Ukraine May Have Downed Il-76 Because Air Defenses ‘Didn’t Get the Memo’ on Ukrainian PoWs Onboard
18:12 GMT 24.01.2024 (Updated: 16:58 GMT 25.01.2024)
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Nine Russian crewmembers and servicemen and 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed Wednesday after the Russian Il-76 strategic airlifter was struck by Ukrainian air defense missiles. Sputnik spoke to a pair of US military experts to get their take on what happened and who is to blame for the catastrophe.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense has provided details on the downing of a Russian Il-76 aircraft over Belgorod region, confirming that the plane was struck by Ukrainian air defense missiles and that the missiles were fired and picked up on Russian radars near the village of Liptsy in Kharkov region, about 5 km from the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Government officials in Kiev have yet to comment on Wednesday’s incident, with Ukrainian media publishing, and then deleting, stories confirming that the country’s Air Defense Forces shot down a Russian aircraft over Belgorod region earlier in the day.
The Russian MoD blasted its Kiev over the provocation. “The Ukrainian leadership knew very well that, according to established practice, today Ukrainian military personnel would be transported by military transport aircraft to the Belgorad airfield for exchange,” the MoD said in a statement.
A spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed to US media that a prisoner swap was scheduled for Wednesday, but would “not [be] taking place” in light of the disaster. The spokesman could not confirm the deaths of Ukrainian servicemen.
In a convoluted statement later in the day, Ukraine’s General Staff Headquarters said the country’s military would “continue to take measures to destroy [missile] delivery means and ensure control over airspace to eliminate the terrorist threat, including in the Belgorod-Kharkov direction.” The HQ did not mention the Il-76 crash directly, nor deny Ukrainian involvement in the plane’s destruction.
‘Somebody Didn’t Get the Memo’
“I would imagine that Ukraine probably did not inform all of its ground to air systems along the way. That's the only thing I can conclude is that somebody didn't get the memo, and as a consequence, shot down the aircraft,” Michael Maloof, a former senior security policy analyst at the Office of the US Secretary of Defense, told Sputnik.
“It’s not hard to distinguish a cargo plane from a military fighter and the radars would indicate that. But in this case somebody on the ground just gave an order seeing that it was just flying out of Russia, I presume, and shot it down,” Maloof said.
The veteran intelligence analyst said he was struck by the Ukrainian military’s ability to deploy an anti-aircraft missile battery so close to the heavily militarized border with Russia, saying this raises questions about the security of “all passenger planes” in the vicinity. “This really reflects how dangerous the entire area is,” he said.
Maloof doesn’t expect to hear much from Ukraine’s Western sponsors regarding the catastrophe, “except maybe some condolences that prisoners were lost in an exchange and that something went terribly wrong.”
“It's the people who pulled the trigger that're ultimately responsible. But the West and particularly the United States shouldn't even be involved in supplying Ukraine [with weapons, ed.]. It shouldn't even be engaged in that war. That's their issue. And I would say that the Biden administration has never told even the American people what the national security threat is that prompted him to order that kind of massive assistance to the Ukrainians. And now everything is out of control. And then we have mishaps such as this,” Maloof emphasized.
21 December 2023, 13:55 GMT
Retired US Army Lieutenant-Colonel-turned geopolitical and military affairs consultant Earl Rasmussen told Sputnik he has no doubt that Ukraine will “probably try to initially blame” the incident on Russia, even if the evidence suggests otherwise.
“It creates a new story. It takes attention away from other things that are not going so good…Although I think as we investigate this, we will clearly see that [the plane] was shot down by the Ukrainians. They’ll probably try to say that this was an accident. But from my understanding of their military, the Ukrainian military were informed and were aware that this flight was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war on it.”
More than anything, Rasmussen suggests the incident highlights the extent to which Ukraine doesn’t seem to “care about their own soldiers.”
“Once an investigation is conducted and we can determine what missile systems were actually used and where they came from, and I believe it will come out that the evidence will point in the direction of the Ukrainian military, will anyone be held accountable for this? Absolutely not. I don't think so. They'll use this for the press to draw the headlines in a certain direction. It'll be quieted down. And once it's proven that Ukraine was involved, perhaps, they'll accept and say it was an accident. But nothing will happen. No one will be held accountable for this,” the former soldier said.
