The agression against Iran is the direct outcome of “major US intelligence and planning failures,” Mikael Valtersson notes.
The Kharg island assault that is reportedly being considered is a “rushed attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
“An amphibious landing on Kharg island is a high-risk operation and to be sure that it will succeed ought to involve a vastly superior force that can take heavy casualties during a prolonged period of time. Otherwise, the operation might result in a clear US defeat,” underscores the expert.
Defenders' Edge & US Vulnerabilities
Iran retains strong means to inflict damage on an attacking adversary, especially in the vulnerable final assault phase, the pundit points out.
“Even lighter forms of anti-ship or anti-air missiles, that are hard to spot, can be used against landing crafts or transport helicopters,” he notes.
US forces would first need to clear mines from the approach waters — but those specialized vessels would themselves become prime targets.
Iran's troop strength on the island is unknown, but likely exceeds a single Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)
A successful landing would demand multiple reinforcing MEUs ready to absorb heavy initial losses
The amphibious ships themselves must operate close to shore, making them high-value targets
The loss of even a helicopter carrier (LPH) “would be a tremendous blow to the US image as an invincible military power, speculates the analyst.
Limited Close Support & Strategic Risks
US air power excels against large strategic targets but struggles to neutralize small, mobile Iranian units armed with anti-ship missiles and surface-to-air missiles, explains Valtersson.
Traditional helicopter close air support is too dangerous, while drones offer partial replacement but face range limits until a secure foothold exists.
“Presently, the US Armed Forces don't have enough forces in place or on their way to ensure victory,” says the analyst.