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IMF Says Russian Economy Doing Better on Growth Than Forecast as Seen Repeatedly in 2023

© AFP 2023 / MANDEL NGANThe seal of the International Monetary Fund is seen at the headquarters building in Washington, DC on July 5, 2015
The seal of the International Monetary Fund is seen at the headquarters building in Washington, DC on July 5, 2015 - Sputnik International, 1920, 30.01.2024
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The Russian economy is doing better with respect to growth than the International Monetary Fund had previously forecast, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said ahead of the release of the IMF's updated World Economic Outlook.
“I think the overall picture is certainly one where the Russian economy has been doing better on growth than what we've forecasted. That's something that we've seen repeatedly in 2023,” Gourinchas told reporters.
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The IMF revised its economic growth forecast for Russia in 2024 upward by 1.5 percentage points to 2.6%, according to the latest update to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO).
“Growth in Russia is projected at 2.6 percent in 2024 and 1.1 percent in 2025, with an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points over the October 2023 figure for 2024, reflecting carry over from stronger-than-expected growth in 2023 on account of high military spending and private consumption, supported by wage growth in a tight labor market,” the IMF said in its update.
The financial agency also said that an expected decline in global oil prices may not necessarily impact the Russian economy because the country's energy revenues were already limited by the Group of Seven (G7)-imposed oil price cap.
"Of course, the situation in the case of Russia is a little bit more complicated, as you well know, because there is also an oil price cap that is in place by the G7, and so, even if global oil prices were to decline, then that'd be not necessarily directly impact Russian oil revenues depending on the enforcement and implementation of the oil price gap," IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters.
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However, Gourinchas pointed out that a decline in global oil prices would "mechanically" weigh on Russia’s export revenues given that the country is a big oil exporter.
The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday that the annual average oil prices are projected to fall by about 2.3% in 2024.
In December 2022, the G7, the European Union and Australia introduced a price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. At the end of 2023, the G7 tightened control over compliance with the price ceiling and imposed a number of sanctions against companies and individual tankers transporting Russian oil allegedly in violation of the restrictions.
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