Taking on Russia & China: Biden Needed Only Two Years to Push World to Verge of War, Scholars Say
19:11 GMT 20.01.2023 (Updated: 12:45 GMT 19.06.2023)
© AFP 2023 / ANATOLII STEPANOV
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Over two years into his presidency Joe Biden has considerably escalated tensions with Russia and China and is likely to continue to follow this trend in 2023, Russian and Chinese experts told Sputnik.
"In 2021 the Biden administration emerged as a serious geopolitical adversary for Russia (…) Starting from February 2022, the Biden administration has been waging a proxy war against Russia, a hybrid war, not even a cold war, but a hot proxy war in Ukraine. It has tapped Ukraine to do the work, providing this country with weapons and intelligence, and actually directing even the military actions of the Kiev regime in order to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, military and economic," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at Russia’s Higher School of Economics, told Sputnik.
Biden Left Russia No Alternative But to Launch Ukraine Op
The beginning of Joe Biden's presidency was marked by a summit meeting between United States President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin on 16 June 2021, in Geneva, Switzerland. Even though the White House viewed Russia as an adversary and refused to take Russian security interests into account, the Biden administration at least demonstrated the desire to stabilize the confrontation with Russia, to prevent large-scale escalation, according to Suslov.
The scholar underscored that simultaneously, the US created threats to Russian security by increasing arms supplies to Ukraine, intensifying Ukraine's actual integration with NATO, and NATO's buildup on Ukrainian territory.
In December 2021, Russia proposed draft security agreements to the US and NATO. The documents looked to defuse tensions sparked by the transatlantic alliance's decades-long eastward expansion and Washington's efforts to arm Ukraine and create new military installations on Russia's doorstep. The drafts envisaged Ukraine's non-admission to the military bloc, non-deployment of offensive weapon systems near Russia's borders, and the return of NATO's European capabilities and infrastructure to 1997 levels.
However, the US, NATO, and the EU rejected the proposal's key provisions, leaving Moscow no other alternative but to take preventive measures and kick off a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, according to the scholar.
In response, the US and its NATO allies unleashed nothing short of a full-fledged proxy war on Russia, seeking to bleed it, undermine its government, and foment regime change, Suslov noted.
"I do not think that at this stage it is possible to strike an agreement with the United States," Suslov said. "The United States perceives the war in Ukraine as the central front in the struggle for American hegemony. (…) They perceive this as a conflict that will determine the future of the international order, the place of the United States and its satellites in this international order. That is, the United States itself perceives this conflict as existential for itself and any kind of compromise, let alone a loss, in this conflict would be fraught with a catastrophic weakening of the US' international positions in the world, would mean the fundamental impossibility of restoring American global leadership."
Why Washington Has Fallen Into Its Own Trap
According to the scholar, Washington has driven itself into a trap in which it is incapable of reaching some sort of a compromise. At the same time, the US and its Western allies cannot win the war of attrition and they are aware of this, Suslov noted, citing Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state from 2005 to 2009 and Robert M. Gates, a secretary of defense from 2006 to 2011. Rice and Gates made it clear in their recent op-ed that "time is not on Ukraine's side."
"If things continue as they are now, then Russia will prevail in this conflict," Suslov said. "In this situation, the United States is forced to escalate. Actually, this is what we are seeing today in terms of, for example, the upcoming decision to transfer heavy tanks to Ukraine in the West and, in principle, a qualitative increase in Western military assistance to Ukraine, and not only in quantity, but in quality, the provision of heavier weapons, the provision of more long-range missiles, permission for Ukraine to strike at Crimea, and so on and so forth. And the purpose of such decisions is to try to quickly defeat Russia."
However, it appears that this scenario would be exceptionally difficult for Biden, given the growing internal problems in the US and increasing opposition from the Republican Party, which took the reins of the lower chamber of the US Congress and is expected to slash the president's Ukraine spending.
If Biden fails to inflict any sort of "defeat" on Russia over the next few months, "by the end of this year the Biden administration will face very serious problems both in terms of military supplies to Ukraine and in terms of economic assistance to Ukraine," according to Suslov. "[It would happen] not because [the US money-]printing press will break, but because the Republicans will strongly advocate limiting US aid to Ukraine," he added.
20 January 2023, 10:22 GMT
Biden is Poking the Dragon
On the other side of the Eurasian front, the Biden administration is trying to raise the stakes in Washington's growing dispute with the People's Republic of China over Taiwan, the South China Sea, US-China trade, and the Belt and Road Initiative.
The Chinese side probably had hopes that with the Democrats coming to power, US relations with China would begin to improve, primarily in the trade sphere, after Donald Trump's presidency. Meanwhile, Biden has made relations with China even more complicated in terms of his threats to China, Alexei Maslov, expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, told Sputnik.
“Under the presidency of Joe Biden, relations between China and the United States have deteriorated, probably to their lowest point, because of Washington's fault. Because of the American administration, the world essentially was brought to the brink of an Asian catastrophe. And not only because of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, but - and this is the most important thing - because of the change in the overall rhetoric towards Taiwan. While not formally denying the 'One-China' policy, the US has dramatically increased its moral, financial and military support for Taipei, effectively turning the Taiwan Strait into a real hot spot. Biden continued to pressure China regarding the COVID. Whereas Trump blamed all the troubles on the 'Wuhan virus,' Biden did a more cunning thing. He began to say that it was China's lockdown and the unsettled Chinese economy that made the world economic situation worse.”
20 January 2023, 05:07 GMT
The US is intent on a tough confrontation with China on all fronts, seeking to preserve its hegemony by suppressing other countries' right to development, according to expert Shen Shishun, a senior researcher at the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.
“Now, the US is constantly demanding that China adhere to a rules-based international order, but the country that violates international rules is the US itself," Shen Shishun told Sputnik. "Since coming to power, all Biden has known to do is defend American hegemony, stopping at nothing to stifle other countries' aspirations for their own development and (suppress) their living space, most evident in his unfriendly policy against China. This US mentality, which is based on the principle of 'seeing nothing good in others,' is not only inconsistent with the interests of Americans themselves, but also hinders the development of China-US relations, to the point that this mentality may offend all the peoples in the world who seek development.”
19 January 2023, 20:18 GMT
China Possibly Averted an 'Open War'
Meanwhile, the Chinese are not giving up: during the G20 meeting in Bali, China President Xi Jinping once again reiterated Beijing's commitment to follow the path of peaceful coexistence and mutual benefit.
"With regard to the development of China-US relations, China always adheres to the principle of peaceful development, focuses on cooperation, (advocates) for the resolution of differences, and promotes the progressive development of healthy and stable bilateral relations," Shen Shishun said.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said earlier this week that it was a good thing that the US and Chinese leaders met in November, as it likely averted the two nations from embarking on an inevitable slide toward open war. Previously, Kissinger has repeatedly criticized Washington’s “great power competition” strategy towards China and Russia, warning that playing a game of chicken with nuclear-armed states is too risky.
However, China's agreements with the US are achievable only if the US approach to the Taiwan issue changes, Maslov emphasized:
“Naturally, the upcoming visit of Blinken to Beijing will be of interest. If the US removes the issue of Taiwan from the agenda, meaning, it would leave it the way it has been for many years, when everything is resolved without external interference, then agreements are quite achievable. The US can ease the pressure on China, but it will not back down from trying to derail China's development. This is their principled approach.”
The US does not intend to change its approach to China in 2023, and expects competition with Beijing, as per White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre's briefing. In these circumstances, China is taking a rational and calm stance in its relations with the US, Maslov said.
It all depends on whether China manages to avoid confrontation with the US at all costs, according to the expert. Finally, and most importantly, China is indeed able and has learned how to swiftly reshape its model of development without affecting any of the most important political fundamentals.
Therefore, despite US opposition, China will in any case determine the economic development of the world in the coming years, Maslov concluded.
