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Israel-Hezbollah War Could Deal Final Blow to Biden's Election Odds

© AP Photo / Mohammed ZaatariIn this Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016 photo, Hezbollah fighters stand atop a car mounted with a mock rocket, as they parade during a rally to mark the seventh day of Ashoura, in the southern village of Seksakiyeh, Lebanon.
In this Sunday, Oct. 9, 2016 photo, Hezbollah fighters stand atop a car mounted with a mock rocket, as they parade during a rally to mark the seventh day of Ashoura, in the southern village of Seksakiyeh, Lebanon. - Sputnik International, 1920, 24.06.2024
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An Israeli invasion of Lebanon could deal a blow to US President Joe Biden's chances in the November elections, international observers say, noting rising tensions in the Middle East.
US and European mainstream media are reporting "a growing fear" of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi'ite resistance movement, have dramatically escalated since Tel Aviv's invasion of Rafah, a southern Gaza region bordering Egypt.
Hezbollah has repeatedly warned Israel against expanding military actions against the Palestinian territory.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 23 that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would be moved to the country's northern border to confront Hezbollah. Washington has reportedly been cautioning Tel Aviv against a new conflict.
Fighters of the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah take part in a ceremony to commemorate the party's fallen leaders in the Lebanese village of Jibshit, about 50 kilometres south of the capital Beirut, on February 15, 2024. - Sputnik International, 1920, 13.06.2024
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Israel's 'All-Out War' With Hezbollah: What US Thinks About Scenario
Team Biden has good reasons to get worried about Israel's confrontation with Hezbollah for two major reasons, according to international observers.
The first concern is that Israel may sustain serious damage, given the resistance group's military capabilities.
According to Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the group has 100,000 guerillas ready to fight. Many of them gained combat experience against against ISIS* and other jihadist groups in Syria.
Hezbollah is also believed to have an arsenal of 150,000-200,000 missiles. Most recently the group has begun successfully using kamikaze drones and other unmanned vehicles against Israeli border positions.
Research by the Israeli Reichman University Institute for Counter-Terrorism indicates that Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day and overwhelm Israel's air defenses.
Stockpiles of Iron Dome and David's Sling missiles would be depleted within a few days of the combat, leaving Israel exposed to a massive barrage of rockets and drones from Hezbollah and its regional allies.
The scenario described by the institute demonstrates that Israel is completely unprepared for a possible repeat of the 2006 Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
A smoke plume billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 23, 2024 amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.  - Sputnik International, 1920, 24.06.2024
US Won’t Be Able to Help Israel in 'Broader Hezbollah War', Warns Air Force General
The second worry is that the US would be drawn into an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. That is likely to deal a tremendous blow to President Joe Biden's election odds, according to Dr. Michelle Bentley, director of the Centre for International Security at Royal Holloway University of London.
"The Israel-Palestine conflict is already eroding Democrat support and Biden has repeatedly been accused from all sides of mishandling the situation", Bentley wrote for The Conversation.
Biden now finds himself between a rock and a hard place: while Republicans and pro-Israel Democrats are pressing him to aid Tel Aviv, progressive Democrats condemn Israel for "ethnic cleansing" in the Gaza Strip.
Biden's electoral base, which includes young Democrat voters, black people, Arab and Muslim Americans has grown disenchanted with the US president over his failure to force Israel into a ceasefire in Gaza and continued military aid to the IDF.
According to the British academic, US citizens and world leaders see a potential conflict between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah as part of the ongoing Israel-Palestine crisis.
"The criticisms against Biden don't just come from US voters but from other states," she wrote. "If Biden can't win those states over to whatever he does next in relation to Israel and Hezbollah, he will look incompetent and unreliable. And if he can’t convince other national leaders that he is up to the job, he won't convince US voters either."
By June 24, 61 percent of Americans disapproved of Joe Biden's handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with only 31 percent approving of the president's strategy, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics (RCP). Biden's rival, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, is leading the incumbent president in most national and state polls.
Hezbollah fighters hold flags as they attend the memorial of their slain leader Sheik Abbas al-Mousawi, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike in 1992 - Sputnik International, 1920, 08.06.2024
Analysis
Israel Can’t Win All Out War Against Lebanon’s Hezbollah: Here’s Why
*terrorist group banned in Russia
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