Donald Tusk has made it clear he will fight tooth and nail for Polish agricultural producers amid months-long farmer protests across the EU. Tusk claims he will seek to scale down the EU's Green Deal requirements, as well as return to "pre-war" principles in trade with Ukraine.
"The fact that Poland has changed its attitude to [Ukraine's] agricultural benefits at a state level is an indicator of the effectiveness of farmer protests," Peter Kolchin, a political analyst, told Sputnik.
"The scale of these demonstrations and the fact that the Polish government was virtually unable to do anything about it (for fear of provoking an even bigger explosion) show that the farmer protests have proven to be efficient. Perhaps, many other countries will reconsider their attitude to agricultural benefits for Ukraine."
How EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes Backfired on Farmers
After the beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, the EU lifted all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian foods, justifying the move by the necessity to facilitate its transit around the world, including to Africa. It later turned out that most Ukrainian agricultural products remained stuck in Europe, sending the bloc's food prices down.
To shield their farmers, the countries of Eastern and Central Europe, including Poland, reached a compromise with the EU to temporarily ban Ukrainian agricultural products. The ban was later extended.
Kolchin explained that agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the Polish economy. In 2014, the EU slapped sanctions on Russia over its re-unification with Crimea which prompted retaliation measures from Moscow. One of these measures was the closure of Russia's markets for Polish agricultural products. According to Kolchin, Polish farmers had to adjust to these changes and replace lost sales opportunities.
As cheap Ukrainian food flooded Poland and other EU member states, Polish farmers saw their incomes plummeting. Many farms have found themselves on the verge of collapse, the expert noted.
Under these circumstances, the Polish government sees that it must step in and support the nation's farming in order to avert a much bigger crisis and instability, as per Kolchin.
Tusk pledged earlier this week to raise both the Ukraine and green policy issues at the Congress of the European People's Party that took place on March 7 in Bucharest.
"I will reiterate during my talks in Bucharest with the heads of European institutions, prime ministers and presidents that changes are needed to protect European and Polish markets and producers. By changes, I mean the need to more or less return to the principles that were in place in trade with Ukraine and other countries before the war," Tusk said.
"We are trying to get solutions that will allow Polish farmers to breathe a sigh of relief when it comes to the strictest rules and new regulations under the Green Deal," the Polish prime minister added.
Will Brussels Lend Sympathetic Ear to Tusk?
The chances of Brussels approving of Warsaw's protectionist measures are very low, according to Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, professor of economics at the Rovira i Virgili University (URV) in Spain and chair of the research center on Economics and Sustainability (ECO-SOS).
When it comes to the European Green Deal, it's a cornerstone of Brussels' strategy, Arauzo-Carod remarked.
"These green policies can be modulated, and can be adapted. Some measures could be postponed. But I don't think there is a 'way out' [from] the green policy. This is not going to change in terms of the main points," he said.
For his part, Kolchin argued that Brussels can lend a sympathetic ear to Tusk's ideas given that farmer protests have engulfed the whole EU.
"The number of social problems in Europe is not decreasing, and the expansion of farmer protests is one of these acute problems that they are trying to solve. Given that, Brussels may take certain protectionist measures," the Russian analyst believes.
Ukraine's Trade Benefits
If Ukraine's trade benefits are canceled by Poland after the EU's nod, "this is going to have an obvious negative impact on Ukraine's economy," Arauzo-Carod said.
"This is a significant economic blow for Kiev, and a blow for Ukrainian agriculture, which is already in crisis," echoed Kolchin.
The experts agree that this potential move would set a precedent for the rest of the European Union.
"Obviously this kind of decision could be seen as a precedent," the professor of economy pointed out.
Other EU countries will also be able to promote these measures, if Poland makes the first move, according to Kolchin. Therefore, one may expect similar measures to be adopted in France or Spain, the analyst said not ruling out that in the future this policy could be adopted at the level of Brussels.