Ex-Pentagon Analyst: US Army Restructuring to Potentially Take on Russia and China is 'Crazy'
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The US Army is cutting its force by 24,000 and restructuring to be capable of fighting the next major wars as it struggles to recruit new troops, according to a new service document titled "Army Force Structure Transformation." What's behind the overhaul?
The cuts will diminish the US Army's size from roughly 494,000 to 470,000 troops by fiscal year 2029. According to the US press, counterinsurgency jobs, which increased during Washington's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, will be slashed first.
"We [the US] are moving away from counterterrorism and counterinsurgency; we want to be postured for large-scale combat operations," US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth told reporters on February 27.
"They're once again looking to the older conventional type of warfare on the battlefields, such as what they're witnessing now in Ukraine," Michael Maloof, former senior security policy analyst in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told Sputnik.
"I hope we don't ever get to that. We [the US] need to be pulling our troops back. We need to be shutting down a lot of our bases because they are a magnet for tensions and for wreaking havoc around the world. They're no longer needed. You look at the Middle East. We have 35 bases surrounding Iran. They're meant to be for deterrence. But we have seen that deterrence is not working in the Middle East. And now they become prime targets. And as a consequence, they become the American Achilles heel because of exposure."
Given that the US Army - as well as the entire Department of Defense - has changed its overall doctrine toward future wars and direct confrontations with both Russia and China, the announced restructuring effort is not surprising, according to Maloof.
"They're looking back once again to large armies fighting each other," the military expert remarked.
The army transformation also envisages improving anti-drone and air defense capabilities.
As per the document, it is planning to add:
Four additional Indirect Fire Protection Capability (IFPC) battalions, providing a short to medium-range capability to defend against unmanned aerial systems, cruise missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars;
Nine counter-small unmanned aerial systems (C-sUAS) batteries nested within IFPC and division air defense battalions;
Four additional Maneuver Short Range Air Defense (M-SHORAD) battalions, which counter low altitude aerial threats, including unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing aircraft, and fixed-wing aircraft.
"Taking into account the fact that technologies on the battlefield are going to be absolutely critical, I think they've learned a lot from the battle with Ukraine. That's giving them some guidance as to where to go. For example, they intend to increase their airborne defenses, drones and electronic warfare," Maloof said.
At the same time, this transformation will be done at the expense of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, he pointed out.
"I think that if you're al-Qaida*, ISIS*, you're going to be jumping for joy because that means the army will have less special forces to deal with them," Maloof remarked.
When asked whether the overhaul was prompted by a lack of troops, he noted that "recruitment in the United States has been way down by all the services except the Marine Corps."
"Younger people are not flocking to the military," he said. "And the only way that you would ever get them into the service will be by a draft, resurrecting the draft. And the American people absolutely do not want the draft. They don't see the imperative."
The Pentagon's military doctrine suggests that the US Army will continue to fight "forever wars", he noted, adding that the Americans are fed up with them.
Moreover, despite neoconservatives' fear-mongering, many in the West don't believe that Russia would invade NATO member states.
The recent Munich Security Index 2024 shows that while in 2023 most G7 countries saw Russia as the "major threat", now it no longer tops the survey's risk bump chart for industrialized economies. In particular, the US ranked Russia fourth, seeing cyberattacks, political polarization, and China as greater threats.
13 February, 16:26 GMT
"We've had 23 years of endless wars. And the American people are really fed up. Plus, now we're trying to support other people's wars at the expense of our own national security by lessening our own borders," Maloof said, referring to the ongoing migrant crisis in the US.
He warned that taking on Russia or China is unlikely to end well for the army.
"We're never going to muster enough troops to counter what Russia is capable of putting together or China or a combination of the two. It's suicidal and it's crazy. We need to be working together in this world and with healthy competition, not military competition," the former Pentagon analyst said.
"We need to acknowledge the fact that countries such as Russia and China have capabilities. And they're now, especially Russia, obviously very battle-tested. Our troops are not. They've only been involved in counterinsurgencies. And if they want large-scale wars, Russia is up to it. They have demonstrated that. And I don't know if that's the direction we want to be going into and for what purpose," he continued.
While Russia, China, Iran and other emerging economies are looking for further collaboration in Eurasia in terms of infrastructure and economic development, Washington is looking for new defense agreements and is seeking to contain both China and Russia.
"So the emphasis is, I think, it's going to probably be rethought once again, especially if there's a change of administrations. Because we cannot continue to have confrontations with the likes of other nuclear weapons powers, such as China and Russia. This is just mindless," Maloof concluded.
*Al-Qaeda and Daesh (ISIS/ISIL) are terrorist organizations banned in Russia and many other countries.
