Russian investigators have released an array of new documentary and visual evidence of their findings in the ongoing probe into the January 24 shootdown of a Russian Il-76 full of Ukrainian PoWs, including footage of the missile pieces that were retrieved.
The Investigative Committee found 116 separate fragments from two missiles, along with traces of RDX and HMX explosive residues. English-language markings etched into the pieces included coded part numbers, the word “Raytheon” and “Patriot Security Classification Guide” and “Contract” information.
On Wednesday, President Putin said he still does not fully understand what could have motivated Kiev to shoot down a plane full of its own PoWs, postulating that the provocation could have been designed “to divert the attention of their own population and sponsors from the failures of the so-called counteroffensive” and to provoke Russia into “retaliatory mirror attacks.” In any case, Putin stressed that Russia would welcome an “international investigation” into the incident, including the arrival of foreign experts ready to “conduct an analysis” and “evaluate the available material evidence.” He lamented that such offers have not been forthcoming to date.
Who Sent the Patriot?
One important question in the ongoing investigation which remains unanswered relates to the origins of the Patriot missiles used to attack the Il-76. Along with the United States, which sent a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine in the spring of 2023, the $1.1-$2.5 billion apiece Raytheon-made air and missile defense systems are known to have been delivered by Germany (in April, August and December 2023) and the Netherlands (which sent two launchers, missiles, and components last April and committed to send more in October).
As the world awaits new information on who delivered the missiles, AfD Member of the European Parliament Gunnar Beck said one thing is certain – if the missiles turns out to have been supplied by Germany, Berlin will likely just ignore the findings.
“If your own [Russian] investigation were to conclude that this is, in all probability, a missile delivered by Germany, I would assume that the German government would just deny it or make no comment,” Dr. Beck told Sputnik.
The missiles are ultimately all made in the US, “but if the Germans delivered them to Ukraine, I don’t think they will investigate. Look at what happened with Nord Stream 2. Everyone knows who is responsible for it, directly or indirectly. And the German government, just like the EU Commission, has been declining any serious investigation for one and a half years now,” the lawmaker stressed.
Of course, a German trace in the Il-76 shootdown would only serve to further worsen already dangerously poor Russian-German relations, according to Beck.
German authorities “should be concerned because obviously the use of German-produced weapons and weapons delivered by Germany could be regarded as an aggressive move by Russia. I think they should be concerned both in terms of the further deterioration of relations between Russia and Germany, but also because it's a sign of Germany's increasing belligerence. It's a belligerence that's not underwritten by any military strength, I should say. Anything the German government is delivering to Ukraine, is diminishing Germany's own military capacity. The German army, you may know, is in no fit state, even to defend our own country,” the lawmaker lamented.
Who’s in Control of the Patriots?
Whether the missiles are German, Dutch or American, another important facet of their deployment to Ukraine relates to who controls them, and whether NATO has any ability to monitor or even prevent their use.
“Of course, it’s possible that the Americans…just gave [Patriot missiles] to Kiev, and that the Ukrainians are using them at their discretion,” Russian journalist and military analyst Alexei Borzenko told Sputnik. “But on the other hand, of course they control the use of these missiles. And in the case of the lost Il-76, there are two possibilities: Either the plane was shot down at the Americans’ request, or they really were not in the loop. It’s difficult to draw any conclusions, to draw any serious conclusions in this situation at the moment,” the observer emphasized.
For his part, Soviet and Russian Army reserve colonel Andrei Koshkin doesn’t believe the US was directly involved in the Il-76 provocation, pointing out that Ukraine has become a black hole of corruption when it comes to weapons and military equipment sent to the country by its NATO ‘partners.’
“But at the same time, we must understand that these missiles are controlled by a global system, and of course, they know what they are and where they are going,” Koshkin assured Sputnik.
More important, in Koshkin’s view, is the fact that Russian investigators have now conclusively determined that the missiles used to attack the Il-76 were Patriots, which means “there is no doubt that weapons and military equipment sent by the United States are used against Russia, including against civilian transport. In this case, it was a transport plane which did not pose any threat to the Ukrainian military.”
Ultimately, Borzenko expressed hope that the same Russian investigators who have been meticulously documenting Ukrainian artillery attacks on Donbass cities for future prosecution will also be able to do the same in the case of the downed Il-76, so that those responsible – from whoever gave the order to attack the plane to those who carried it out, will receive their just deserts.