Israel’s just-announced military operation in Lebanon is yet another effort by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "to expand the war" in Gaza, Mehran Kamrava, Professor of Government at Georgetown University Qatar, told Sputnik.
Netanyahu is "expanding the war for a number of reasons" related to the fact that he has been "empowered and emboldened by a series of intelligence successes," Kamrava, who directs the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, said.
"First, the killing of Haniya. Then, the explosion of pagers in Hezbollah hands, followed by walkie-talkies. And, of course, the crowning achievement so far, which is the killing of Hassan Nasrallah," the pundit recalled.
Kamrava also said that a "simple cost benefit analysis has demonstrated" to Netanyahu that "the benefits of expanding the war beyond Palestine and Gaza specifically, to include Lebanon and perhaps later Syria, is to his advantage. And of course, that's what he's trying to do."
He referred to several possible scenarios which may unfold as the result of the Israeli operation, including "an expansion of the conflict to the extent that it will involve Iran."
If the Islamic Republic "does attack Israel, then of course, the US will get involved. The other scenario, which I don't think is likely, is for Netanyahu to pull back. So he can say, okay, we have achieved our ends, we've achieved our goals, we have seriously degraded Hezbollah. We have taken care of the northern border problem. We have almost destroyed Hamas. Not completely. And now it's time to agree to a ceasefire," Kamrava pointed out.
In any case, one should wait and see what Israel will do next, the analyst said, adding that so far, the Jewish state "has had complete impunity," and that one of the reasons for it is Iran "has withheld its fire" and "has not fallen into the trap of expanding the [Gaza] war," the analyst noted.
He didn’t rule out that, aside from the US, a number of other countries could be involved in the conflict, including France, Egypt and Qatar.
"It's too early, we need to see to what extent Israel succeeds in its goal of pushing back Hezbollah. It [the Jewish state] cannot eradicate Hezbollah. What it can do is to destroy civilian infrastructure, which is part of its military doctrine," Kamrava concluded.
Israel on Monday night launched ground raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, which killed more than 90 people and injured 172 others, the Lebanese Health Ministry said. The tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been in place since early October 2023, when the Palestinian militant group Hamas staged a surprise attack on the Jewish state.