No, Biden Can't Wage Forever War in Ukraine
© AP Photo / Matt Rourke
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Biden administration officials appear to be fixing for a new "forever war" in Ukraine, as per the US mainstream press. Does Washington have enough resources for a protracted conflict?
The US mainstream media has hinted at the possibility of a new Ukraine counteroffensive next year. Reportedly, Biden administration officials are privately bracing for a "war of attrition" that will last well into next year.
According to The Wall Street Journal, "military strategists and policymakers across the West are already starting to think about next year’s spring offensive" while preparing for a protracted conflict. Having analyzed the publications, one DC-based think tank, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, has raised the question whether the White House is going to unleash a new "forever war" in Ukraine.
"I do not believe the US and NATO have sufficient weapons and ammunitions to help Ukraine fight Russia until next spring and beyond," David T. Pyne, an EMP Task Force scholar and former US Department of Defense officer, told Sputnik. "Credible US media reports earlier this year stated that the Biden administration had informed the Ukrainian government that it lacked the ability to support Ukraine militarily at a high rate past summer 2023. There is nothing that has been done to increase US munitions or weapons production since those reports came out that would allow the US to arm the Ukrainian military to enable it to fight Russia at the same intensity level beyond that timeframe. The main problem is munitions, specifically heavy artillery shells. This increasing artillery shell shortage will only serve to increase Russian superiority over Ukraine in terms of missiles, rockets, and artillery systems if the war continues beyond September."
21 August 2023, 16:40 GMT
Why NATO Weapons Can't Tip Balance in Ukraine's Favor
The provision of more NATO-grade conventional weapons won't become a "magic bullet" for Ukraine, either, according to the military analyst. Pyne takes the reports about planned deliveries of General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcons to Kiev and training of Ukrainian pilots undertaken by the US and its NATO allies with a pinch of salt.
He believes that the provision of 50-60 early-model F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is unlikely to make much of a difference in the course of the conflict.
"Russia has over fifteen times more fighter aircraft than Ukraine has right now so these additional fighters will not serve to meaningfully diminish Russian air superiority over Ukraine," Pyne said. "Furthermore, it will take five to eight months to train Ukrainian pilots to fly these F-16 after they have completed English language training, meaning they will not likely see combat until early 2024 at the earliest."
The military expert noted that US advocates of further weapons supplies to Kiev have been insisting since April 2022 that "if the West just provides with a limited number of additional major weapon systems, then somehow that will enable Ukraine to force Russian troops back to Russia’s pre-2014 borders." However, all those predictions have proven wrong.
"The reality is that there is no conventional weapon system that NATO could provide to Ukraine that would serve as a 'game changer' to enable it to defeat Russia which has over five times as many tanks, combat aircraft and artillery systems than Ukraine has. Russia also has 300,000 reserve troops bordering on Kharkov oblast which could be used for a major offensive to surround tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops in southeast Ukraine to force Ukraine to admit defeat and accept a ceasefire and armistice agreement on Russian terms," Pyne stressed.
14 August 2023, 13:55 GMT
It's Becoming Hard for Biden to Get New Money for Ukraine
What's more, the Biden administration is going to have a difficult time getting additional aid approved by Congress, according to the former Pentagon officer.
"America First conservative Republicans wield substantial influence in the US House of Representatives, and they are very much averse to providing Ukraine with additional assistance of any kind, let alone another $13 billion in direct military assistance. Furthermore, even pro-war congressional Republicans are reportedly questioning the wisdom of providing additional military assistance to Ukraine since the territorial gains of Ukraine’s much vaunted counteroffensive have been so miniscule, they are barely visible on a map."
An August SSRS survey indicated that 55% of Americans are against Congress authorizing more funds for Ukraine, while 45% believe it should authorize such funding. Meanwhile, 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine, while 48% say it should do more. Back in February 2022, 62% of American respondents believed the US should have been doing more.
The survey results came as the Ukrainian military got bogged down, sustaining massive losses in terms of military equipment and manpower.
"Furthermore, Ukraine has reportedly suffered an additional 40,000 troops killed in action and over 40,000 wounded during the past two and a half months since the counteroffensive began, underscoring the fact that Ukraine’s efforts to regain lost territory since November will not be successful, no matter how long Biden and Zelensky opt to prolong the war unnecessarily at staggering humanitarian cost to Ukraine," noted Pyne, adding that Ukraine is continuing to lose troops "in pursuit of an unachievable objective of breaking through to Melitopol and the Black Sea coast and thus cutting off Russian Crimea and Kherson from the rest of Russia."
Meanwhile, the White House is trying to put on a brave face and shift the whole blame for the botched counteroffensive on Kiev.
Per the military expert, the Biden administration appears to be engaged in "the first deliberate and sustained unauthorized leak campaign" since the conflict began "with multiple big liberal media outlets now saying Ukraine’s counteroffensive is faltering because they are not concentrating all their resources on breaking through on the southern front to the Black Sea."
Still, some US newspapers have raised questions about the quality of US training and war planning, while informing their readers that Ukraine shifted back to its old tactics after NATO-trained Ukrainian troops armed with Western weapons failed to make any progress on the ground.
How Zelensky Throws Sand in Gears of Possible Peace Initiative
As excitement over the Ukrainian counteroffensive morphed into deep disappointment, the US press is now quoting some American officials and insiders privately wondering if they should have listened to outgoing Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, who proposed last November to consider peace talks.
At the same time, they seem irritated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's maximalist claims that Ukraine should grab all territories which belonged to it prior to 2014.
"I think an increasing number of US Department of Defense officials are coming to the realization, as General Milley did back in November, that Ukraine has reached its high-water mark, territorially speaking, back then and the prospects for it to regain any additional territory were dim at best. We have been seeing that prediction prove correct. If Ukrainian leaders had been wiser, they would have accepted Russia’s offer of a permanent ceasefire back in November after their Kherson offensive had ended, saving tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives in the process," Pyne suggested.
26 August 2023, 07:05 GMT
In his latest interview with The Washington Post, Milley signaled that the Ukraine debacle could still be solved through diplomatic means. Pyne also doesn't believe that the window of opportunity for peace talks has closed.
"The Russian government has never retracted its offer for a permanent cease fire, which has been conditioned only upon Ukraine’s agreement to recognize Russia’s continued de facto control of its new territories in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye and Kiev's acceptance of permanent Ukrainian neutrality outside of NATO," the former Department of Defense officer said.
Pyne is inclined to think that Zelensky is currently twisting the White House's arm into prolonging the conflict. The EMP Task Force scholar noted that President Joe Biden reportedly offered Russia to keep all of its newly admitted territories back in January 2023 without closing the door on Ukrainian NATO membership. However, Zelensky is said to have vetoed the peace proposal.
Earlier, it was the Ukrainian president who outlawed Ukrainian officials from negotiating a peace agreement with Russia and who has been "the principal obstacle to negotiating a peaceful end" to the conflict, the former Pentagon officer emphasized.
It appears that the White House has walked into its own trap in Ukraine, seemingly unable to halt the hostilities or prolong the conflict further at one and the same time.
