https://sputnikglobe.com/20230925/how-to-prevent-a-third-world-war-1113589290.html
How to Prevent World War Three
How to Prevent World War Three
Sputnik International
Sputnik has published an excerpt from an article by Sergei Karaganov, Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. The full text of the article will appear in the journal in the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
2023-09-25T07:17+0000
2023-09-25T07:17+0000
2023-09-29T06:40+0000
analysis
russia
opinion
sergei karaganov
world
us
ukraine
weapons of mass destruction (wmd)
nuclear weapons
europe
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The crisis surrounding Ukraine is a symptom of a much more dangerous disease afflicting the global system. For many years now, I have written about the growing threat of the third, and perhaps the last for human civilisation, world war. This threat is escalating before our very eyes.The primary sources of this threat reside in the moral, political, intellectual, social, and economic multi-level crisis plaguing the bulk of the collective West, which has been imposing its interests and rules on the world over the past five centuries.A massive realignment of global power, unprecedented in intensity and speed, is underway. The West is engaged in a desperate final battle to preserve its dominance which allowed it to exploit the rest of humanity and suppress other civilisations.A seismic shift is taking place in global geopolitics, geostrategy, and geoeconomics, and it is gaining momentum. New continents are rising, and global problems are worsening.The emergence of new sources of friction and conflicts is inevitable. We must, already now, erect a psycho-political barrier to prevent them from escalating into military conflicts, and reinstate the fear of nuclear war that saved the world during the Cold War. The rivalry structure in a multipolar world, which will also be a nuclear multipolar world, will be far more complex. We must incorporate safety mechanisms into these systems, with the main one being fear of nuclear Armageddon, which can dissuade and civilise elites.Unintentionally, we are allowing the global situation to deteriorate in the worst possible direction. In Ukraine, we have finally stood up to the United States/West, but we have so far let them grab the initiative in matters of escalation. They continuously expand and deepen their aggression by supplying increasingly deadly and dangerous weapons. We are allowing them to convince themselves that escalation can go unpunished. They are the aggressors, but without setting firm limits to them, we are in a way appeasing them.Inadvertently, we contributed to the unchecked growth of the Western aggression with our nuclear doctrine. Blithely, if not irresponsibly, it raised the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Americans and their vassals are exploiting this; they have unleashed and are waging a big war against a major nuclear power, which previously was thought to be unthinkable.The situation is further aggravated by the evident degradation of Western elites. It will only get worse in the foreseeable future. Each new call from Western leaders is more foolish, reckless, and ideologically charged than the previous one, making it more dangerous for the world. They are consciously fuelling the disintegration of their societies by promoting anti-human values. Any recovery, if and when it occurs, will likely be beyond the horizon and probably come to fruition only after a catharsis.I do not see any chance to awaken a sense of self-preservation in the Western global elites other than through an escalation of the nuclear threat, hopefully without having to take that to its conclusion in reality. However, the adversary must be aware of our leadership and society's unwavering commitment to take this step in case of utmost necessity. We need to restore belief in hell for those who have lost it.Objectively, the systemic crisis that emerged in 2008 is pushing the world toward a big war. It is plaguing modern globalist capitalism that is devoid of moral foundations and is based on the unending growth of consumption that is destroying the planet.The resulting depletion of many resources, environmental pollution, climate change, growing social inequality, and erosion of the middle class, as well as the growing dysfunction of the political systems in the developed countries are discussed extensively but very little is being or can be done as they are confined by the dogmas of democratic liberalism and globalism. Tensions are mounting right before our eyes. It is becoming increasingly difficult to divert attention from unsolvable challenges by using the COVID pandemic or sowing hostility towards outsiders (blaming authoritarian Russians or totalitarian Chinese for everything), or fuelling what are essentially regional conflicts (Ukraine). The pimples are coming to a head.The danger of a major war is exacerbated by the development of military technologies and more deadly systems that are increasingly controlled by artificial intelligence. It's good that we in Russia have made headway in hypersonic technology, and we need to keep on working. Soon, however, others will catch up, and many countries, including nuclear ones, will have the capability to deliver nearly instantaneous strikes. Nervousness, the likelihood of errors and suspicion will intensify.A new revolution in the defence technology has begun. Just look at the mass production of relatively cheap drones. Just five years ago, in 2018, a drone attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia looked exotic. Now, it's commonplace. Besides everything else, drones are almost perfectly suited for terrorist attacks, even ones involving weapons of mass destruction which, amid rampant mistrust, if not hatred, could easily trigger a big war.Mutual demonisation - which we are using as a tit-for-tat response - lowers moral barriers that keep from the use of force. Even now, to fight the hated Russians, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are being sent to their deaths. Clearly, many more are dying from the collapse of infrastructure and healthcare. These victims are either completely forgotten or deliberately downplayed. Clearly, there is an even worse attitude toward demonised Russians. Russophobia has reached almost unprecedented proportions, perhaps comparable to how the Nazis viewed Slavs and Jews. Indeed, what we ourselves now feel toward not just the leaders but the residents of Western countries as well is, at the very least, disdain. A pre-war atmosphere is rapidly forming, both morally and psychologically. We don't see normal people anymore. Or we see those who have been deceived. But they certainly don't see us as normal.Modern information technology and the internet have led not so much to the rise of mass enlightenment, as was hoped, but to increased opportunities for manipulation and, in all likelihood, to a widespread intellectual degradation. This is particularly true of the public elites, which we can observe.The overall result is an almost unprecedented level of mistrust and suspicion among major powers that have of late become open rivals. This is happening against the backdrop of a broken dialogue system and the collapse of the arms control system, which, while not always useful and sometimes even harmful in the past, at least provided channels of communication between leading military powers.To reiterate, the most undeniable development is the unprecedented rapid redistribution of global power from the West to the Global Majority, with Russia being historically designated as its military and political core.Humanity is facing an existential challenge to prevent the inexorably approaching catastrophe of the Third World War within the next decade or so by forcing the West, primarily the United States, to step back and adapt to the new reality. To achieve this, we need to compel their “deep state” to refresh, as much as possible, the ruling elites, whose low quality does not meet the challenges facing humanity today. The falling West may drag everyone along, including its deep state.Rising great China does not seem to be ready to take on this challenge. They have relatively little experience in global diplomacy, including military power diplomacy. So, it’s a question of “who, if not us?”It appears that preventing a global disaster and liberating countries and peoples from hegemony and hegemons, defending state sovereignty and the human and divine being in each person is the mission of our Russian multiethnic people in modern world history. It is the external component of our national and state cultural programme, the “Russian dream and idea” we are still either searching for or fearing to formulate for ourselves and the world.However, even in such a potentially fairer world, there will be need to strengthen the “fuse,” the reliance on nuclear deterrence. New giants will enter the stage, and they will inevitably engage in a competition. The intensification of the nuclear factor with the terror it instils is necessary to prevent the inevitable rivalry from escalating into hostilities. Therefore, if nuclear weapons will have to be used (God forbid), the strike should be of a sufficiently large proportion.If nuclear weapons are used on a small scale, with a yield of several kilotonnes, it could potentially win us a war but would destroy the fear that had preserved relative peace for three-quarters of a century. Nuclear weapons would become “usable.” I’m aware that I was joined by some colleagues in the West in my fear of limited nuclear exchanges between India and Pakistan in this context. The world would not collapse, but the sacrosanct fear of nuclear weapons would disappear. Fear would be restored if it were to be used in Europe, since it still plays the key role in the global media agenda. But, I reiterate, heaven forbid that ever comes to pass and pray that one could avoid using the weapon of God to bring sense to those, who have lost it.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230730/blinken-says-nuclear-war-threat-no-worse-than-climate-change-1112268168.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20221011/no-the-worlds-not-heading-for-a-nuclear-apocalypse-heres-why-1101734791.html
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russia, us, ukraine, ukraine conflict, war in ukraine, world war three, nuclear war, threat of nuclear war, nuclear armageddon, nuclear escalation, western elites, us establishment, global south, brics, global majority, fairer multipolar system, western colonialism, western dominance, western hegemony, nato expansion, escalation in ukraine
russia, us, ukraine, ukraine conflict, war in ukraine, world war three, nuclear war, threat of nuclear war, nuclear armageddon, nuclear escalation, western elites, us establishment, global south, brics, global majority, fairer multipolar system, western colonialism, western dominance, western hegemony, nato expansion, escalation in ukraine
The crisis surrounding Ukraine is a symptom of a much more dangerous disease afflicting the global system. For many years now, I have written about the growing threat of the third, and perhaps the last for human civilisation, world war. This threat is escalating before our very eyes.
The primary sources of this threat reside in the moral, political, intellectual, social, and economic multi-level crisis plaguing the bulk of the collective
West, which has been imposing its interests and rules on the world over the past five centuries.
A massive realignment of global power, unprecedented in intensity and speed, is underway. The West is engaged in a desperate final battle to preserve its dominance which allowed it to exploit the rest of humanity and suppress other civilisations.
A seismic shift is taking place in global geopolitics, geostrategy, and geoeconomics, and it is gaining momentum. New continents are rising, and global problems are worsening.
The emergence of new sources of friction and conflicts is inevitable. We must, already now, erect a psycho-political barrier to prevent them from escalating into military conflicts, and reinstate the fear of nuclear war that saved the world during the Cold War. The rivalry structure in a multipolar world, which will also be a nuclear multipolar world, will be far more complex. We must incorporate safety mechanisms into these systems, with the main one being fear of nuclear Armageddon, which can dissuade and civilise elites.
Unintentionally, we are allowing the global situation to
deteriorate in the worst possible direction. In Ukraine, we have finally stood up to the United States/West, but we have so far let them grab the initiative in matters of escalation. They continuously expand and deepen their aggression by supplying increasingly deadly and dangerous weapons. We are allowing them to convince themselves that escalation can go unpunished. They are the aggressors, but without setting firm limits to them, we are in a way appeasing them.
Inadvertently, we contributed to the unchecked growth of the Western aggression with our nuclear doctrine. Blithely, if not irresponsibly, it raised the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
Americans and their vassals are exploiting this; they have unleashed and are waging a big war against a major nuclear power, which previously was thought to be unthinkable.
11 October 2022, 17:57 GMT
The situation is further aggravated by the evident degradation of Western elites. It will only get worse in the foreseeable future. Each new call from Western leaders is more foolish, reckless, and ideologically charged than the previous one, making it more dangerous for the world. They are consciously fuelling the disintegration of their societies by promoting anti-human values. Any recovery, if and when it occurs, will likely be beyond the horizon and probably come to fruition only after a catharsis.
I do not see any chance to awaken a sense of self-preservation in the Western global elites other than through an escalation of the nuclear threat, hopefully without having to take that to its conclusion in reality. However, the adversary must be aware of our leadership and society's unwavering commitment to take this step in case of utmost necessity. We need to restore belief in hell for those who have lost it.
Objectively, the systemic crisis that emerged in 2008 is pushing the world toward a big war. It is plaguing modern globalist capitalism that is devoid of moral foundations and is based on the unending growth of consumption that is destroying the planet.
The resulting depletion of many resources, environmental pollution, climate change, growing social inequality, and erosion of the middle class, as well as the growing dysfunction of the political systems in the developed countries are discussed extensively but very little is being or can be done as they are confined by the dogmas of democratic liberalism and globalism. Tensions are mounting right before our eyes. It is becoming increasingly difficult to divert attention from unsolvable challenges by using the COVID pandemic or sowing hostility towards outsiders (blaming authoritarian Russians or totalitarian Chinese for everything), or fuelling what are essentially regional conflicts (Ukraine). The pimples are coming to a head.
The danger of a
major war is exacerbated by the development of military technologies and more deadly systems that are increasingly controlled by artificial intelligence. It's good that we in Russia have made headway in hypersonic technology, and we need to keep on working. Soon, however, others will catch up, and many countries, including nuclear ones, will have the capability to deliver nearly instantaneous strikes. Nervousness, the likelihood of errors and suspicion will intensify.
A new revolution in the defence technology has begun. Just look at the mass production of relatively
cheap drones. Just five years ago, in 2018, a drone attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia looked exotic. Now, it's commonplace. Besides everything else, drones are almost perfectly suited for terrorist attacks, even ones involving weapons of mass destruction which, amid rampant mistrust, if not hatred, could easily trigger a big war.
Mutual demonisation - which we are using as a tit-for-tat response - lowers moral barriers that keep from the use of force. Even now, to fight the hated Russians, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are being sent to their deaths. Clearly, many more are dying from the collapse of infrastructure and healthcare. These victims are either completely forgotten or deliberately downplayed. Clearly, there is an even worse attitude toward demonised Russians. Russophobia has reached almost unprecedented proportions, perhaps comparable to how the
Nazis viewed Slavs and
Jews. Indeed, what we ourselves now feel toward not just the leaders but the residents of Western countries as well is, at the very least, disdain. A pre-war atmosphere is rapidly forming, both morally and psychologically. We don't see normal people anymore. Or we see those who have been deceived. But they certainly don't see us as normal.
Modern information technology and the internet have led not so much to the rise of mass enlightenment, as was hoped, but to increased opportunities for manipulation and, in all likelihood, to a widespread intellectual degradation. This is particularly true of the public elites, which we can observe.
The overall result is an almost unprecedented level of mistrust and suspicion among major powers that have of late become open rivals. This is happening against the backdrop of a broken dialogue system and the collapse of the arms control system, which, while not always useful and sometimes even harmful in the past, at least provided channels of communication between leading military powers.
To reiterate, the most undeniable development is the unprecedented rapid redistribution of global power from the West to the Global Majority, with Russia being historically designated as its military and political core.
To reiterate, the most undeniable development is the unprecedented rapid redistribution of global power from the West to the Global Majority, with Russia being historically designated as its military and political core.
Humanity is facing an existential challenge to prevent the inexorably approaching catastrophe of the Third World War within the next decade or so by forcing the West, primarily the United States, to step back and adapt to the new reality. To achieve this, we need to compel their “
deep state” to refresh, as much as possible, the ruling elites, whose low quality does not meet the challenges facing humanity today. The falling West may drag everyone along, including its deep state.
Rising great China does not seem to be ready to take on this challenge. They have relatively little experience in global diplomacy, including military power diplomacy. So, it’s a question of “who, if not us?”
It appears that preventing a global disaster and liberating countries and peoples from hegemony and hegemons, defending state sovereignty and the human and divine being in each person is the mission of our Russian multiethnic people in modern world history. It is the external component of our national and state cultural programme, the “Russian dream and idea” we are still either searching for or fearing to formulate for ourselves and the world.
If we manage to avoid a global disaster, two decades from now, the world will establish a new balance of power and a much fairer, multicolored, and multicultural international system. If not, we can not only fall into exhaustion from the confrontation with the West on the fields of Ukraine but also get ourselves and everyone else a world war in the end.
However, even in such a potentially fairer world, there will be need to strengthen the “fuse,” the reliance on nuclear deterrence. New giants will enter the stage, and they will inevitably engage in a competition. The intensification of the nuclear factor with the terror it instils is necessary to prevent the inevitable rivalry from escalating into hostilities. Therefore, if nuclear weapons will have to be used (God forbid), the strike should be of a sufficiently large proportion.
If nuclear weapons are used on a small scale, with a yield of several kilotonnes, it could potentially win us a war but would destroy the fear that had preserved relative peace for three-quarters of a century. Nuclear weapons would become “usable.” I’m aware that I was joined by some colleagues in the West in my fear of limited nuclear exchanges between India and Pakistan in this context. The world would not collapse, but the sacrosanct fear of nuclear weapons would disappear. Fear would be restored if it were to be used in Europe, since it still plays the key role in the global media agenda. But, I reiterate, heaven forbid that ever comes to pass and pray that one could avoid using the weapon of God to bring sense to those, who have lost it.
