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Rise of Right: How Ukraine Conflict and Gaza War Affect EU's Political Balance

© AFP 2023 / Andreas ArnoldSupporters of Germany's anti-euro party Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative fur Deutschland) party
Supporters of Germany's anti-euro party Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative fur Deutschland) party - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.11.2023
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Ukraine and Gaza appear to have boosted the further rise of European conservative parties before the 2024 EU parliamentary elections, while the liberal establishment is losing grip.
Populist right-wing politician Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party's (PVV) victory in the Dutch general elections last week was described as "shocking", "surprising" and nothing short of "nightmarish" by the Western mainstream press.
Indeed, Wilders personifies everything that the EU liberal establishment despises: he is an ardent Eurosceptic, he is anti-immigrant; he warns against the "Islamization of the Netherlands", calls for halting aid to Ukraine and opposes "hysterical Russophobia" in Europe.
However, what struck the observers was that not long ago, Wilders' Freedom Party polled at just 10% of the vote, but this time round managed to gain 37 of the 150 seats with 25% of the votes cast.
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David Paul Goldman, an American economic strategist and author, has suggested that the October 7 surprise attack by Hamas and subsequent pro-Palestine demonstrations across the Old Continent contributed to Wilders' win. The strategist called the demonstrations "a triumphalist assertion of power by a minority that believes that it may become the future majority."
"Migration, legal and illegal, is transforming the character of European society. Officially, about 7% of the populations of France, Britain and Germany are Muslim migrants, but the actual numbers are higher," Goldman noted in his latest essay for the Asia Times.
An anti-immigrant sentiment, promoted by European conservative parties, received an additional boost in October, following the Hamas attack, according to the author. He remarked that the European right largely supports Israel.

Thus, 59% of Germans signaled they fear a mass terror attack in their own country, with just 27% believing terror attacks were unlikely, as per a YouGov's November poll. Prior to that, on October 19, a Muslim demonstration morphed into a riot in Berlin’s Neukoelln district. Goldman noted that the unrest erupted after an Islamist Telegram channel called on its followers to "turn Neukoelln into the Gaza Strip", according to Bild-Zeitung.

Before the Gaza crisis, the trend had been driven by the Ukraine conflict, per Goldman. European conservative parties have signaled skepticism about the EU spending millions on arming Ukraine as well as anti-Russia sanctions that immediately backfired on Europe's energy sector.
Thus, in Germany – the G7 economy that officially fell into recession in the first quarter of 2023 – right-wing parties have seen a spike in popularity since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is currently polling 21%, being second only to CDU/CSU (30%) and outpacing the SPD (16%), Greens (14%), Free Democratic Party (5%), and The Left (4%).
Residents of Berlin spend their time in front of the Bundestag building on the day of the parliamentary election, 26 September 2021 - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.02.2023
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The AfD is openly against the Western proxy war in Ukraine: "We are right now sacrificing the Ukrainian youth in this moronic war: a war that could have easily been avoided," Maximilian Krah, an AfD leader and a member of the EU parliament, told American Conservative in late October. Per him, the conflict is "about America’s ambition to push back against Russia (...) It is a war for world order," he said.
This skepticism is shared by conservative Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban who has long opposed Ukraine's militarization and has recently threatened to block all European Union aid for Ukraine unless EU leaders review their entire Kiev strategy.
"The European Council should take stock of the implementation and effectiveness of our current policies towards Ukraine including various assistance programs," Orban wrote in a letter addressed to European Council chief Charles Michel earlier this week.
A September survey by the French ViaVoice Institute indicated that Marine Le Pen's right-wing National Rally party is likewise outpacing her political rivals in terms of voter confidence, with 20% of respondents backing the French ultra-conservatives, 15% supporting President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Renaissance (15%), while the leftist coalition NUPES, and conservative Les Républicains got 14% and 13%, respectively. Le Pen has consistently criticized Macron for his warmongering over Ukraine and warned against a possible direct conflict with Russia.
One must admit that the European anti-war sentiment with regard to Ukraine is pushed not only by the European right: left-wing Smer, headed by former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico – who repeatedly subjected Kiev's militarization to sharp criticism – came out on top in the country's September elections.
However, the rise of the right is taking place ahead of the 2024 European Parliament election which is scheduled to be held on June 6-9. Time will tell what the balance of power will be after the vote, "As the tectonic plates of European politics shift, none of the old Shibboleths will apply," Goldman concluded in his op-ed.
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