Many in the West thought military conflict between Russia and Ukraine would spell doom for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. But instead the operation has only strengthened the longtime president’s political resilience.
That’s according to Paolo Raffone, the director of CIPI Foundation in Brussels, who spoke to Sputnik in light of Putin’s recent announcement that he’d seek reelection in 2024.
“One critical mistake in any military confrontation is to underestimate the enemy,” noted Raffone. “Since the outset of the Russian operation, the Western propaganda machine has diffused reports ridiculing Russian strategies, forces, and capabilities.”
“Even at a later stage, the withdrawal of Russian forces from Bakhmut has been completely misinterpreted as a sign of weakness while, instead, it was a wise decision, although painful, dictated by the restructuring of logistics along an over extended frontline.”
The strategic analyst suggested Putin and his military advisers have played the long game. Meanwhile, Western leaders’ public promotion of Kiev’s chances for victory has given rise to an overconfidence in the regime’s capabilities, imperiling the entire project.
“The over communication of the capabilities of the Ukrainian army to launch last summer’s counteroffensive has resulted in overestimating the real possibilities while underestimating the carefully prepared Russian defensive lines,” said Raffone. “In addition, the stream of declarations by the NATO secretary general shows the manipulative intent instead of representing the effectiveness of the situation.”
“Over the last three days, the NATO ‘paper tiger’ has contradicted itself several times on the real possibilities for Ukraine to win. No doubt that in all military operations propaganda is as important as the field activities. However, the reality in the field remains while propaganda vanishes, producing a sense of despair and disaffection in the masses involved.”
Raffone claimed that, behind the scenes, a “secret realist diplomacy” has prevailed regarding the situation even as a chauvinistic Western press is unable to convey the reality of events on the ground. The disconnect with reality extends to Western political leaders who’ve been unable to reflect Russia’s advantageous position in their “storytelling and policies.”
He believes the United States is seeking a “credible face-saving exit strategy” from the Ukrainian confrontation amidst the political realities of upcoming elections in Russia, the United States, and the European Union.
Until those elections are held, Raffone said “no political leader can deviate from the chosen anti-Putin stance,” meaning Western audiences may expect public vilification and hysterical mainstream media speculation to continue.
“Serious strategic analysis indicates that any global governance settlement cannot be enforced without the equal involvement of Russia, China and the US,” Raffone said.
"Attempts to work on a G-2 model are not sustainable – we are not in the Cold War era anymore – but they will perpetuate global instability and the potential for further military clashes."