucrats. He kept giving extensions to these bureaucrats for being his friends.
With time Singh (as a state chief and top Congress leader in Punjab) turned more confident and arrogant. He thought that central leadership would not dare to challenge him, and he’s invincible. And he miscalculated the situation.
Sputnik: How do you view the party's move to choose Charanjit Singh Channi as the new state chief over Navjot Singh Sidhu, the current head of Congress party in Punjab?
Prof. Kumar: Astute. There are two-three factors that went in favour of Channi. First, Sidhu had no administrative experience, whereas Channi was a Cabinet minister and knew all the bureaucrats and their working styles.
As of now, Sidhu is seen as a marvellous orator and a successful former cricketer, but the election is hardly six months away. No ruling party wants to try an inexperienced face over an experienced one.
Sputnik: But a few discomforting voices within the Jat Sikh Community of Punjab sound as if these people are not happy that a Dalit face has been elected as the state chief. Why?
Prof. Kumar: Dalits constitute at least 32 percent of the population in Punjab, whereas Jat Sikhs are only 22 percent, they are the single largest caste in the state.
Dalits may be one-third of the total population, but they are not a homogenous entity. They vote mostly on the basis of religion, not for caste.
Jats are not happy with Channi being appointed as the Punjab state chief.
Punjab is undergoing lots of changes, and all changes are negative. It’s an agricultural state that is not making money, has no IT industry, or migrating most of the talents. So now, those who want to start their own business or shops, etc., Jats need a political lobby.
The community to which the state chief belongs matters a lot. This reality does not hold the truth about Punjab, this matters in most of the Indian states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and others.
Sputnik: Punjab is just six months away from witnessing the legislative assembly election, which party -- Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP, or AAP -- has a better chance to win at this point in time?
Prof. Kumar: It is too early to discuss the scope of any party. But the Congress party can still do good in elections.
For some reason, Punjab is not a state for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Their best was 19 seats out of the total 117. Now, when farmers are protesting against the BJP-led federal government against three contentious farm laws, there is not much hope for them.
Former ruling party Shiromani Akali Dal never got less than 24 percent, they can deliver good results during polls, but right now they are being criticised by farmers for being the BJP’s ally and supporting Narendra Modi’s farm laws (in the past).
The state's main opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also has a good chance, given how they plan out the election campaign and who will be their election face. Punjab voted for them during the last state and national elections. Let’s see (this time).
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