UK Tories Face 'Prospect of General Election Defeat' After Shock By-Election Losses
06:39 GMT 21.10.2023 (Updated: 08:51 GMT 21.10.2023)
© AFP 2023 / JUSTIN TALLIS
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The shock results of two by-elections in the United Kingdom come as the country has been suffering economic woes, such as an increased rate of unemployment and deepening recession risks, with surveys showing that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's performance has fallen to an approval rating of 24 percent.
The UK Conservative Party of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is facing the dismal prospect of being defeated by the Labour Party at the next General Election after the opposition achieved two impressive by-election gains on Friday, polling pundits cited by media reports warn.
As UK voters chafe at soaring inflation, a weak economy, and looming recession, Labour made history by overturning huge Tory majorities in the constituencies of Mid Bedfordshire, in southern England, and Tamworth, in the West Midlands.
In the predominantly rural constituency of Mid Bedfordshire, deemed a safe Conservative seat for decades, Labour faced a daunting 24,664 Tory majority. Nevertheless, the opposition candidate - Alistair Strathern managed to carry off a swing of 20.5 percent to Labour and won by 1,192 votes.
Screengrab of X post by leader of the UK Labour Party Sir Keir Starmer.
© Photo : Keir_Starmer/X
The Mid Bedfordshire seat had been up for grabs after former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries stood down, miffed at not having received a peerage. Dorries had announced she would leave in June, after being denied a seat in the House of Lords in the resignation honors of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Screengrab of X post by Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party.
© Photo : Keir_Starmer/X
Screengrab of X post by Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the UK Labour Party.
© Photo : Keir_Starmer/X
In Tamworth, Staffordshire, Labour’s candidate Sarah Edwards overturned a 19,000 Tory majority, swinging 23.9 points. After her win, Edwards urged Rishi Sunak to “do the decent thing and call a general election".
The Tamworth seat had become vacant in the wake of the scandal involving Chris Pincher. The former Deputy Chief Whip had lost an appeal against a proposed suspension from the House of Commons over groping allegations, which he vehemently denied.
Boris Johnson, who resigned as Britain's Prime Minster in July 2022, battled numerous scandals throughout his tenure, with Partygate being one of the most headline-grabbing. But it was the embarrassing groping row involving Chris Pincher, his deputy chief whip, that culminated in Johnson's exit from No10.
The elated leader of the Labour Party, Sir Keir Starmer, hailed the results in the by-elections as a “game changer,” and claimed that the opposition was “redrawing the political map” ahead of a general election that must take place in the country no later than 28 January 2025.
“Each of these results is extraordinary – it’s history in the making, and I think that reflects the fact we are a changed Labour party, that we are putting a positive case for change. After 13 years of failure and decline under this Conservative government, I think people are looking for change,” the leader of the UK opposition told the media.
'Disappointing' Results
Rishi Sunak acknowledged that the results were “obviously disappointing”, but argued that it was “important to remember the context”. “Mid-term elections are always difficult for incumbent governments... And of course there are also local factors at play here," said the PM.
The Conservative Party has been reeling from the scale of the by-election losses.
Right-wing Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, a Boris Johnson backer, demanded “far-reaching change now” after the shock results. Tory peer and former party treasurer Peter, Lord Cruddas - another supporter of Johnson - went on record as saying that “clearly Rishi Sunak isn’t working as leader of our party”.
“Local council elections, by-elections defeats everywhere. Rishi’s record is dire and Tories are heading for electoral disaster under Sunak. Things need to change starting at the top,” Cruddas was cited as saying.
Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands conceded that the “disappointing” results indicated that voters were “unhappy with the government”, and that the Conservative Party would “have a job to do to win them back”.
Sunak's Dismal Approval Rating
The by-election results come as Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives currently trail Labour by at least 20 points in national polling. The results of the by-elections feed into looming prospects of a crushing electoral defeat for the Conservatives, according to John Curtice, UK polling expert and politics professor at Strathclyde University.
"It is reasonable to argue that the Conservative Party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily, and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997,” Curtice was cited by the media as saying.
The loss by the Conservative Party of safe parliamentary seats comes as the UK's unemployment rate of 4.3 percent has been seen by experts as the portent of an impending recession, with a rise anticipated in 2024. Furthermore, the problems plaguing the UK job market present the possibility of an economic downturn just before the 2024 general election.
Only 24 percent of people in the United Kingdom approve of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's performance, further continuing the downward trend of the previous few weeks, and 49 percent disapprove of him, an Opinium poll found in September. Based on the results of the survey, opposition Labor Party leader Keir Starmer boasted a 28 percent approval rating. He also beats Sunak on the issue of who would make a better prime minister, with 27 percent of respondents choosing him, and 23 percent opting for Sunak.
