https://sputnikglobe.com/20250728/why-thailand-and-cambodia-are-at-war-in-the-heart-of-asean-1122501957.html
Why Thailand and Cambodia Are at War in the Heart of ASEAN
Why Thailand and Cambodia Are at War in the Heart of ASEAN
Sputnik International
Fog of war rules. A crack Thai analyst worries about the intersection of so many vectors not making sense: “There's something so odd about this war. It feels like someone is pushing both sides to escalate.”
2025-07-28T07:46+0000
2025-07-28T07:46+0000
2025-07-28T12:21+0000
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Escalation, so far, also rules. Even with Tariff Temper Tantrum Trump (T4) now repositioned as Peacemaker and touting his own Art of Ceasefire “deal”.Yet this Monday, it’s actually Malaysia – currently the chair of ASEAN – that de facto mediates, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosting ceasefire talks in Putrajaya. As previously confirmed by Foreign Minister Mohamed Hasan, “this is an ASEAN matter, and as chair, we should lead.”Malaysia, in the end, did lead. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim personally broke a ceasefire between the belligerents.And that brings us to the inevitable question: what toxic confluence of factors has crystallized into a hot war in the heart of Southeast Asia?It starts with a family feud – as stated by a top Thai intel source, involving the Thai Shinawatra and the Cambodian Hun Sen clans. Thaksin Shinawatra, from Chiang Mai in the north, billionaire, former prime minister, recently pardoned by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, is the perennial strongman of Thai politics. One of his daughters, Paetongtarn, is the current Thai Prime Minister.Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge soldier — he defected in 1977 — former Prime Minister in two stints (1985-1983 and 1998-2023), currently President of the Senate, is the perennial strongman in Cambodia.The Shinawatra-Hun Sen clans used to be very close, but they recently had an "irreconcilable" falling out, partly due to Thaksin’s daughter Yingluck's new husband — by the way, she is also a former Prime Minister — planning to open a large casino in the tourist paradise Phuket, something directly connected to the relaxation of Thai gambling laws.The new venture will heavily affect Hun Sen's enormous profits from his casinos located in Poi Pet, along the Thai border.The current Thai-Cambodian border is demarcated mostly along the watershed of the Dangrek mountain range. Hun Sen is eager to gain even tiny pieces of land on the Thai side of the watershed, using ancient Khmer temples as an excuse. The whole area was once part of the mighty Khmer empire.Hun Sen’s gamble is to set up a legal precedent for the border to be adjusted at the coastline. That of course would affect the maritime borders in the Gulf of Thailand, and who controls how much of the oil and gas fields. Currently multiple Western companies — including Chevron — hold drilling rights on the Thai side of the maritime border, hence the Western 'support' for Thailand.Now we enter the most sensitive part of the equation. Thaksin was essentially brought back to the Thai political chessboard by the King's close advisors in order to keep the liberal “menace” at bay. But now the optics are that Thaksin has messed up. And the echoes coming from the monarchy circles is that the King is extremely angry — and has taken the conflict with Cambodia personally.There are several factions in the Thai military — an extremely complex environment. The commanders currently in control of the situation at the border are known as the 'King's men'.So there is a strong possibility the Thai military would push deeper into Cambodia, fulfilling irredentist demands coming from deeply nationalist quarters. In parallel, that might turn out to be a priceless opportunity to correct the colonial borders drawn by the France-Siam treaty of 1907.To make it even more intractable, the moves overlap with powerful comprador elites in Bangkok abhorring — and bribed into blocking — increased Global South cooperation.Yes, this is also part of the war on BRICSNow for the Big Picture. Both Thailand and Cambodia, important nodes of the 10-member ASEAN, are deeply China-connected – from geography to geoeconomics. Ergo, imperial divide and rule applies – in spades, and subordinated to the maximum imperative, as in Mackinder and Mahan revisited: burning down the Rimland all around the Heartland.That’s the current thrust, on steroids, by the Empire of Chaos. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet. And never forget: Thailand is also a BRICS partner. Chaos simultaneously destabilizes both ASEAN and BRICS.Now for blood on the tracks — literally. A key New Silk Road project is the 6,000 km plus high-speed rail line that will eventually connect Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, to Southeast Asia all the way to Singapore.Kunming-Vientiane in Laos is already up and running; a roaring success. The Thai extension all the way to Nong Khai – plagued by immense corruption problems – may finally be up and running by 2030. A Vietnam-Cambodia extension will link Ho Chi Minh city and Phnom Penh to Bangkok.The current war broke out exactly at the Thai-Cambodia border. The Desperation Row playbook is as predictable as ever: blow up ASEAN’s new connectivity corridors from the inside, with a tariff war coupled with a possible regional war.Globalsouth.co has been providing invaluable analysis, even suggesting a roll call of Highways to Hell promoted by the Empire of Chaos. So here’s a not exhaustive list of divide and rule instances encircling China, Iran and Russia, what I call the revamped “RIC” Primakov triangle.It all starts with Gaza – and Palestine, on the forefront of the War on the Axis of Resistance.Then there’s the ongoing disintegration of Syria via rehabilitated Salafi-jihadis; the projected carve up of Lebanon; Sultan Erdogan’s perennial double/triple game; and most of all the Zionist Axis to-be-renewed attack on Iran.Russia will have to deal non-stop with several new fronts beyond the collapsing proxy war in Ukraine: the new Iron Curtain in the Baltics, and the dream of turning it into a 'NATO lake'; terror in the Black Sea — the supreme MI6 obsession; instrumentalization of Moldova and the planning of an attack on Transnistria; MI6’s inroads among budding jihadis across Central Asia; and Azerbaijan’s mafioso game spearheaded by Aliyev.Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, is warning that the proposed US take over of the strategic Zangezur corridor is a geopolitical gamble by “the US, Israel, NATO and pan-Turkist movements” to “weaken the Resistance Axis, sever Iran’s link with the Caucasus, and impose a land blockade on Iran and Russia in the region’s south.”Moving to South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia, we have on-and-off chaos to be imposed on India-Pakistan relations (both SCO members); every possible attempt in the book and off the book to destabilize the South China Sea – all the way to forcing Taiwan into a final provocation against China; renewed shenanigans on China-Japan via the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands; and attempts at fostering a regional war between Thailand and Cambodia coupled with possible color revolutions — Myanmar all over again.All of the above does not even feature the Africa front — from Somalia to Nigeria, a BRICs partner, all the way to the Alliance of Sahel States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). And in South America, the target of choice is of course Brazil, especially after the success of the BRICS summit in Rio; Brasilia, regarded as a BRICS weak link in DC, is now under relentless trade and geo-economic attack by Trump 2.0.The Chinese Foreign Ministry, unfailingly polite, has at least summarized the pulse of the Global South: “The United States has lost its legitimacy to lead the world in the eyes of nations. It is no longer morally qualified to speak of values or peace while supporting genocide in Gaza."That means virtually no takers across all Asian latitudes to become a Ukraine 2.0 subordinated to CIA/MI6/NATO plans to manufacture a war on China. That’s exactly what Malaysia’s rotating presidency of ASEAN will be imparting today on both Bangkok and Phnom Penh. The ASEAN annual summit will take place in Malaysia next October.So what should BRICS do in the short run, as incandescence prevails? Move with discretion and cunning, and take the long view, for instance privileging “ASEAN centrality”. In the end the US may turn out to be the swing state after all, as the core divide and rule power centers of the West remain Tel Aviv and London.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20250726/thailand-vs-cambodia-a-military-face-off-1122495235.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20250127/wests-obsession-with-baltic-sabotage-meant-to-aid-seas-transformation-into-nato-lake-1121506528.html
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Escalation, so far, also rules. Even with Tariff Temper Tantrum Trump (T4) now repositioned as Peacemaker and touting his own Art of Ceasefire “deal”.
Yet this Monday, it’s actually Malaysia – currently the chair of ASEAN – that de facto mediates, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim hosting ceasefire talks in Putrajaya. As previously confirmed by Foreign Minister Mohamed Hasan, “this is an ASEAN matter, and as chair, we should lead.”
Malaysia, in the end, did lead. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim personally broke a ceasefire between the belligerents.
And that brings us to the inevitable question: what toxic confluence of factors has crystallized into a hot war in the heart of Southeast Asia?
It starts with a family feud – as stated by a top Thai intel source, involving the Thai Shinawatra and the Cambodian Hun Sen clans. Thaksin Shinawatra, from Chiang Mai in the north, billionaire, former prime minister, recently pardoned by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, is the perennial strongman of Thai politics. One of his daughters, Paetongtarn, is the current Thai Prime Minister.
Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge soldier — he defected in 1977 — former Prime Minister in two stints (1985-1983 and 1998-2023), currently President of the Senate, is the perennial strongman in Cambodia.
The Shinawatra-Hun Sen clans used to be very close, but they recently had an "irreconcilable" falling out, partly due to Thaksin’s daughter Yingluck's new husband — by the way, she is also a former Prime Minister — planning to open a large casino in the tourist paradise Phuket, something directly connected to the relaxation of Thai gambling laws.
The new venture will heavily affect Hun Sen's enormous profits from his casinos located in Poi Pet, along the Thai border.
It gets way more complex when we factor what lies behind the long unresolved border dispute, now flaring up again because of — what else — Pipelineistan: it’s all about oil and gas exploration.
The current Thai-Cambodian border is demarcated mostly along the watershed of the Dangrek mountain range. Hun Sen is eager to gain even tiny pieces of land on the Thai side of the watershed, using ancient Khmer temples as an excuse. The whole area was once part of the mighty Khmer empire.
Hun Sen’s gamble is to set up a legal precedent for the border to be adjusted at the coastline. That of course would affect the maritime borders in the Gulf of Thailand, and who controls how much of the oil and gas fields. Currently multiple Western companies — including Chevron — hold drilling rights on the Thai side of the maritime border, hence the Western 'support' for Thailand.
Enter China. Beijing has a very significant trading relationship with Thailand: a $135 billion turnover. Compare it to a mere $12 billion when it comes to China-Cambodia. The Chinese and Thai militaries are very close. In terms of strategic interest, as much as China may be investing a lot in Cambodia modernization, including a mega new business hub outside of Phnom Penh, Beijing will not support Hun Sen’s — now backfiring — gamble.
Now we enter the most sensitive part of the equation. Thaksin was essentially brought back to the Thai political chessboard by the King's close advisors in order to keep the liberal “menace” at bay. But now the optics are that Thaksin has messed up. And the echoes coming from the monarchy circles is that the King is extremely angry — and has taken the conflict with Cambodia personally.
There are several factions in the Thai military — an extremely complex environment. The commanders currently in control of the situation at the border are known as the 'King's men'.
So what next? For quite a while, insiders of the highly volatile Thai political environment have been stressing that the Kingdom has once again played a complex balancing act, in many aspects getting both the US and China on its side.
So there is a strong possibility the Thai military would push deeper into Cambodia, fulfilling irredentist demands coming from deeply nationalist quarters. In parallel, that might turn out to be a priceless opportunity to correct the colonial borders drawn by the France-Siam treaty of 1907.
To make it even more intractable, the moves overlap with powerful comprador elites in Bangkok abhorring — and bribed into blocking — increased Global South cooperation.
Yes, this is also part of the war on BRICS
Now for the Big Picture. Both Thailand and Cambodia, important nodes of the 10-member ASEAN, are deeply China-connected – from geography to geoeconomics. Ergo, imperial divide and rule applies – in spades, and subordinated to the maximum imperative, as in Mackinder and Mahan revisited: burning down the Rimland all around the Heartland.
That’s the current thrust, on steroids, by the Empire of Chaos. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet. And never forget: Thailand is also a BRICS partner. Chaos simultaneously destabilizes both ASEAN and BRICS.
Now for blood on the tracks — literally. A key New Silk Road project is the 6,000 km plus high-speed rail line that will eventually connect Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, to Southeast Asia all the way to Singapore.
Kunming-Vientiane in Laos is already up and running; a roaring success. The Thai extension all the way to Nong Khai – plagued by immense corruption problems – may finally be up and running by 2030. A Vietnam-Cambodia extension will link Ho Chi Minh city and Phnom Penh to Bangkok.
The current war broke out exactly at the Thai-Cambodia border. The Desperation Row playbook is as predictable as ever: blow up ASEAN’s new connectivity corridors from the inside, with a tariff war coupled with a possible regional war.
Globalsouth.co has been providing invaluable analysis, even suggesting a roll call of Highways to Hell promoted by the Empire of Chaos. So here’s a not exhaustive list of divide and rule instances encircling China, Iran and Russia, what I call the revamped “RIC” Primakov triangle.
It all starts with Gaza – and Palestine, on the forefront of the War on the Axis of Resistance.
Then there’s the ongoing disintegration of Syria via rehabilitated Salafi-jihadis; the projected carve up of Lebanon; Sultan Erdogan’s perennial double/triple game; and most of all the Zionist Axis to-be-renewed attack on Iran.
Russia will have to deal non-stop with several new fronts beyond the collapsing proxy war in Ukraine: the new Iron Curtain in the Baltics, and the dream of turning it into a 'NATO lake'; terror in the Black Sea — the supreme MI6 obsession; instrumentalization of Moldova and the planning of an attack on Transnistria; MI6’s inroads among budding jihadis across Central Asia; and Azerbaijan’s mafioso game spearheaded by Aliyev.
Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Ayatollah Khamenei, is warning that the proposed US take over of the strategic Zangezur corridor is a geopolitical gamble by “the US, Israel, NATO and pan-Turkist movements” to “weaken the Resistance Axis, sever Iran’s link with the Caucasus, and impose a land blockade on Iran and Russia in the region’s south.”
Moving to South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia, we have on-and-off chaos to be imposed on India-Pakistan relations (both SCO members); every possible attempt in the book and off the book to destabilize the South China Sea – all the way to forcing Taiwan into a final provocation against China; renewed shenanigans on China-Japan via the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands; and attempts at fostering a regional war between Thailand and Cambodia coupled with possible color revolutions — Myanmar all over again.
All of the above does not even feature the Africa front — from Somalia to Nigeria, a BRICs partner, all the way to the Alliance of Sahel States and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). And in South America, the target of choice is of course Brazil, especially after the success of the BRICS summit in Rio; Brasilia, regarded as a BRICS weak link in DC, is now under relentless trade and geo-economic attack by Trump 2.0.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry, unfailingly polite, has at least summarized the pulse of the Global South: “The United States has lost its legitimacy to lead the world in the eyes of nations. It is no longer morally qualified to speak of values or peace while supporting genocide in Gaza."
That means virtually no takers across all Asian latitudes to become a Ukraine 2.0 subordinated to CIA/MI6/NATO plans to manufacture a war on China. That’s exactly what Malaysia’s rotating presidency of ASEAN will be imparting today on both Bangkok and Phnom Penh. The ASEAN annual summit will take place in Malaysia next October.
So what should BRICS do in the short run, as incandescence prevails? Move with discretion and cunning, and take the long view, for instance privileging “ASEAN centrality”. In the end the US may turn out to be the swing state after all, as the core divide and rule power centers of the West remain Tel Aviv and London.
