https://sputnikglobe.com/20231017/israeli-invasion-of-gaza-far-from-certain-risks-wider-conflict-involving-iran-1114271848.html
Israeli Invasion of Gaza Far From Certain, Risks Wider Conflict Involving Iran
Israeli Invasion of Gaza Far From Certain, Risks Wider Conflict Involving Iran
Sputnik International
Any Israeli invasion of Gaza in response to the Hamas incursion and music festival massacre remains far from certain and risks wider conflict involving Iran, experts told Sputnik.
2023-10-17T23:47+0000
2023-10-17T23:47+0000
2023-10-17T23:44+0000
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US President Joe Biden is flying to the region to talk with Israeli and other regional leaders in an attempt to avert escalation and a wider crisis. During his trip, Biden will meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and get an update about Israel’s strategy against Hamas in Gaza, including the pace of their military operations. On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the US has no plans to put troops on the ground in Israel despite placing 2,000 US military personnel in the Middle East on notice. There remains a general expectation across the Middle East that Israel still plans to launch a full scale invasion of Gaza. However, former United Kingdom Ambassador to Syria, veteran diplomat and Middle East expert Peter Ford advised that this was still far from an inevitable outcome. Tehran's role in either resolving the crisis or escalating it in response to Israeli actions remained crucial, Ford said. "Iran is not bluffing. If Israel invades Gaza it had better be ready for full scale war on at least three fronts and probably four - Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank. Iran will never have a better chance to puncture the myth of Israeli deterrence power," Ford said.Israel is a small country which can only fight short intense wars, Ford added, and keeping 300,000 reservists away from their jobs and the whole economy on a war footing for extended periods is not sustainable. Independent Institute Center for Peace & Liberty Director Ivan Eland said Hamas had prepared well for a long and sustained bitter urban conflict that would inflict heavy casualties on Israeli forces. Iran was more likely to urge Hezbollah to escalate hostilities on Israel's northern border rather than at first directly intervene itself, Eland said. "Iran usually slyly intervenes indirectly through proxies. The intervention could come through a Hezbollah attack," he said. Biden sincerely wanted to end the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza but his unqualified public support for Israel without mentioning the history and context of Israeli theft of Palestinian land mitigated these efforts, Eland added. Middle East analyst and author Arun Kundnani predicted Israel would still invade, but only after Biden completed his visit to the region. He also said the Israeli leadership had not yet decided if the aim of the land invasion would be to permanently re-occupy parts of Gaza or a temporary incursion on the pretext of freeing hostages and destroying Hamas. US policy should be to end military and financial support and force it to accept a genuine peace process with Hamas. "Without US support, Israel would be unable to act," Kundnani said.
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https://sputnikglobe.com/20231017/pentagon-orders-2000-us-troops-ready-for-deployment-to-israel-1114269443.html
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israeli invasion of gaza, israel's ground offensive, israel-palestine conflict,
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Israeli Invasion of Gaza Far From Certain, Risks Wider Conflict Involving Iran
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - Any Israeli invasion of Gaza in response to the Hamas incursion and music festival massacre remains far from certain and risks wider conflict involving Iran, experts told Sputnik.
US President Joe Biden is flying to the region to talk with Israeli and other regional leaders in an attempt to avert escalation and a wider crisis. During his trip, Biden will meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and get an update about Israel’s strategy against Hamas in Gaza, including the pace of their military operations.
On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the US has no plans to put troops on the ground in Israel despite placing 2,000 US military personnel in the Middle East on notice.
There remains a general expectation across the Middle East that Israel still plans to launch a full scale invasion of Gaza. However, former United Kingdom Ambassador to Syria, veteran diplomat and Middle East expert Peter Ford advised that this was still far from an inevitable outcome.
"All the experts say Israel will invade. I say it's far from certain," Ford said.
Tehran's role in either resolving the crisis or escalating it in response to Israeli actions remained crucial, Ford said.
"Iran is not bluffing. If Israel invades Gaza it had better be ready for full scale war on at least three fronts and probably four - Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank. Iran will never have a better chance to puncture the myth of Israeli deterrence power," Ford said.
15 October 2023, 10:53 GMT
"The Israeli army has not had much time to prepare and is ill-equipped to handle street fighting in Gaza. The Israelis appear to have fewer trained battle-hardened troops than Hamas."
Israel is a small country which can only fight short intense wars, Ford added, and keeping 300,000 reservists away from their jobs and the whole economy on a war footing for extended periods is not sustainable.
Independent Institute Center for Peace & Liberty Director Ivan Eland said Hamas had prepared well for a long and sustained bitter urban conflict that would inflict heavy casualties on Israeli forces.
"The ground invasion may run into a quagmire of urban warfare, including in tunnels. I think maybe this is Iran’s/Hamas’s plan. Also, Hezbollah could attack from the north as soon as Israel is committed in Gaza," Eland, who spent 15 years working for Congress on national security issues, said.
Iran was more likely to urge Hezbollah to escalate hostilities on Israel's northern border rather than at first directly intervene itself, Eland said.
"Iran usually slyly intervenes indirectly through proxies. The intervention could come through a Hezbollah attack," he said.
Biden sincerely wanted to end the suffering of the civilian population in Gaza but his unqualified public support for Israel without mentioning the history and context of Israeli theft of Palestinian land mitigated these efforts, Eland added.
17 October 2023, 20:07 GMT
Middle East analyst and author Arun Kundnani predicted Israel would still invade, but only after Biden completed his visit to the region.
He also said the Israeli leadership had not yet decided if the aim of the land invasion would be to permanently re-occupy parts of Gaza or a temporary incursion on the pretext of freeing hostages and destroying Hamas.
"Iran will not intervene directly. Hezbollah will become engaged only if Israel decides to carry out a policy of eliminating Palestinians entirely from Gaza," he said.
US policy should be to end military and financial support and force it to accept a genuine peace process with Hamas. "Without US support, Israel would be unable to act," Kundnani said.
