‘Very Sensitive’: Failure of Biden’s Israel Trip Would be ‘Curse’ on 2024 Election Campaign
17:07 GMT 17.10.2023 (Updated: 09:23 GMT 05.12.2023)
© AP Photo / Michel Euler
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The two-state solution agreed upon in Oslo in 1993 remains the only viable path toward peace between Israelis and Palestinians, a Saudi expert told Sputnik. Sadly, the US has long since given up its leadership role in guiding either party toward such a solution.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Tuesday that US President Joe Biden would visit Israel in the coming days as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) prepare to launch a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Speaking in the Israeli coastal city of Tel Aviv, Blinken said Biden would “reaffirm the United States’ solidarity with Israel and our ironclad commitment to its security,” and would “receive a comprehensive brief on Israel’s war aims and strategy” as it amasses 350,000 troops to invade Gaza.
Having traveled to Israel a day prior, Blinken has pressured the Israeli government to allow humanitarian corridors to open into Gaza, which has been under “complete siege” for more than a week. The IDF bombing campaign has killed more than 2,800 in Gaza since October 7, when Hamas launched an unprecedented raid into Israeli territory that killed more than 1,300 Israelis in several border settlements near Gaza.
Blinken said Biden would oversee implementation of “a plan that will enable humanitarian aid from donor nations and multilateral organizations to reach civilians in Gaza” without “benefiting” Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip.
Riyadh-based political analyst Dr. Ahmed al-Ibrahim told Sputnik on Tuesday that regional trust had waned in Washington’s ability or willingness to mediate the 75-year-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, but noted that the conflict would continue until both sides are willing to make hard choices to satisfy the others’ concerns.
“Traditionally, the United States is the custodian of Israel and they have unlimited support for Israel. Biden wants to show that to the world - that the United States is standing behind Israel at anything that Israel needs and has unconditional support for the Israelis. Of course, let's not forget that he's taking this opportunity to position himself [in] the presidential election that's coming up, so he can get the Jewish votes inside the United States and show that he can turn things in the Middle East and use it in the favor of Israel.”
“Definitely, this is going to be held as a kind of campaign for Biden, that he can still solve issues in the Middle East, and he's going to use it for his campaign,” Dr. Al-Ibrahim said, noting that ”it is very sensitive. It is not uncomplicated, because if he does not do it right, this thing is going to accelerate so much that it will be beyond control. So if Biden doesn't come with the right formula in order to solve it, it could be a curse on his election in 2024.”
Dr. Al-Ibrahim said that after arriving in Israel, Biden would most likely not attempt to position himself as a mediator in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, but to support Israel as it prepares for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which the commentator said would be “a big mistake.”
“It's only going to fuel [strife in] the whole Middle East and it's going to fuel probably 2 billion Muslims and 2.5 billion Christians. Palestine belongs to the great three religions and this is only going to put the Jewish state at stake, at risk, if these kinds of things are going to be done wrongly.”
“We know that Gaza is the most geographically dense location in the world. However, we all agree, Saudi Arabia agreed from before, that Hamas is not the government that should control Gaza. It should be another government, not radical, like Hamas. And this issue needs to be put on the table. If Biden doesn't balance the situation between the Palestinians and the Israelis, this can be expanded geographically. And it's a very sensitive issue for the Israelis right now and for the Palestinians to really have a permanent solution and to go back to the two-state solution. This is what basically [Saudi] Prince Mohammed bin Salman has conveyed very strongly to Secretary Blinken,” Dr. Al-Ibrahim said.
16 October 2023, 17:39 GMT
However, Dr. Al-Ibrahim said that people in the Middle East have “given up” on US policy in the region and “lost trust” that any American politician is actually interested in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“Is it incompetency? Is it the strategy? Nobody knows. The Middle East region lives off of conspiracies, these conspiracies are an issue with them. The Palestinian file is very close and dear to the Middle Eastern people and they are looking at the Palestinians and they see that their rights have been taken, and the Israelis are only gaining more land and not giving anything to the Palestinians - no dignities, no land, nothing.”
“Everybody blames America in this region for what's happening, everybody. It's not necessarily that they have an evil strategy in order to execute things,” he explained. “It's maybe incompetence. They are looking at the matters in their own country and not getting them right. Look at Iraq, look at Afghanistan, look at Ukraine - look at all these countries. The war starts, and there is no right execution, chaos and hell starts happening in the region. So if you look at things historically, America has not been executing things right.”
As a result, Dr. Al-Ibrahim said “there’s no trust” of the United States in the region. “That's why they left a vacuum for the Chinese, and China went in and brokered the deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.”
“So obviously the stakeholder that's holding this file is not trusted by the people and by the leaders, in my opinion. So it has to be changed. And I'm telling you, if [former US President Donald] Trump was in the presidency, things might have taken a different route. But with this kind of administration we have, with this kind of policy that they are producing, the Middle Eastern people have no trust on the situation,” he added.
16 October 2023, 18:47 GMT
However, Dr. Al-Ibrahim said that if the Israelis and Palestinians failed to reach an agreement while Biden is present, it would be a failure for both the Americans and the Israelis. Such talks would be extremely tough, but “people need to give arm and a leg in order to reach a solution,” he said, which must satisfy both Israeli and Palestinian concerns.
“We already see the failure in the security and all the precautions that we've been mesmerized with for the past decades, about how strong Israel is at the border. And now Hamas did that [attack], and they actually went inside Israel and they occupied territories. This is only putting Israel at a risk. And you cannot live in that geographical area by pushing the Palestinians out of their own country. They need to have a way of relation, of coexisting.”
“In order for this to succeed and for the Israeli-Palestinian file to be done, the American administration needs to listen to Saudi Arabia and Egypt and really work with them and be fair about the decision they are going to make. And Israel needs to be put at the table and they need to be mandated to work with everybody to the best situation that it can be. Israel cannot push Hamas into the sea or cannot push it to Sinai. The Palestinian people have dignity. The Israeli people need their security. This cannot continue.”
“They need to listen to their true allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to move. If you're sitting 10,000 kilometers away in the Congress or in the White House, and trying to make a decision about this region, this is more complex and more complicated than anybody can think. This is the only way. In order to satisfy this file, this region needs everybody to agree on how things are done. They put their solutions on the table, and all the Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are going to make it implemented for the Palestinian Authority. But it needs Israel to be at the table and to accept the way that they move forward, giving the Palestinian people their dignity back and giving Israel their security back.”
“They need to listen to their true allies in the region, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to move. If you're sitting 10,000 kilometers away in the Congress or in the White House, and trying to make a decision about this region, this is more complex and more complicated than anybody can think. This is the only way. In order to satisfy this file, this region needs everybody to agree on how things are done. They put their solutions on the table, and all the Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, are going to make it implemented for the Palestinian Authority. But it needs Israel to be at the table and to accept the way that they move forward, giving the Palestinian people their dignity back and giving Israel their security back.”
