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Closing the Strait of Hormuz Spells Doom for Energy Markets – Expert

CC BY 4.0 / sayyed shahab-o- din vajedi / Guardians of the Islamic Revolution commandos and missile boats Navy of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution commandos and missile boats in Great Prophet IX Maneuver in the general area of Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf
Navy of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution commandos and missile boats in Great Prophet IX Maneuver in the general area of Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.02.2026
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“Analysts already warn of a 10–25% geopolitical premium even without a full blockade, with prices potentially moving toward $100–120 if disruption deepens,” Dr. Hriday Sarma, a professional specializing in international affairs and energy geoeconomics, tells Sputnik.
For countries that import most of the crude they use, Dr. Sarma explains: “This translates into higher fuel and food inflation, widening current account deficits, and currency depreciation risks.”
A surge in insurance costs, freight rates and hedging expenses is also expected, and “sustained volatility” in the markets is almost guaranteed at this point.
None of the oil trade routes out there can provide a “real substitute” to the Strait of Hormuz, he adds.
“Any reliance on escorted convoys or partial rerouting will slow flows, inflate insurance premiums and embed a structural price premium into oil and LNG markets,” Dr. Sarma notes. “Global stakeholders should prepare for tighter supply, higher costs and prolonged volatility.”
Representatives of member countries take vote during the Security Council meeting at United Nations headquarters, Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.02.2026
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