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Ukraine's Pilots 'Won't Be Competent to Fly F-16s,' Let Alone Boost Kiev's Offensive

CC0 / TSGT KEVIN J. GRUENWALD, USAF / A pair of US Air Force (USAF) F-16 Fighting Falcons,
A pair of US Air Force (USAF) F-16 Fighting Falcons, - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.08.2023
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Kiev is to receive US-made F-16 fighter jets, according to the deal between NATO powers and Ukraine. Washington will begin training Ukrainians to fly and maintain the aircraft, the Pentagon’s press secretary announced, adding that "following English language training for pilots in September, F-16 flying training is expected to begin in October."
After just six months of language, and six months of flight school, Ukraine’s pilots will not be fully competent to fly NATO-gifted American-made F-16 fighter jets, retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik.

"It would be wiser and more cost effective to hire experienced Polish, other NATO member nationals, even Americans or South Americans or Asian pilots instead. Even with experienced mercenary or volunteer pilots, the situation for F-16s in the theater of Ukraine will be extremely dangerous, and it will certainly not be well integrated with air defense and surveillance systems, ground support, logistics, or any perceivable strategy to advance a Ukrainian counteroffensive," Kwiatkowski stated.

In the latest development, the Pentagon’s press secretary, Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, revealed that Ukrainians would be training to fly and maintain F-16 fighter jets in the coming months on US soil starting in October after their English language training in September. The scheme is to be implemented at the Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, facilitated by the Air National Guard's 162nd Wing.
Estimates suggesting that a foreign pilot would be able to operate an F16 fighter jet after an intense training period of six to eight months would only work in the case of an American pilot who has already been through US basic flight school, Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, suggested.

"This does not include English language training, and while Ukrainian pilots are probably as trainable as any other nationality on an F-16, most are used to Soviet-manufactured aircraft and weapons systems, and air operations in the battlespace. So the muscle memory and the assumptions of these pilots may need to be shifted, and that could take longer for them to become proficient."

However, the proposed timeline should be quite successful, the expert added, if “the goal is not to produce proficient and fully competent pilots, who can immediately add value in a combined defensive (and possibly offensive) sea-land-air operation against a competent and seasoned enemy.”
A Royal Norwegian Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft - Sputnik International, 1920, 21.08.2023
Analysis
‘Voila, We Have Air Power’? F-16 Transfers to Ukraine Will Take Years to Produce Results

Language Handicap

Apart from the actual plane-operating skills, the other problem facing the Ukrainian pilots aspiring to fly US-made F-16s is the language barrier. Ukrainian pilots will be receiving language training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas, to ensure that have “sufficient language skills” to understand "complexities and specialized English required to fly the aircraft," Ryder said on Thursday.
If the initial English language skills fall short of being satisfactory, a “separate preparatory language class in advance of any practical training, and continual augmented language study while in flight school is expected,” Karen Kwiatkowski clarified.

"Unlike the case with a lot of NATO allies and traditional buyers of the F-16s, which have long set in place English language training for their airmen, the situation with Ukraine is a whole different ball game. While its anyone’s guess what percentage of potential Ukrainian F-16 pilots has had any preceding language preparation, it's common knowledge that learning a new language as an adult often takes longer, and presents more of a challenge," Kwiatkowski said.

Accordingly, bearing in mind this language "handicap," the US will likely use it to "slow walk the actual F-16 training," she said, adding:

“Much of this training can be done safely using flight simulators, and yet even this seems to be delayed. The US government may not be excited about seeing the F-16s crash and burn, either in training in the US, or over Ukraine.”

Ukraine has been increasingly resorting to terror tactics against its own troops amid the huge losses and plummeting morale that the faltering counteroffensive has resulted in. So there has been speculation that foreign mercenaries, like those currently fighting on the ground, could be recruited to fly the F-16s.
I suspect that finding F-16 pilots who are ready to fly any F-16s provided to Ukraine will be no problem at all. Again - the key way the US can delay delivery of F-16s is using 'training Ukrainian pilots,'" said Kwiatkowski.
Norwegian F-16AM  - Sputnik International, 1920, 22.08.2023
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The US and its NATO allies have already committed billions' worth of military support to Ukraine, and weighing in on how much the aforementioned pilots' training will cost, Karen Kwiatkowski elaborated:

"In 2019, the cost to train a US F-16 pilot was estimated at $5.6 million. Adjusted for inflation, it costs close to $7 million per pilot. This doesn't include six months of language training, or the defense contractor markup. Clearly, simply hiring international pilots who are already proficient on the F-16 would be faster and cheaper. The F-16s exist and are getting older every day. This US training program is more important to the US in a post-war Ukrainian rump state scenario (as a Ukraine NATO junior partner, perhaps) than it is as a way to turn the tide of the war."

F 16 fighter jets takes part in the NATO Air Shielding exercise near the air base in Lask, central Poland on October 12, 2022. - Sputnik International, 1920, 20.08.2023
Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine
RFK Jr. Says Sending F-16 Fighter Jets to Kiev Poses Threat to Ukraine, Humanity
For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been clamoring for F-16 fighter jets from his patrons in the West. The Biden administration held off on complying with the request, arguing that learning both to fly and logistically support the advanced craft was no easy feat. Furthermore, there were ostensibly worries on Capitol Hill that signing off on such deliveries could escalate tensions with Russia.
However, as has been the case throughout NATO’s proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, these considerations were finally quashed. Joe Biden announced at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Japan that the US would enter a joint effort with allies to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s, with the training taking place in Europe.

On August 18, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had sent a letter to his Dutch and Danish counterparts with the formal approval of a third-party transfer of Falcon fighter jets of the older A/B variants - with updated equipment - to Ukraine. The transfer would be in exchange for the countries in question being permitted to buy newer versions of the jet from the United States. Sullivan added that the transfer of jets would follow the completion of Ukrainian pilots' training.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has since stated that her country would send 19 F-16s to Kiev, but only after receiving new F-35 jet fighters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that the Netherlands had pledged to supply another 42. Norway will also provide F-16s, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on August 24.
Amid reports that Norway intends to join Denmark and the Netherlands in providing Ukraine with F-16s, Karen Kwiatkowski found it hard to believe that other countries would be eager to join them in doing this.

"Denmark has a youthful and inexperienced prime minister, The Netherlands is in the middle of forming its new leadership, and Norway's leader has been in place just since late 2021. Words are cheap, unless these prime ministers and national leaders have been promised great deals on replacement aircraft for any gifted or loaned F-16s that they contribute to the Ukrainian war effort. Again, this public posturing may speak more to a post-war scenario in Ukraine, than an actual willingness to provide the weapon. Once in country, the US and NATO will have very little control over their [F-16s] operation and use, and the very real vulnerability of these aircraft begins the very instant they arrive. I don't see this working to the advantage of any donor country, as long as Ukraine is at war," retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski emphasized.

An MiG-35 jet performs a demo flight at the MAKS 2015 International Aviation and Space Salon in Zhukovsky outside Moscow. - Sputnik International, 1920, 12.08.2023
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Moscow has vowed to account for the deployment of F-16s into its military strategy, and warned that such an "escalation scenario" carries "enormous risks" for the West. Washington and its NATO allies are creating risks of direct confrontation with Russia, and this could lead to catastrophic consequences, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. He added that Moscow would consider the delivery of nuclear-capable F-16s to Kiev as a threat from the West.
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