"The gas dynamics in 2025 will be influenced by a tighter gas market as a result of rising global demand, particularly from China and the Asia-Pacific region, Trump’s tariffs and EU boycotting Russian gas and also a cold winter," Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, an international oil economist and a global energy expert, tells Sputnik.
Salameh projects that European consumers will see a price rise of 3%-5% from €37-€38 ($39-$40) per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2025.
Gas prices have been on the rise since July, according to Bloomberg. The upward trend was facilitated by chilly weather and plummeting wind generation this year.
“The recent spike in gas prices in Europe is due to worry about gas supplies in this coming winter particularly if it is a cold winter”, Salameh continues. “At the heart of this worry is the expiration of the contract on January 1 between Ukraine and Gazprom allowing shipments of Russian gas via Ukraine.”
Ukraine is about to stop the transit of Russia's gas through its territory by the end of the year, which could affect several European states including Austria and Slovakia. For its part, Hungary has already secured Russian gas supplies through the Turkish Stream pipeline.
"There is another major factor, namely the head of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyden talking about total banning of both Russian piped gas and LNG,” continues the pundit.
“However, increases in EU imports of American LNG will cause the economic outlook for the EU economy to worsen further, particularly that the price of US LNG is estimated at 2-3 times higher than Russian piped gas. The EU projected economic growth in 2024 is 0.5% but it is doubtful it will make it."