The forthcoming Eagle Partner 2023 drills will involve "stabilization tasks between conflicting parties during the peacekeeping mission," the Armenian Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Last Friday, Yerevan signaled readiness to continue cooperation with NATO within the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP), while the next day Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave an interview to Italian outlet La Repubblica claiming Russia's peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh "failed," and that Russia is "leaving" the South Caucasus.
In response, the Kremlin expressed disagreement with Pashinyan's statement. "Russia is an absolutely integral part of this region, so it cannot go anywhere," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized.
Commenting later on the US-Armenian drills Peskov noted they cause concern, "especially in the current situation", adding that Moscow "will deeply analyze this news and monitor the situation."
What's behind mixed messages coming from Yerevan?
Who is Interested in Fanning Armenia Tensions?
"The crisis caused by the consequences of the last Karabakh war and the existential choice that the Armenians of Karabakh are being forced to make by the inability to represent their interests in the leadership of the Republic of Armenia," Alexander Konkov, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis at Lomonosov Moscow State University, told Sputnik.
Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed two times - in the early 1990s and in 2020 - over the Armenian-populated region Nagorno-Karabakh, which proclaimed its secession from Baku in 1991-1992. The 1.5-month conflict that erupted in 2020 ended with a Russia-mediated ceasefire and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region.
However, external forces are fanning tensions in the region by manipulating the public opinion in Armenia, according to Konkov. He argues that the goals of the US-Armenian joint exercises are to try to "squeeze Russia out of the region, to demonstrate Russia's alleged inability to solve existing problems."
"Rapprochement with NATO and the West as a whole will not bring anything positive for solving Armenia's problems: they simply do not have sufficient competencies and resources. Instead, it will bring excessive instability, which Yerevan definitely doesn’t need right now," Konkov emphasized.
What's Behind the Timing of the Drills?
The timing of the unfolding escalation is crucial, according to observers. After Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the West's pressure on Russia's neighbors, allies and partners has dramatically emerged.
"Armenia is [Moscow's] strategic partner, which security [Russia] has ensured throughout its history, and, of course, we have colossal ties, it is being dragged by the countries of the West to their side. What is this for? To rekindle the conflict in the South Caucasus, near the borders of Russia," Evgeny Mikhailov, political scientist, director of the Center for Strategic Studies of the South Caucasus, told Sputnik.
Mikhailov has drawn attention to the fact that on Monday, Gunter Fehlinger, the chairman of the non-governmental non-profit organization "European Committee for NATO Enlargement" called on Armenia to join the North Atlantic Alliance.
The West's hints at Armenia's potential NATO membership is especially concerning given that the latter is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia – along with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. What's more, last week Yerevan transferred its permanent representative to the CSTO to another position and still there is no decree on the appointment of his successor.
Is Soros Involved in Armenia's Affairs?
It is not Pashinyan who actually plays the main role in muddying the waters between Moscow and Yerevan, Mikhailov believes:
"It has long been known that [Pashinyan] was brought up by the Soros Foundation, an oppositionist, a journalist, and so on. That is, he has the Soros [Foundation-linked people] in his team," the political scientist said, referring to the Open Society Foundations established by American-Hungarian tycoon George Soros. "American foundations have increased funding just recently for all sorts of NGOs and foundations close to Soros. Soros diverts funding from Europe and sends part to Armenia, part to Africa, part to Latin America."
What's more, there are at least a dozen American dual-use laboratories in the territory of Armenia, Mikhailov stressed, adding that Russian inspectors weren't allowed there. "Armenia is already largely under the external control of the NATO bloc and the United States of America," he suggested.
In addition to the US, France is trying to play a larger role in the region, too, the expert continued:
"France everywhere supports Armenia and its actions. (…) France is fully making efforts to enter the region. It was the French peacekeepers that Pashinyan had in mind when he stated that if Russia can’t cope, they could invite 'other peacekeepers,'" Mikhailov said.
Why US Unlikely to Ensure Armenia's Security
The US-Armenian joint drills are largely symbolic and will do little if anything to really ensure peace and stability in Armenia, according to Stanislav Pritchin, senior research fellow at IMEMO RAS and associate professor at Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
"For the most part, this is an attempt to hold at least some semblance of external support – and, preferably, not from Russia - in the current difficult conditions for Armenia," Pritchin told Sputnik. "Because the main narrative that is now being promoted by the Armenian leadership is that Russia is not fulfilling its obligations to ensure the security of Armenia. In many respects, this situation is due to the mistakes and miscalculations of the Armenian leadership itself, which hoped that it would be possible to freeze the settlement and implementation of decisions and obligations within the framework of the tripartite statement of November 9-10, 2020."
Per Pritchin, Pashinyan's statements to the Italian newspaper are "demonstrative in nature" and aimed at showing the West that Yerevan is "an independent player" ready to "disagree" with Russia.
"This is the reason for both the NATO exercises and the recall of [the Armenian] representative from the CSTO. That is, for the most part, an attempt to put pressure on Russia as much as possible, to anger Russia, but it is not clear for what purpose," the Russian scholar said.
However, one needs to keep in mind that Armenia does not have a particular strategic significance for the US in the South Caucasus, according to Pritchin.
He doubts Washington would deploy its peace-keepers to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are still Russia's peacekeepers at the Russian military base in Gyumri and they are not leaving the region.
At the same time, it raises questions whether the US would side with Yerevan on the issues concerning Nagorno-Karabakh, given that Turkiye – a US NATO ally – is supporting Azerbaijan, continued Pritchin. At the same time, Azerbaijan is supported by Israel, yet another of Washington's long-term partner, he added.
What About Armenia's NATO Membership?
When it comes to Armenia's NATO membership prospective, it also looks bleak, because Ankara is unlikely to support this development, according to Pritchin.
"In the case of Armenia, there is an Azerbaijan factor here, and Turkiye will never take steps that can harm Azerbaijan. Accordingly, it is not in the interests of either Turkiye or Azerbaijan to improve the security system of Armenia by joining the NATO system," the expert said.
Meanwhile, Pashinyan plays the major role in the increasing tensions with Moscow, according to the scholar.
"[Pashinyan] cares about maintaining his power," Pritchin noted. "To this end, he needs to convince the Armenian public that the current difficult situation in Armenia is caused not by his miscalculations, not by his personal mistakes, not by his desire to fulfill the obligations with which he came to power in 2018, on the immediate settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but the position of Russia. That it's Russia who does not protect [Armenia] enough (…) and does not fulfill its obligations. Shrugging off responsibility at the expense of an external player is Pashinyan's personal political position and his game."