Earlier this month, the US mainstream media reported that Ukraine has been ramping up production of arms and ammo as NATO stockpiles dwindle and the US and EU search for new sources of ammunition to quickly supply it.
Per the New York Times, Ukraine's weapons industry produced twice as many mortars and artillery rounds last month than it did for all of 2022. However, when it comes to numbers, Ukraine's minister for strategic industries, Alexander Kamyshin, refused to comment - citing security issues. He described the amount just as "an important input to the counteroffensive." However, given that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to meet both Kiev and the West's expectations, it appears that the Ukrainian military-industrial boom is overestimated.
"The production sites in Ukraine, which [Russia] periodically detects and destroys, are mainly specialized for the assembly of drones, the manufacture of long-range attack drones," Alexei Leonkov, a military analyst and editor of Arsenal Otechestva (Arsenal of the Fatherland), told Sputnik. "That is, from those components that they receive from abroad, they assemble them. You don't need a lot of space for this. The main thing is to assemble all the main components in disassembled form, take them to the launch site, assemble and launch the drone at the address."
"They have factories that remake old Soviet weapons systems. They recently converted [the Tupolev Tu-141] Strizh (Swift), Soviet reconnaissance drones, into some sort of cruise missiles. Now they are doing the same with missiles of the S-200 complex: they make ground-to-ground missiles from anti-aircraft guided missiles. And we see that they began to appear in the reports. That is, they have long since run out of Soviet-made operational-tactical missiles. Some tactical weapons supplied by the West have run out. Therefore, they are trying to compensate for this deficit on their own," Leonkov continued.
The West provides the Kiev regime with components to assemble or modernize rockets and delivers modules for drones that operate through Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system, according to the military expert. These Ukrainian drones are either being shot down or thwarted by Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems.
What Did Ukraine Inherit From the USSR?
Back in the 1990s, Ukraine had a huge Soviet legacy in terms of military-industrial facilities, as per the military expert.
"For example, tank production was completely localized there, they could produce T-64 tanks," Leonkov said. "There was also aviation production – Antonov factories. They could, for example, replenish their military transport capacities on the basis of these factories. The An-24 type aircraft was among the most massive ones. These aircraft were used, including by special operations forces. They had small-scale production of armored vehicles, the Dozor vehicles. They made the Stugna anti-tank missile system. The An-70 transport aircraft was used for the transfer of military equipment. They had the Bars multi-purpose armored utility vehicle. Then they tried to modernize the armored vehicles, that is, they were engaged in modernization at tank repair enterprises, including light armored vehicles."
A large number of Ukrainian enterprises were part of clusters, such as aircraft manufacturing and aircraft repair clusters. There were facilities for the production of ships and marine equipment, including engines.
"There were also rocket artillery enterprises, for example, the well-known Luch Design Bureau, which was just engaged in the modernization of all missiles. Well, there was also Yuzhmash [Production Association Yuzhny Mashinbuilding Plant in Dnepropetrovsk] which is famous for rocket modernization technology," the military expert stressed.
According to some estimates, all in all, Ukraine inherited 447 enterprises from the Soviet Union. For a limited period of time in the 1990s Ukraine had been listed as a leading arms exporter. On top of that Ukraine was home to around ten arms depots, with weapons stockpiles which would be enough to equip 10 armies, as per Leonkov. Some of those weapons were sold but a lot of those arms were retained on the territory of Ukraine and used during the recent conflict.
Nonetheless, over the past 30 years the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has faced stagnation and fragmentation. Lack of investment hindered the development while endemic corruption led to the degradation of Ukraine's once state-of-art assets and competencies.
Leonkov explained that the remainder of the Ukraine's military-industrial sector became a primary target of the Russian military since the beginning of the special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine.
"According to various estimates, from 60 to 70% of this [Soviet] heritage has been destroyed," the military analyst said. "Basically, large enterprises, large industrial workshops and so on have been destroyed. But there are still many small ones. In addition, if you look at what Ukraine is doing, then the production of such weapons or modernization can be carried out in any production premises. Therefore, the task of our intelligence is to identify such production facilities and destroy them in every possible way."
Does Ukraine Produce NATO-Grade Artillery Shells?
According to Zelensky, NATO-caliber artillery shells are also being produced in the country. The Ukrainian leader noted that "this is still not enough for the front, but many times more than it was."
"I think that Zelensky is telling fibs, to put it mildly, because the production of NATO [155 mm] caliber and even 152 mm and 122 mm calibers are located in NATO countries," Leonkov said. "And it is with this production that they have the biggest problems, because the production capacities of the NATO countries have not reached the level that Ukraine needs. For example, before the start of the [Russian] special operation, NATO countries produced approximately 300,000 different types of projectiles. Ukraine spent from 10,000 to 20,000 shells per day alone. And, of course, Ukraine is not only burning through ammunitions faster than NATO countries could produce them, but has also exhausted all the stocks. In order to make up for the consumption of ammunition at those indicators that Ukraine needs, it is necessary to produce millions of ammo. That is, there should be a million 155 mm projectiles, a million 122 mm projectiles, etc. The West cannot reach such a capacity yet."
It's more likely that Zelensky was speaking about the places in Ukraine where such shells are stored, presumed the military analyst. Why would the US ask its allies to provide Ukraine with NATO-caliber shells if they were produced in Ukraine? Per Leonkov, it is no coincidence that Ukraine has switched to cluster-type munitions, provided by the US. This is yet another confirmation of the fact that neither Ukraine nor the West has enough 155 mm ammo.
Are There NATO Military Factories in Ukraine?
Per Leonkov it's highly unlikely that Western military factories and plants are operating in Ukraine.
"I think that such enterprises do not exist in Ukraine for the simple reason that the specialists who produce such weapons must be from NATO countries," explained Leonkov. "They are not directly related to military infrastructure. These are civilians. If the death of a [Western] military serviceman can be attributed to the assumption that he left the army, became a mercenary or volunteered for Zelensky's international brigades, then it will be much more difficult to write off the death of civilians. How would one explain that a specialist, for example, from Rheinmetall, ended up somewhere in Zaporozhye and died as a result of a strike on production facilities that belong to the military-industrial complex of Ukraine? It would be more difficult to justify such a death. Therefore, the West will not risk its specialists, which the West now needs like air, because they have outlined a grandiose program for the rearmament of the NATO bloc."
Presently, the military production in Ukraine is largely an illusion, according to the expert. Yes, there are specialists in Ukraine who deal with the issues of repair and modernization of what remains in the form of the Soviet military industrial-legacy. But it's a far cry from what Ukraine really needs to tip the balance in its favor, as per Leonkov.
Meanwhile, the Russian intelligence services are looking for Ukrainian military-industrial facilities for subsequent destruction in order to accomplish Moscow's task of demilitarizing the Eastern European state.