https://sputnikglobe.com/20230901/constraints-on-us-military-aid-to-kiev-could-be-decisive-factor-in-ukraine-conflict-1113033158.html
Constraints on US Military Aid to Kiev Could Be ‘Decisive’ Factor in Ukraine Conflict
Constraints on US Military Aid to Kiev Could Be ‘Decisive’ Factor in Ukraine Conflict
Sputnik International
Resistance in Congress, depleted stockpiles, among other constraints on US military aid could be decisive factors in the Ukraine conflict, with both sides committed to winning and no diplomatic path in sight, experts said.
2023-09-01T01:34+0000
2023-09-01T01:34+0000
2023-09-01T01:33+0000
analysis
russia
joe biden
ivan eland
gordon sondland
ukraine
army tactical missile system (atacms)
nato
us military aid
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US President Joe Biden is asking Congress for an additional $24 billion in security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to get Ukraine through next year, although Republicans in the House are opposing sending more aid to Kiev. Earlier Tuesday, the US unveiled a $250-million security assistance package for Ukraine that includes High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), AIM-9M and Javelin missiles, TOW anti-tank and Hydra-70 air-to-ground missiles in addition to other weapons and munitions. No Path to PeaceMeanwhile, although Russia has repeatedly said it is willing to engage in negotiations, the White House and Kiev have clearly stated they are opposed to talks until Ukraine makes gains on the battlefield. "I don't see it [conflict ending] happening soon because I think that Ukraine still thinks they can win, and I think Russia wants to wait till after the US election to see if [former US President] Donald Trump comes back in," former US defense analyst Ivan Eland told Sputnik. "There's really not going to be a solution." Eland said the conflict is probably going to "lock up" with neither side able to muster the resources to sustain the fighting. Former US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, whose memoir "The Envoy: Mastering the Art of Diplomacy with Trump and the World" was published, said he does not see any path to peace talks. "I don't think there is any interest [within the Biden administration] in beginning any serious discussions until the Russian military has been severely weakened beyond the point of where they are today," Sondland told Sputnik.Winslow Wheeler, who served as a national security adviser for the US Senate and Government Accountability Office between 1971 and 2002, predicts that internal issues will stifle progress given reaching a deal will require comprise. Potential Game-Changing LimitationsThe US has already provided Ukraine with more than $43 billion in military assistance since Russia's military operation started, but Kiev's requirements continue to grow. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to report that Russian forces have destroyed significant amounts of heavy weaponry and equipment the US has supplied Ukraine. Eland indicated that eroding supplies, in addition to Republican resistance, are also a major constraint that could undermine the Biden administration’s ambitious spending plans to support Kiev. Sondland, in fact, believes that the US failing to meet Kiev’s requirements could determine the outcome of the conflict. "What the Ukrainians need to make this decisive, is they need the US to literally push all of our chips on the table," the former envoy said.For example, Sondland said Ukraine needs to include more long-range weapons, like Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), and more Patriot missile defense systems. Eland, however, pointed out that providing aid to Ukraine through the presidential drawdown authority is depleting US stockpiles. "They’re using ammunition at such a rate against Russia, that the defense industry is having trouble keeping up - they're depleting US stock [and] US stocks have to be replaced," the analyst said. As a result, Eland added, US readiness to defend NATO and East Asian countries is reduced since there may not be enough ammunition. Moreover, he said Ukraine is a European issue, and as such the United States does not have a genuine national security interest in Ukraine."It should be more of a European effort. The United States is trying to pivot to Asia, and the Biden administration has done that, but there's a cost. We don't have unlimited resources, and the Europeans are all very rich," Eland said.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230826/two-republican-lawmakers-draft-letter-opposing-more-us-funding-to-assist-ukraine-1112902562.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230828/pentagon-says-us-has-given-ukraine-more-than-31mln-artillery-rocket-rounds-1112949412.html
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us military aid, ukraine conflict, depleted us stockpiles,
us military aid, ukraine conflict, depleted us stockpiles,
Constraints on US Military Aid to Kiev Could Be ‘Decisive’ Factor in Ukraine Conflict
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - Resistance in Congress, depleted stockpiles, among other constraints on US military assistance, could be decisive factors in the Ukraine conflict, with both sides committed to winning and no diplomatic path in sight, experts told Sputnik.
US President Joe Biden is asking Congress for an additional $24 billion in security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to get Ukraine through next year, although Republicans in the House are opposing sending more aid to Kiev.
Earlier Tuesday, the US unveiled a $250-million security assistance package for Ukraine that includes High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), AIM-9M and Javelin missiles, TOW anti-tank and Hydra-70 air-to-ground missiles in addition to other weapons and munitions.
Meanwhile, although Russia has repeatedly said it is willing to engage in negotiations, the White House and Kiev have clearly stated they are opposed to talks until Ukraine makes gains on the battlefield.
"I don't see it [conflict ending] happening soon because I think that Ukraine still thinks they can win, and I think Russia wants to wait till after the US election to see if [former US President] Donald Trump comes back in," former US defense analyst Ivan Eland told Sputnik. "There's really not going to be a solution."
Eland said the conflict is probably going to "lock up" with neither side able to muster the resources to sustain the fighting.
"Either the peace is usually achieved by one side winning or the other side winning, or the two sides getting so exhausted that they call it a day," Eland said.
Former US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, whose memoir "The Envoy: Mastering the Art of Diplomacy with Trump and the World" was published, said he does not see any path to peace talks.
26 August 2023, 04:04 GMT
"I don't think there is any interest [within the Biden administration] in beginning any serious discussions until the Russian military has been severely weakened beyond the point of where they are today," Sondland told Sputnik.
Winslow Wheeler, who served as a national security adviser for the US Senate and Government Accountability Office between 1971 and 2002, predicts that internal issues will stifle progress given reaching a deal will require comprise.
"That means major concessions by Ukraine, Russia and NATO, which for domestic political reasons no one is currently willing to make," Wheeler said. "Current US hysteria regarding China makes our picking up their proposals complicated, again mostly because of our domestic politics, but no viable avenue to serious negotiations should be spurned."
Potential Game-Changing Limitations
The US has already provided Ukraine with more than $43 billion in military assistance since Russia's military operation started, but Kiev's requirements continue to grow. Meanwhile, Moscow continues to report that Russian forces have destroyed significant amounts of heavy weaponry and equipment the US has supplied Ukraine.
Eland indicated that eroding supplies, in addition to Republican resistance, are also a major constraint that could undermine the Biden administration’s ambitious spending plans to support Kiev.
Sondland, in fact, believes that the US failing to meet Kiev’s requirements could determine the outcome of the conflict. "What the Ukrainians need to make this decisive, is they need the US to literally push all of our chips on the table," the former envoy said.
For example, Sondland said Ukraine needs to include more long-range weapons, like Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), and more Patriot missile defense systems.
28 August 2023, 17:41 GMT
Eland, however, pointed out that providing aid to Ukraine through the presidential drawdown authority is depleting US stockpiles. "They’re using ammunition at such a rate against Russia, that the defense industry is having trouble keeping up - they're depleting US stock [and] US stocks have to be replaced," the analyst said.
As a result, Eland added, US readiness to defend NATO and East Asian countries is reduced since there may not be enough ammunition. Moreover, he said Ukraine is a European issue, and as such the United States does not have a genuine national security interest in Ukraine.
"It should be more of a European effort. The United States is trying to pivot to Asia, and the Biden administration has done that, but there's a cost. We don't have unlimited resources, and the Europeans are all very rich," Eland said.
