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Ukraine’s Door to NATO Shut as Likely to 'Weaken Biden's Re-election Chances'

© AFP 2023 / ODD ANDERSENFlags of the Ukraine (L) and the NATO are pictured on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.
Flags of the Ukraine (L) and the NATO are pictured on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.  - Sputnik International, 1920, 09.06.2024
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Washington and Brussels have insisted that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is “inevitable,” but avoided presenting any timeline. In July 2023 a communique released on the first day of the NATO leaders summit in Vilnius included a caveat that Ukraine needs to make further reforms and will only be invited after “allies agree and conditions are met.”
US President Joe Biden has blocked Ukrainian membership of NATO for fear of dashing his re-election hopes.
No matter how hard Ukraine’s Zelensky bangs on NATO’s door, it will remain shut as any invitation could ruin Biden’s chances of winning November's election, Business Insider reported.
"Biden is trying to solidify the idea for the US public that the US is not getting involved so he doesn't weaken his chances of getting reelected," Leo Litra, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the news site.
"No one in NATO and especially not in the US, wants to have to test Article 5," he added.
Article 5 of the NATO Treaty stipulates that an attack on any one member state is an attack on them all.

Some 70 percent of Americans want the Biden administration to push Ukraine toward a negotiated peace with Russia as soon as possible, a February survey from the Harris Poll and the Quincy Institute revealed. Biden's approval rating, meanwhile, fell to its lowest level in nearly two years according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in May. Only 36 percent of US voters approved of Biden’s performance in the White House.

Biden said he was “not prepared for the NATO-isation of Ukraine,” in an interview with Time Magazine recently. Peace “doesn't mean NATO,” he said ahead of the alliance's summit from July 9 to 11.
He also acknowledged witnessing "significant corruption" in Ukraine on visits there during his term as vice president. Instead of NATO accession, the Kiev regime will have to settle for “security guarantees."
Ukraine pinned its hopes on a membership timeline breakthrough at the NATO summit in Washington. But in April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said an agreement on Ukraine's entry into the bloc was not expected at the gathering.
To have that decision, we need all allies to agree, we need consensus, we do not need a majority but actually 32 allies to agree." Stoltenberg said. "I do not except that we will have that agreement by the summit in July."
US envoy to NATO Julianne Smith reiterated that stance in May, promising Kiev a security package as a "bridge" to alliance membership. Labouring the metaphor, Smith said it "will be well-lit and made of steel, and we will do everything we can to help our friends from Ukraine, step by step, walk across that bridge to membership eventually."
Lack of progress on the NATO membership issue is raising tensions in US-Ukrainian relations, the Financial Times reported. When the Vilnius NATO summit in 2023 ended without offering a timeframe for Ukrainian access, Zelensky fumed that the delay was “unprecedented and absurd.
A G7 Joint Declaration made at the summit in Vilnius pledged "long-term security commitments and arrangements" with Ukraine to be negotiated bilaterally.
To date, Ukraine has signed bilateral security agreements with NATO member countries such as the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, and Sweden.
The UK was the first to sign such a deal with Ukraine in January, promising to provide extensive military and financial support to Kiev over the next 10 years. Washington is completing negotiations on its own security agreement with Kiev, a US official was quoted as saying.
US President Joe Biden and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. - Sputnik International, 1920, 30.04.2024
Analysis
Potential Security Agreement Between US and Ukraine Likely ‘Obliges Nothing’
The Kiev regime has criticised those agreements as limited in both scope and enforcement mechanisms, and a poor substitute for NATO membership.
The lack of any specific military aid commitments to Kiev beyond 2024 "reflects the current challenges faced by Ukraine and its allies and divisions within NATO," said Stefan Meister, head of the Eastern Europe program at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Both the US and Germany have vocally oppiosed Ukraine's rapid accession to the alliance. American officials US Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted in April that Ukraine will eventually join NATO, but steered clear of committing to a date. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin even admitted in congressional testimony that Ukrainian membership of NATO goes against Russian national interests.

Ukraine applied for accelerated NATO membership in September 2022. However, despite the bloc’s enlargement running in high gear for decades, the military alliance has shied away from approving Kiev’s application.

After a sweeping post-Cold War expansion in violation of the West's commitment to not move any closer to Russia’s borders, NATO absorbed Finland in March 2023 and Sweden a year later. Moscow has repeatedly warned that the military bloc's ongoing buildup along Russia's borders threatens the country's security.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated that Moscow considers Ukraine's continued non-aligned status vital to ending to the years-long conflict. Kiev’s stated goal of joining the alliance was among the Russia's reasons for launching its special military operation in February 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks at a map in his country at his residence of Novo-Ogaryevo outside Moscow - Sputnik International, 1920, 08.02.2024
Analysis
How NATO’s Obsession With Ukraine Transformed Into Existential Threat to Russian Heartland
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