New Hampshire: The Last Stand of Trump's GOP Opposition?

On Tuesday, the first primary in the Nation will go a long way to deciding if any candidate has a chance of making the Republican primary a real contest with frontrunner former US President Donald Trump.

While Iowa allocated its delegates last week, that state uses a caucus system, which is a set meeting and open, ranked voting system. New Hampshire is the first state with a real primary, including a secret ballot.

Aside from Trump, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remain on the ballot. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after coming in fourth in Iowa, choosing to endorse Trump.

The two debates that were scheduled before the contest have been canceled. Trump has declined to participate in any of the Republican debates and Nikki Haley, who came in third in Iowa, said she would only debate Trump or current US President Joe Biden. That left DeSantis as the only qualified candidate willing to participate.

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the first three states to vote, are largely considered to be the most important dates in the primary season before Super Tuesday. The three early states typically separate the contenders from the pretenders. With Trump’s massive national lead, Haley or DeSantis will need a victory to show voters that they are worth coming out to the polls for when their state holds its primary.

A previous Suffolk University poll from January 16-17 showed Trump with 50%.

Haley supporters had reason to hope earlier this week when an American Research Group poll showed the former UN Ambassador in a dead heat with Trump, but that poll now appears to be an aberration. Polls taken before the American Research Group poll also showed Trump with a significant lead, as did a recently taken Saint Anselm College poll.

After Trump’s historically large win in Iowa and a disappointing performance by Haley, she will need to massively outperform the current polls to continue anything resembling a competitive campaign going into South Carolina and then onto Super Tuesday.

Some Democratic figures, most prominently Bill Kristol, have been encouraging Independents and Democrats to switch their party affiliation and vote for Haley in an attempt to prevent Trump from winning the nomination.

Trump referenced this tactic during a recent campaign stop in Portsmouth on Wednesday. “Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary,” Trump said.

While it is too late for Democrats in New Hampshire to switch their affiliation and vote in the Republican primary, around 3,500 already have and independent and undeclared voters can choose to vote in either (but not both) major party primaries.

Despite the movement, Haley will need an unprecedented percentage of independent voters to upset Trump. In the 2016 primary, Trump won the highest share of independent voters in New Hampshire.

DeSantis has seemingly chalked New Hampshire up as a lost cause and is spending the weekend campaigning in South Carolina where he hopes the state’s heavy evangelical presence will help him revive his flagging campaign.

While New Hampshire has been described as the last stand for DeSantis and Haley, that is not entirely true. Even if they get trounced in New Hampshire, a turnaround in South Carolina could change the makeup of the race. However, a poor performance in New Hampshire makes that much less likely.

But DeSantis is pinning his hopes on that exact scenario and it is Haley’s home state so typically, she should perform relatively well there. But the polls have yet to bear that out. Every recent poll has Trump with a massive lead, averaging out to a 36-point according to a poll aggregator.

To make matters worse for Trump’s opponents, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Trump in the state, solidifying his hold there.

This may be why New Hampshire is being portrayed as the last possible state where Trump’s nomination could be derailed. Despite DeSantis’ focus and Haley’s roots there, Trump has seemingly sewed up the state, unless New Hampshire upends the race’s narrative.