Patriot Games: Why Zelensky’s Lobbying for US Air Defenses Won’t Stop Ukraine From Losing
© AFP 2023 / JANEK SKARZYNSKI
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New US arms aid has had little impact on conditions in the Ukrainian battlespace, with Russian forces cracking open heavily fortified Ukrainian defenses in the Donbass, and pushing into Kharkov region. To stem the offensive, President Zelensky has asked the US for more Patriot batteries. They won’t help, says a leading Swedish air defense expert.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants more Patriot missiles.
“I want to discuss with you today about some – I think – very important issues,” Zelensky told Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the latter’s surprise visit to Kiev on Tuesday, presumably during a break from Blinken’s unironic rendition of Neil Young’s ‘Rockin’ in the Free World’ in a local bar.
“The first: the decision on the [aid] package was crucial. For us very important to get it as quick as possible [sic]. The second point is air defense – the biggest deficit for us. I think that is the biggest problem,” Zelensky said.
In a testy interview with ABC News a day later, Zelensky warned that without Patriot missile batteries, Kiev could lose Kharkov – Ukraine’s second city, to the Russian offensive.
“The situation is very serious. We cannot afford to lose Kharkov…All we need are two Patriot systems,” he stressed, adding that the situation in Kharkov was “the world’s fault” because it failed to provide Kiev with timely support.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the Biden administration was “working” on delivering an additional Patriot air and missile defense system to Kiev, with European countries reportedly agreeing to source additional Patriot systems for Ukraine from their own stocks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin soothed the Kiev regime’s worst fears on Friday, telling reporters in Harbin, China that Russia has “no plans” to storm the city at this stage, and that Russia’s advance into Kharkov region is the Kiev regime’s fault, “because they have shelled and continue to shell residential neighborhoods in border areas, including Belgorod.”
“I said publicly that if this continues, we will be force to create a security zone, a sanitary zone,” Putin said.
Russian forces have made steady, careful advances into northern Kharkov region in recent weeks, taking control of border areas and targeting Ukrainian troops and equipment in air and long-range missile attacks – including artillery and missile-launching installations. Russian operations in Kharkov expanded dramatically in early 2024 after Kiev escalated its missile, drone and artillery attacks on infrastructure targets and cities, including Belgorod, a major city situated near the border with Kharkov region.
The Patriot missile batteries Zelensky is pleading for aren’t the be-all, end-all wonder weapon he characterizes it as, with Russia regularly destroying components of the pricey $1.1 billion systems using Iskander and Zircon missiles. In March, then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that in the first three months of 2024, Ukraine had lost five Patriot launchers.
Patriots No Match in Face of ‘Total Russian Air Superiority’
“Two Patriot systems would of course greatly improve Ukrainian capability on the Kharkov front, but only for a while and regionally,” says Mikael Valtersson, a former Swedish Armed Forces officer and air defense expert.
“To be useful against Russian aircrafts using glide bombs, the Patriot launchers must be placed not too deep inside Ukraine, thereby making them vulnerable to Russian attacks,” Valtersson told Sputnik.
On top of that, “they also have no effect on Russian drones and artillery, which play an important role in the Russian offensive,” he said.
Russia’s total air superiority in the Ukrainian battlespace has been a very important contributing factor to the success of its recent ground operations, the observer said. That explains Kiev’s desperate search for the means to shore up its air defense capabilities, he stressed.
“Two new Patriot systems would strengthen Ukrainian defenses but they would be no game changer on the Kharkov front. The most important thing might be the strengthening of the low and falling Ukrainian morale,” Valtersson said, referencing the months of bad news from the front, lack of weapons and ammunition, and growing resistance among draft-age men about being conscripted and sent to fight Russia in what is shaping up into an increasingly hopeless tactical and strategic situation.
Valtersson isn’t sure Kiev would actually send any new Patriots it gets to the Kharkov front anyway, “since there are many more important holes to fill in the Ukrainian air defense.” The observer doesn’t rule out that Zelensky’s appeal “might be an attempt to get any new Patriot systems at all” into Ukraine, “by claiming that they are needed to save Kharkov.”
Kiev’s problem, Valtersson says, is that Patriots are “expensive, high-end products with a long queue of clients,” meaning if they are sent to Ukraine, someone else won’t be getting theirs, or someone will be left without air defenses.
“The main country with Patriot systems is the US, and they might send some more Patriots to Ukraine, but even there, there’s an unwillingness to part with Patriots before they can get new ones. In the large support package that the US Congress approved recently, the majority of funds were for Ukraine to order new systems from the US and get them delivered in 2025 or 2026, not in the coming months,” the observer stressed.
To stand any chance, Ukraine would need a lot of new Patriots, and quickly, along with “a steady flow of replacements” to compensate any losses. If it’s only a couple more, it will make only a “small difference for Ukraine’s prospects in the continued fighting,” Valtersson summed up.
