Ukraine's Attrition Rate Suggests Counteroffensive is Over
© AP Photo / Matt Rourke
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The Ukrainian military has sustained enormous losses since the beginning of its botched counteroffensive, raising questions about its ability to continue advancing, security expert Michael Maloof told Sputnik.
As of August 4, Ukraine has lost more than 43,000 soldiers and over 4,900 units of various weaponry, including 26 aircraft, nine helicopters, 1,831 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, including 25 German-made Leopard tanks, seven French-made AMX wheeled tanks and 21 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), since the beginning of Kiev's counteroffensive, per Russia's Ministry of Defense.
In addition, it has lost 747 field artillery guns and mortars, including 76 American M777 artillery systems, as well as 84 self-propelled artillery mounts from Poland, the US, France and Germany.
This data is "pretty serious because it really shows a high attrition rate, that the Ukrainians are just chewing through their equipment and given the tactics that they're employing, you can well understand why a lot of that equipment has become sitting ducks," Michael Maloof, former senior security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told Sputnik.
"Also, the tactics that are being employed by the Ukrainians lend itself to greater destruction and loss of life. So this is not surprising. I was watching some videos the other day in which it looks virtually like World War I trench warfare that they're engaging in. They've resorted back to their old ways of fighting, which is defensive in nature. They're not trained for offensive purposes. And this is the thing that I think is pretty glaring and noticeable."
Ukraine's heavy losses have been blamed on insufficient US tactics and compressed NATO training which turned out to be useless in dealing with Russia's fortifications, artillery, air power and infantry on the battlefield.
The US mainstream press has recently reported that Ukraine is shifting back to its old tactics given that NATO-trained Ukrainian troops armed with Western weapons had failed to make any progress on the ground.
The media noted that Team Biden had hoped that the nine Western-trained brigades (some 36,000 troops), would show "that the American way of warfare was superior to the Russian approach." Their hopes have been dashed.
What's the Main Weak Spot of US Tactics?
The much-touted US tactics are heavily dependent on air superiority, something that Ukrainians don't have, per the expert. In other words, without air superiority, the trick don't work.
"When I was at the Pentagon and especially in Desert Shield, Desert Storm, the very first thing that was employed was establishing air superiority," Maloof said. "And that absolutely made everything else secondary. And in establishing that air superiority, you command the skies, you can knock out command control systems, you can go after missile sites, especially when they have very limited anti-aircraft capabilities. They had triple A and all that, but that easily could be dealt with. But it's two entirely different tactics and approaches and doctrine in how to engage. And this is what we're seeing glaringly today on the battlefield."
For its part, Russia has fortified its positions and laid mines to hinder the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Somehow Russia's minefields caught the Ukrainians and NATO war planners by surprise. Commenting on this in one of his podcasts, former CIA analyst Larry Johnson wondered if NATO generals were asleep for the last six-seven months. Per him, the transatlantic alliance had enough resources to gather such intelligence ahead of the counteroffensive.
Russian tactics have also proved superior, Maloof opined: "Against any kind of counteroffensive, the Russian forces have really entrenched themselves in a way that with mines and tank traps and the employment of drones, it's giving forward eyes to local commanders of positions," he said. "And those drones oftentimes can be undetectable. So it's giving Russian forces the clear advantage in not only holding, but perhaps taking further territories if they so choose. Unless and until the Ukrainians can get more equipment in a systematic way and consistent supply flow, it's just a question of time before they're going to have to alter their course, so they're going to lose even more territory. And also, more importantly, they're going to lose far greater lives."
As per the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian military is continuing to make some attempts to attack in Donetsk, South Donetsk, Kupyansk and Krasny Liman direction. Virtually all attacks have been repelled by the Russians. As a result, Ukraine has lost 130 soldiers in the Zaporozhye direction, 120 soldiers in the South Donetsk direction and 70 soldiers in the Krasny Liman direction in the past 24 hours alone.
4 August 2023, 11:00 GMT
Could Ukraine Recover Losses?
It's unclear how the Ukrainians would replenish their stockpiles and human resources, as per Maloof.
"I don't see how they can do that [make up for human losses]. You have a combination of people leaving the country and not coming back. Many of those who have left do not want to go back because they ask, what are we going back to? And the amount of people who are being killed is so high that even the mercenaries who come in, they immediately want to leave, they see that there's no backups, no organizations, no good medical care. As a result, the ability to acquire mercenaries is down tremendously. There are videos out by mercenaries who are basically telling other potential candidates don't come, it's pretty bad."
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The attrition rate of the equipment is incredible too, he continued, adding that Ukraine does not produce the military equipment in the required amounts and totally relies on Western assistance.
However, this assistance is drying out, as NATO countries are seeing their equipment getting chewed up, per the expert. If Ukraine is not getting outside help, it is going to consider a ceasefire, he suggested.
Anyway, there is no chance of turning the Ukrainian counteroffensive around, according to Maloof. He believes that the Ukrainian advance "is over."
"It's just a question of time before the counteroffensive ultimately dwindles down. You might have sporadic outbreaks here and there, but nothing orchestrated. I just don't see the overwhelming ability to not only launch a counteroffensive, but to have a sustained counteroffensive," the security expert concluded.
