Biden May Survive Weak Democratic Primaries But Unlikely to Top Trump Rematch
© AP Photo / Jacquelyn Martin
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WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The Democratic Party's elite will probably ensure no strong contender emerges to challenge President Joe Biden in the primary vote, although he will likely lose in a close race to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 general election, assuming the latter stays out of jail, analysts told Sputnik.
Earlier this week, the 80-year-old president, the oldest man ever to hold the office, announced he would run again for reelection next year. Biden made the announcement just as his approval rating hit an all-time low, 37%, in the latest Gallup survey released on Thursday.
However, two early election polls have him as the clear front-runner to win the Democratic Party's nomination, securing an average of 66% of votes, followed by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. with 20% and Marianne Williamson with 8.5%.
Eurasia Center Vice President Earl Rasmussen said he believed Biden made a bad decision in choosing to run again, given his age and diminishing cognitive abilities, but his renomination appeared assured.
"There really are no other strong candidates, at least none clearly visible currently," Rasmussen told Sputnik. "There really is no one else that has the support of the Democrat elite."
Nevertheless, the potential for a surprise long-shot grassroots challenger from outside the political establishment did exist, Rasmussen advised, although the powers that be may not let it happen.
"Robert Kennedy, Jr. has potential, however, it appears that the political elite are not in his corner," Rasmussen said. "Hence, similar to Tulsi Gabbard in 2020, Mr. Kennedy will also see challenges from the political establishment."
Unlikely to Beat Trump
Meanwhile, Trump clearly dominates the Republican field. According to the average of the past seven surveys posted on poll aggregator Real Clear Politics (RCP), Trump would easily win the Republican nomination if the primary were held today.
Trump would secure over 50% of the vote, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (23%), former Vice President Mike Pence (5.4%), and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (3.9%), followed by seven other candidates with less than 4% of the vote.
In terms of challengers in the Republican primary, Rasmussen said DeSantis would be a good candidate, but cannot see him beating Trump.
"Governor DeSantis is a very good governor and has a following. He does not have the international experience nor the charisma that Mr. Trump does," Rasmussen said. "Based on Mr. Trump's appearances, his popularity remains strong especially among his base."
Rasmussen thinks a Trump-Biden general election will be a "close one."
28 April 2023, 03:58 GMT
"While there were definitely some questionable practices in the last presidential election, Mr. Trump's continual comments following his loss has not garnered him additional support," Rasmussen said.
"However, the weaponization of the Justice Department and the recent indictment of Mr. Trump seems to have strengthened support for Trump."
Trump's RCP average job approval rating on April 28 of 2019 was 43.1%, versus Biden's current score of 42.9%. Moreover, the RCP average shows Trump edging out Biden in a 2024 rematch by less than one percent.
Former hedge fund manager and political commentator Charles Ortel, however, believes Biden has "little chance" of winning in a rematch against Trump.
In 2020, Ortel argued, the theory that a veteran senator and former vice president could unite the nation and manage it smoothly was "saleable." But not anymore, he added, because Biden has done significant damage to the country and its allies during his first term.
"Unless Trump is jailed for felonies, I believe he can handily beat Biden on Election Day 2024," Ortel told Sputnik.
Trend Research Journal publisher and former Wall Street hedge fund manager Gerald Celente said the only reason Biden beat Trump in 2020 was the strong turnout by Trump-haters. Celente also pointed out that a recent Rasmussen poll indicated Biden's job approval was lower than Trump's at this point in his presidency.
However, Celente also said he thinks there is a Democratic Party candidate that could beat Trump: RFK Jr.
"While the mainstream media diminished RFK Jr's chances of success, considering his anti-war, anti-big corporation control, he stands a strong chance of winning the Democratic nomination and, minus a wild card, winning the presidency," Celente predicted.
Kennedy announced his presidential bid on Wednesday in Boston, Massachusetts, vowing he would serve as a truth-teller intent on ending "the division."
Aside from his family ties, Kennedy was initially known as an author and environmental lawyer who advocated for clean water initiatives before becoming a prominent voice in the anti-vaccine movement. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, his name continued to gain notoriety for his anti-vaccine stance.
