Despite Zelensky Protestations, NATO Statesmen Understand ‘Zero Likelihood’ for Ukraine to Join Bloc
© AFP 2023 / DIMITAR DILKOFF
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Ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, next week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is touring European countries in an effort to push his country’s admission to the alliance. On Friday, that meant pushing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to take up Kiev’s cause at the summit.
Retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik the NATO alliance has repeatedly stated it won’t entertain the idea of Ukrainian membership until after the conflict is settled with Russia, which despite the public rhetoric to the contrary, Zelensky understands must eventually come to an end.
“I think there is a zero likelihood that Ukraine will be admitted next week, but there is a possibility that a smaller, post-conflict Ukraine will be added to NATO in coming years, or at least put on a track to membership,” he said.
While the Brussels-based alliance has said it will not close the door on any country joining it, NATO members have so far been cool to the idea of adding Ukraine anytime soon. Even before the conflict with Russia began in February 2022, NATO had elaborated on a yearslong path of reform and conflict settlement - including that in the Donbass - before Ukraine could even be considered as an ally; several times since, NATO has reiterated its adherence to those standards for Ukraine.
The ranks of the hesitant include Washington, where US President Joe Biden has given ambiguous statements about Ukraine’s future NATO membership, saying recently that his administration would not “make it easy” for Ukraine to join.
“Biden is surrounded by people who really do not know what they are doing, and of course Biden cannot be dealt with directly because he is senile and in poor mental health,” Kwiatkowski said. “Biden's non-military advisors do wish to continue on the so-far-counterproductive path of weakening the military, economy and political stability of Russia - Biden's military advisers would prefer to engage China as the main enemy.”
“Meanwhile, an election approaches, one that will be wrought with variables that Biden's people cannot control. In this confusion and disagreement on strategic goals, I think the conservative approach to delay any movement towards Ukraine as a member of NATO, is prevailing, and will prevail,” she said.
Indeed, Zelensky himself recently stated that “we understand that we cannot be a member of NATO during the war, but we need to be sure that after the war we will be.” However, he has also said negotiation with Russia is impossible.
Kwiatkowski said “Zelensky is often an idiot but he does understand that the conflict must end, in part because the western investors like Blackrock are ready to loan new money to Kiev and the US to rebuild Ukraine, and also because the stocks of available weapons systems are already depleted among his western allies. It is either a sign that he is ready to negotiate or settle, or that he's ready to be paid off to continue to do the will of the US, UK, and the outgoing NATO chief.”
“I understand that NATO membership cannot be offered to a country engaged in an ongoing military conflict. Historically, only stable, at-peace countries can become members; otherwise, pre-existing NATO members are agreeing to go to war under the Article V protocol,” she noted.
“Perhaps peace will be articulated in Vilnius as a requirement for Zelensky in order for him to be considered as a future NATO member.”
“At the same time, all of NATO's sometimes-non-interoperable older equipment and systems are being eliminated on the Ukraine battlefield - and this paves the way for a new US military industrial sector decision favorable to rebuilding all of NATO's military inventories and stock, and that is hoped to include Ukraine as a new buyer of these systems.”
