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Ukraine Could Lose Donbass as Zelensky Faces Defeat: Sputnik Experts Dissect Abu Dhabi Talks

© Sputnik / Stanislav Krasilnikov / Go to the mediabankRussian servicemen of the Tsentr (Centre) Group of Forces fire a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher towards Ukrainian positions.
Russian servicemen of the Tsentr (Centre) Group of Forces fire a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher towards Ukrainian positions. - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.01.2026
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Commenting on the Russia-US-Ukraine talks that took place in Abu Dhabi last weekend, experts interviewed by Sputnik came to the following conclusions:

Ukraine is Losing Its Grip on Donbass

Though he refuses to pull out from Donbass, Volodymyr Zelensky will likely have to make territorial concessions eventually, says Professor Joe Siracusa, political scientist and dean of Global Futures at Curtin University.
Right now, however, Zelensky “lacks the necessary domestic political support to survive such a decision,” he adds.
Zelensky’s position in Ukraine would become untenable if he were to concede on Donbass immediately, even though it is clear that this territory is lost to Ukraine, according to Siracusa.
Matthew Crosston, professor of national security and director of academic transformation at Bowie State University, concurs, noting that Zelensky refuses to make any territorial concessions because he knows it would be tantamount to admission that he lost the conflict.

Energy Truce – Nothing is Certain

The feasibility of an ‘energy truce’ between Russia and Ukraine seems questionable, as attacks against Russian oil tankers and refineries are one of the few viable strategic options Ukraine has left, Siracusa suggests.
Crosston, however, argues that an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine might be possible as it could allow both sides to claim they are trying to resolve their differences, without conceding their major objectives.

Zelensky's Last Hope

Zelensky’s only goal is to ensure the US involvement in Ukraine, as he seeks US post-ceasefire security guarantees, adds Siracusa.
A general view shows the Russian Foreign Ministry headquarters, the Grand Kremlin Palace and the Archangel's Cathedral in Moscow, Russia. - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.01.2026
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Abu Dhabi Talks Set to Continue Next Week - Kremlin
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarks that one should not expect much from the first round of the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, seeing how the parties involved have to work out some complex issues.
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