Recently, the Yemeni Shiiite militant group Ansarallah, which controls most of Yemen, have declared that Israel-linked ships will not be allowed to pass the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow strait that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Yemen and the Indian Ocean beyond. Other ships, they said, will still have free passage.
However, in response to the Yemeni declaration and to news that some ships with tenuous links to Israel had also been attacked, several major shipping companies, including Maersk, Hapag Lloyd, MSC, and oil giant BP have decided to stop using the waterway entirely.
The anti-Israel blockade is part of Ansarallah’s response to the Israeli bombing campaign and invasion of the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 20,000 people since early October and displaced almost the entire population of 2.3 million Palestinians. The group has also fired ballistic missiles at the southern Israeli city of Eilat.
In response to Ansarallah’s declaration, the Pentagon announced on Monday the creation of a multinational task force dubbed Operation Prosperity Guardian to secure Red Sea trade for Israeli ships and restore the confidence of other cargo vessels to use the waterway. The task force includes the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles, and Spain, as well as the US.
Paul Goncharoff, a businessman and chief manager of consulting firm Goncharoff, LLC, told Sputnik on Tuesday that “Father Christmas may not arrive” on time in the European Union this year, as the West has already antagonized all of the nations through which an alternative trade corridor might run.
He said the situation in the Red Sea “is extremely serious and has already delayed shipments from Asia to Europe for the Christmas Festive season,” he observed. “It impacts many delivery companies - a lot of Europeans will find their Christmas and New Year presents delayed this year, likewise for regular deliveries. Perishable items will be especially affected. There are likely to be significant insurance claims.”
Goncharoff said that redirecting freight traffic from the Red Sea to other routes would take time and not solve the present problem of delays.
“Europe has blocked routes via Russia, and the alternative INSTC [International North-South Transport Corridor] is not fully ready. Shipments around the Cape [of Good Hope] take rather longer and will not arrive until well after Christmas. As this is a seasonal market, many of these deliveries will lose their deadlines. Christmas Day is next Monday, deliveries cannot be made in time for that timescale.”
“The US and EU at present have no other alternatives as they have sanctioned Russia and Iran. They could have diverted ships via the Gulf and north via Iran, and then via Azerbaijan and Turkey to Europe's Black Sea Ports - however that route is now cut off. Or, they could have sent via Iran to Russia at Astrakhan and then over to the Baltic States, Poland and Belarus, but these borders are now closed to Russian and Belarussian traffic,” he explained.
Goncharoff said that compared to the March 2021 grounding of the container ship Ever Given in the Suez Canal for six days, the present situation “will have a longer and possibly long-term impact.”
“The Ever Given situation was just one ship, this situation is an ongoing conflict. Unless it is resolved this could take weeks or even months to resolve,” he said.
“Russia could play a role; however, its access to ports to Europe are sanctioned,” he noted. “In cutting the country off, the EU has limited their supply chains. When those come under unforeseen stress, the perils of the EU having limited access becomes apparent. It is a classic example of how the EU has not fully comprehended the impact of sanctions that they have imposed. Now it means that Father Christmas may either not arrive, or be delayed this year, at least in the UK and Europe.”