Prior to the much-anticipated 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, American politicians and mainstream press had drawn a picture of what the endgame in Ukraine should look like, with Kiev forces seizing as much territory as it could to gain the upper hand in negotiations.
Citing White House officials, the US media suggested that by the end of summer, Ukraine would tip the balance in its favor. However, the reality on the ground does not match expectations.
The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a DC-based think tank, has raised the question as to whether Team Biden has a Plan B for a face-saving exit after it persuaded everyone in the West that anything short of Kiev's victory would be a global catastrophe.
In fact, the Biden administration set a trap for itself by employing a "hyperbolic rhetoric" in order to sell the idea of Washington's Ukraine war to the American public and the world's community. President Biden raised the stakes as high as possible while claiming in February 2023 during his speech in Poland that "what literally is at stake is not just Ukraine, it's freedom."
Another talking point of the US foreign policy establishment, lawmakers and academia was that Russia's victory would not only "embolden" Moscow for new "invasions" but also encourage Beijing to "take military action" against Taiwan – something that has been repeatedly denied as nonsense by China which has always seen the island as its inalienable territory.
Republican presidential contender Chris Christie has even gone so far as to claim that China's potential "invasion" of Taiwan would inevitably necessitate putting American boots on the ground.
As a result, the hyped-up narrative deprived Team Biden of room for maneuver: should the US president decide to pull out, he would have to explain to the international community why he is "giving up" on democracy and human values, bowing down to "dictators", and leaving the world in "danger."
"Even if officials don’t truly believe US and European security is on the line, it’s clear something else might be: The prestige and credibility of the United States and NATO," the think tank's report said. "Worse, any Russian successes — whether real or perceived — could be viewed as politically unacceptable or even humiliating for NATO's leadership, along with exposing divisions that have until now been largely suppressed."
According to the think tank, the fear of losing prestige and credibility was one of the factors behind the US protracted involvement in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and other wars.
To complicate matters further, Biden will run for re-election in 2024 with Kiev's expected win in the counteroffensive having been seen as a selling point for the incumbent's campaign. Now that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost over 43,000 troops, and 20% of the NATO weaponry and got bogged down, the Biden administration has found itself between a rock and a hard place, as per the think tank.
On the one hand, Biden's calls for another $20 billion for Ukraine came at a time when a majority of Americans, including 71% of Republicans and 55% of independents, oppose further military assistance to Ukraine, according to recent polls. Under these conditions keeping the conflict going is fraught with the risk of a growing negative sentiment and, subsequently, worse election odds.
On the other hand, Biden's pull-out from Ukraine as the latter is losing would evoke strong memories of the US' humiliating and botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Furthermore, in any event of the Ukraine conflict being ended on terms less favorable to Kiev than earlier promised, a storm of criticism against Team Biden could be expected, as per the think tank.
On top of this, the longer the US administration waits to lay the groundwork to end the conflict diplomatically, "the harder it will be to do, with the steepest costs borne by the Ukrainian people," the think tank warned.